Excellent article on declining Beyer's of 3yo's

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I will take that answer as an "I don't know and neither do you" ... which is fine...and not untrue.

I'm telling you though ... if you have consistent weather conditions, accurate clockings, a race track that isn't being fooled around with a lot throughout the day, and a reasonable sampling of both sprint and route races to work with ... you will have a figure that is very, very exact. IMO, always within a length or less of reality.

So you are telling me that a beyer figure is generally exact within a length despite having no regard for pace, trip, in most cases weather changes like wind, harrowing of the track, etc? My question is how do you know if the figure is correct? Based on what evidence? It is all just an educated guessing game and when the numbers are 108 versus 105 I'm pretty sure that they fall within an acceptable margin of error.