Last 20 Ky Derby winners

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Proven early speed is very important.

16 of the 20 horses above raced within 2.5 lengths of the lead after 4 furlongs.

The 4 who didn't...

* Go For Gin was 4.5 lengths back after 4 furlongs. He, of course, eventually won the Ky Derby wire-to-wire. He was also a proven speed horse.



* Real Quiet was 5.5 lengths back in a non-effort. He had showed early speed as a maiden...here he is right on top of 22 opening quarters in sprints before fading in the stretch.



* Charismatic was 9 lengths off of a 43 and change half mile. Charismatic, like Real Quiet, had also showed excellent early speed in maiden races before always fading badly in the stretch. Here's Charismaic's early form..




* Street Sense was 11 lengths off of the early lead. Street Sense also showed sensational early speed in maiden sprints...here is his early form of it ..



Street Sense was only a half length back chasing Piratesonthelake through a 21.50 opening quarter mile. He was another who truly had strong sprint speed but was a much better race horse when held up early.

It's basically a case of history repeating itself this year with proven early speed horse I'll Have Another.

I'll Have Another was able to hold on for a wire-to-wire debut win at 5.5 furlongs. He coughed up an early lead at 6fs in his second start. He was always on the lead or 2nd early-on.


This is why handicapping the KY Derby is a pain in the ass and such a guessing game.

Every year -- you have about six proven early speed horses like this who you know are going to be forced into changing their running style.

Typically, most of them will bomb and run horrible races ... but mostly every single year... one or sometimes two of them will relax nicely well off the pace, get a clear trip, and thrive. You just have to guess.

I'll Have Another is basically an early speed horse, who was able to relax well back, get a clear trip and handle all the dirt hitting him in the face for the 1st time just fine. If you guessed right, you got paid by a horse who showed a brand new dimension and used his early speed as an asset instead of a liablity.

His form is below..