5/5 (CD): 138th Kentucky Derby (G1), 5 Undercard Stakes

[ShadowRoll]

Originally Posted by Danzig

lol

except dullahan has starts on dirt-and hasn't won on it. i keep coming back to the horse, probably end up throwing a few on him just because i can't completely discount him. it's a doubt, not a surety. i guess i'm looking more for people to say stick with him than not!

To me, Dullahan's early races have the look of an improving two-year-old who just happened to reach the next level while running on the turf and synthetics.

His first race (at Churchill) wasn't awful for a horse who developed into a closer, finishing third of seven in a 5 1/2 furlong sprint. In his next race (again at Churchill), a 6 furlong sprint, he ran about the same, got the same Beyer, and again finished mid-pack. Then, he started to develop and started to get better. Perhaps the move to non-dirt helped him out, or perhaps his progress just happened to coincide with his running on turf and synthetic. As mentioned above, his BC Juvenile race (at Churchill) wasn't bad, finishing fourth against a group of horses that have developed into some of the the top contenders in this year's Derby. That was also his sixth race in six months. After taking a break, he came back as a three-year-old, ran second by a length in a G3, and then won the Blue Grass, turning the table on the horse that won the BC Juvenile.

Dullahan seems to be moving in the right direction. He's got ample experience at Churchill Downs. He handles close contact with other horses. He's from the same dam as Mine That Bird (who ran exclusively on synthetics as a two-year-old, placed twelfth in the BC Juvenile, ran twice on dirt but never won a race on dirt prior to the Derby). The anticipated pace seems favorable for a closer (at least to be in the money), and, just my opinion, I think he's the best of the closers.

Stick with him.