Wise Dan

[Kasept]

CJ, Doug..

Guys Reward is the lynchpin to the fig, no? My question would revolve around Big Blue Kitten whose big improvement (98) seems more implausible than Wise Dan. If Guys Reward's highly typical performance for him (94) is slightly inflated, the Wise Dan and Kitten efforts could only be a couple ticks on the high side.. Yes?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Kasept

CJ, Doug..

Guys Reward is the lynchpin to the fig, no? My question would revolve around Big Blue Kitten whose big improvement (98) seems more implausible than Wise Dan. If Guys Reward's highly typical performance for him (94) is slightly inflated, the Wise Dan and Kitten efforts could only be a couple ticks on the high side.. Yes?

I don't have the specific parallel time charts that Beyer uses for Keeneland --so I don't know if he does anything special with 9f races VS 8.5f races at KEE -- but the Wise Dan race does appears to be "cut loose" with the 8.5 furlong race run 30 minutes later based on how he has handled this distance relationship in the past.

Nine points was added to the Wise Dan race for some reason. A 108 would have fit the Beyer variant based on the Beyer relationship between 8.5f and 9f races at Keeneland in the other days I've looked at.

On Blue Grass day a 1:49.39 for nine furlongs equals an 83 Beyer. The same 1:49.39 would equal an 88 Beyer in the Ben Ali. This means Beyer has the track 5 points faster on Blue Grass day than Ben Ali day at 9fs.

However, a 1:43.95 clocking on Blue Grass day for 8.5fs equals an 80 Beyer. The same 1:43.95 clocking on Ben Ali day got a 76. This means Beyer has the track 4 points faster on Ben Ali day than Blue Grass day at 8.5fs.

Obviously 117 is open lengths faster than any Beyer ever published in synthetic route racing ... it's a very historical figure that will stand the test of time. However, it was earned over an extremely speed biased race track and it appears to have been cut loose with 9 points added to it.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Kasept

CJ, Doug..

Guys Reward is the lynchpin to the fig, no? My question would revolve around Big Blue Kitten whose big improvement (98) seems more implausible than Wise Dan. If Guys Reward's highly typical performance for him (94) is slightly inflated, the Wise Dan and Kitten efforts could only be a couple ticks on the high side.. Yes?

I checked my PM's and CJ actually sent me his analysis of it.

Here is a quick rundown of the routes for the day. These are the figures for the day after I adjust them for the pace variant, but not the overall variant. Parentheses are for the winner, the others for the leader.


( 59 73 92) 59 73 92 Race 3
( 135 135 134) 135 135 134 Race 8
( 126 121 107) 126 121 107 Race 9

Based on the those and using that turf formula I sent you for the slow paced race (on synthetics, I still give horses credit for running too fast early like the horse in the 9th), the raw performance figure for the winner of the three races would be:

Race 3, 106
Race 8, 134
Race 9, 113

Lets use what figures Beyer gave as the projection and look at the overall variant:

Race 3, 106 - 77 = 29
Race 8, 134 - 117 = 17
Race 9, 113 - 85 = 28

Clearly, the Wise Dan race doesn't fit. If you use a 28 based on the other two races, he actually gets a 106. That certainly makes a lot more sense than a 117. He clearly didn't understand that the final times of races 3 and 9 were impacted as much by pace as they were by track speed. You might also have noticed he split the 9th from the other two based on speed figures.

I actually projected the cheaper races a tad higher than he did and settled on a variant of 27 if I was using the Beyer scale, so that is where the 107 came from. I'll get into that more this week. I also didn't project a 117 for Wise Dan of course.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I checked my PM's and CJ actually sent me his analysis of it.

Why would you post a PM? If CJ wished it public he would have shown the world.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Why would you post a PM? If CJ wished it public he would have shown the world.

I only posted the part of the PM that included his thought process and analysis of the figure.

I can't imagine why he'd care since he basically posted the same exact thing on Pace Advantage in a little less detail.

[cmorioles]

It is fine.

[blackthroatedwind]

I'm not entering the discussion, mostly because I have no idea about figures at Keeneland, but as I said on another board, I spoke to Beyer and he stands behind the number. He used the same variant for the entire card, save projecting the 3rd race due to the slow pace and faster final fractions, and felt that since he hadn't been splitting sprint and route variants during the meet, there seemed no reason to do it for this day.

I'm just the messenger.

[freddymo]

Beyer can always revise his figure in the future when the fields future races do not support the 117.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm not entering the discussion, mostly because I have no idea about figures at Keeneland, but as I said on another board, I spoke to Beyer and he stands behind the number. He used the same variant for the entire card, save projecting the 3rd race due to the slow pace and faster final fractions, and felt that since he hadn't been splitting sprint and route variants during the meet, there seemed no reason to do it for this day.

I'm just the messenger.

I'm far from an authority on the Beyer process for his figs at Keeneland as well.

Obviously, horses who made the lead ran impossibly well all day from a Beyer figure standpoint and a 117 for Wise Dan isn't any more eye-popping than the Beyer figure every pacesetter on that card ran relative to prior ability.

However...looking at the last two routes this day VS Blue Grass Stakes day... what I'm seeing is not adding up.

On Blue Grass day a 1:49.39 for nine furlongs equals an 83 Beyer. The same 1:49.39 would equal an 88 Beyer in the Ben Ali. This means Beyer has the track 5 points faster on Blue Grass day than Ben Ali day at 9fs.

However, a 1:43.95 clocking on Blue Grass day for 8.5fs equals an 80 Beyer. The same 1:43.95 clocking on Ben Ali day got a 76. This means Beyer has the track 4 points faster on Ben Ali day than Blue Grass day at 8.5fs.

A day like that I'm just hunting for a few speeds to play against -- and a few closers who also didn't get pace and have a right to improve next time. But man, 117 in a synthetic route will really stand the test of time if he sticks by it.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Kasept

CJ, Doug..

Guys Reward is the lynchpin to the fig, no? My question would revolve around Big Blue Kitten whose big improvement (98) seems more implausible than Wise Dan. If Guys Reward's highly typical performance for him (94) is slightly inflated, the Wise Dan and Kitten efforts could only be a couple ticks on the high side.. Yes?

Regarding which is more implausible -- a 117 for Wise Dan or a 98 for Big Blue Kitten ... I have to disagree strongly and say the 117.

A 117 Beyer in a synthetic route is a figure I never believed I'd see. It's Babe Ruth type stuff.

Big Blue Kitten is a lightly raced horse (only 8 career starts) who was a Grade 2 stakes winner on turf at age 3 and has all better than looked races this year.




This was straight from my trip notes from Big Blue Kitten's 2012 comeback race ...



After that, he catches a race where he's taken back behind a 51 flat pace set by Get Stormy ... and he catches Wise Dan on a hardcore speed bias in his next two. He's a respectable horse who could easily win a Graded Stakes race next time out. He's a safer bet to run a 98 than Wise Dan is a 117...however, I'd say Wise Dan should have got a 108 and BBK an 89.