2012 Triple Crown Trail: 11 try to deny I'll Have Another

horseofcourse · #1 04-23-2012, 11:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

i saw that too. but does he really think that with SC out, he'll be alone out front? that completely ignores bodemeisters wire to wire win over SC last out for starters.

i just think it's a shame they're going to take a horse who has never gone 2 turns and let him try it for the first time in the ky derby.

What difference does it make where they try it? Would trying a 9 furlong allowance at Calder and failing harm the horse any more than doing it in the Derby? Not that it matters, but has anyone looked at his fractions in the Bay Shore race compared to his earlier efforts?? He was not flying....at all, or even anything remotely close to it. I dont' think he'll do well, but I'll keep an open mind about it. His Bay Shore fractions were dawdling by his standards, it may have been just pure luck and racing in a crappy field. But you know I think they were always thinking Preakness with him, and there may have been some method to the madness and a purpose to his 47.5 opening half in the Bay Shore....yeah the horse can go 44/45, but for a horse heading to routing the Bay Shore seemed to be a step in the right direction. And I really don't think it matters where you start the process. He'll do it or he won't.

Calzone Lord · #2 04-23-2012, 11:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

What difference does it make where they try it? Would trying a 9 furlong allowance at Calder and failing harm the horse any more than doing it in the Derby? Not that it matters, but has anyone looked at his fractions in the Bay Shore race compared to his earlier efforts?? He was not flying....at all, or even anything remotely close to it.

The Bay Shore was into a very stiff head-wind down the backstretch and no one pressed him.

The vast majority of speed horses with more than a few starts in them will relax nicely if no one wants to be near them early and they get loose.

When you get an environment like the Kentucky Derby, a massive crowd to stir the horses up, and a 20-horse field where riders need to use horses a little early for position ... it's not a good situation for a horse like this. It's not a good situation for the other speed, stalkers, and even mid-pack types who all will naturally use themselves up more than they would otherwise.

In a 9-furlong alw route at Calder -- he'd be rating as relaxed as possible on a loose and unpressured lead.

horseofcourse · #3 04-23-2012, 11:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

The Bay Shore was into a very stiff head-wind down the backstretch and no one pressed him.

The vast majority of speed horses with more than a few starts in them will relax nicely if no one wants to be near them early and they get loose.

When you get an environment like the Kentucky Derby, a massive crowd to stir the horses up, and a 20-horse field where riders need to use horses a little early for position ... it's not a good situation for a horse like this. It's not a good situation for the other speed, stalkers, and even mid-pack types who all will naturally use themselves up more than they would otherwise.

In a 9-furlong alw route at Calder -- he'd be rating as relaxed as possible on a loose and unpressured lead.

I'm just looking for reasons to try to justify and that was the most logical one I could come up with was the Bay Shore was relaxed...even with the headwind it was still a half second slower than the Carter first half. For me, them talking Preakness was just as crazy and if you're gonna do the crazy the Derby is only .5 furlongs longer. I just don't think his entry is as big a deal as many are making it out to be. If they're serious they'll try to harness him somewhat and he's just another horse with speed.

Calzone Lord · #4 04-23-2012, 11:57 AM

His jockey Chilly Will is the worst gate rider at Presque Isle with a win percentage regularly over 5% ... he's actually a very competent and decent rider other than that.

If Trinniberg gets the Chilly Will special out of the gate and breaks in the air and about two or three lengths slow ... he will be running over the top of horses. That's the worst case scenario.

If they are going to run him -- don't mess around. Just make sure he breaks clean and don't fight him. He will carry his speed a whole lot further on a loose lead and no one in there right mind will go with him. Either way, he's going to finish dead last regardless of tactics. Optimizer will even plug by him before the 1/8th pole.

Dahoss · #5 04-23-2012, 12:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

What difference does it make where they try it? Would trying a 9 furlong allowance at Calder and failing harm the horse any more than doing it in the Derby? Not that it matters, but has anyone looked at his fractions in the Bay Shore race compared to his earlier efforts?? He was not flying....at all, or even anything remotely close to it. I dont' think he'll do well, but I'll keep an open mind about it. His Bay Shore fractions were dawdling by his standards, it may have been just pure luck and racing in a crappy field. But you know I think they were always thinking Preakness with him, and there may have been some method to the madness and a purpose to his 47.5 opening half in the Bay Shore....yeah the horse can go 44/45, but for a horse heading to routing the Bay Shore seemed to be a step in the right direction. And I really don't think it matters where you start the process. He'll do it or he won't.

Wow. Get back to the Cleveland thread...please.

horseofcourse · #6 04-23-2012, 03:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Wow. Get back to the Cleveland thread...please.

I don't understand this comment. If you dont' like what I stated explain why....at least Calzone and danzig were able to do that. He ran a slower pace in the Bay Shore than his previous races, yeah, that's really crazy stuff there I said...stating fact. That's insane stuff stating fact like that.

horseofcourse · #7 04-23-2012, 04:07 PM

The main thing I don't understand is why it would be ok to route him in the Preakness but not the Derby? I don't care that much they're running him. I guess DaHoss cares a lot.

Dahoss · #8 04-24-2012, 07:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

I don't understand this comment. If you dont' like what I stated explain why....at least Calzone and danzig were able to do that. He ran a slower pace in the Bay Shore than his previous races, yeah, that's really crazy stuff there I said...stating fact. That's insane stuff stating fact like that.

What you said makes no sense. You're just taking the opposite side out of boredom which is why I didn't waste anytime on a real response.

horseofcourse · #9 04-25-2012, 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss

What you said makes no sense. You're just taking the opposite side out of boredom which is why I didn't waste anytime on a real response.

Fine. I don't think the horse will run top 15 in the Derby, I can understand someone running a horse in the Derby, what I said made complete sense and that is where you are wrong. The horse ran slower earlier in the Bay Shore than his previous two races. That is simply what happened. Wind or not it was still slower. I am not taking any opposite side. I'm simply justifying why someone is running in the Derby and offered what happened in a previous race as minor justification. Lots of things happen in horse racing that are inexplicable. I'm sure anyone on this board at this time 3 years ago making impassioned justifications for Mine That Bird winning the Derby would have been lauged at and abused to infinity here. And that's all fine. I'm not even doing that. I'm not making claims this horse will win, I'm simply saying it's accpeptable that he's running in the race.

Dahoss · #10 04-25-2012, 01:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

Fine. I don't think the horse will run top 15 in the Derby, I can understand someone running a horse in the Derby, what I said made complete sense and that is where you are wrong. The horse ran slower earlier in the Bay Shore than his previous two races. That is simply what happened. Wind or not it was still slower. I am not taking any opposite side. I'm simply justifying why someone is running in the Derby and offered what happened in a previous race as minor justification. Lots of things happen in horse racing that are inexplicable. I'm sure anyone on this board at this time 3 years ago making impassioned justifications for Mine That Bird winning the Derby would have been lauged at and abused to infinity here. And that's all fine. I'm not even doing that. I'm not making claims this horse will win, I'm simply saying it's accpeptable that he's running in the race.

No one said it was unacceptable they are running. What was discussed is why it's a horrible choice.

Comparing Mine That Bird (who had two turn victories) to a horse who has never gone two turns and yet to go past 7 furlongs is ridiculous. Justifying this horrible decision because the horse ran a slower quarter in his most recent race is borderline insane.

Danzig · #11 04-23-2012, 01:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

What difference does it make where they try it? Would trying a 9 furlong allowance at Calder and failing harm the horse any more than doing it in the Derby? Not that it matters, but has anyone looked at his fractions in the Bay Shore race compared to his earlier efforts?? He was not flying....at all, or even anything remotely close to it. I dont' think he'll do well, but I'll keep an open mind about it. His Bay Shore fractions were dawdling by his standards, it may have been just pure luck and racing in a crappy field. But you know I think they were always thinking Preakness with him, and there may have been some method to the madness and a purpose to his 47.5 opening half in the Bay Shore....yeah the horse can go 44/45, but for a horse heading to routing the Bay Shore seemed to be a step in the right direction. And I really don't think it matters where you start the process. He'll do it or he won't.

i think it makes a lot of difference. if i had a horse that i thought might go for 10f, i wouldn't have him only run up to 7f beforehand, and no further. i wouldn't only have run him in one turn racing with his first around two turns in a field with 19 other horses and him going 3 extra furlongs at the same time. typically you would work towards that with longer racing beforehand, wouldn't you?
if they only planned to go a mile at most, and now, two weeks out, he's going to try for another quarter-well, just how much training would have been needed to put more bottom into a horse that they can't manage now? he's got two weeks to prepare a horse to do a lot more than he's ever been prepared to do. and you're right, it's not so much where-but i certainly feel that 'when' has a lot to do with it.

in your later post, you suggested they would try to harness him somewhat. that would be a bigger mistake than running him in the derby. to try to take him out off his game...this horse will have no chance if they try to mess with his style. i saw where he worked 5f in 1:02, that tells me they're trying to get some speed out of him. huge mistake. it's too late to try to make a 10f silk purse out of what's a sprinting sow's ear. they should stick to the trial, and then try the preakness if they want to attempt to run off with a loose lead and hold on for the finish. but they shouldn't try to take away what natural speed he's got. he won't have enough than to get out front alone early, and he sure won't be there late.

horseofcourse · #12 04-23-2012, 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

they should stick to the trial, and then try the preakness if they want to attempt to run off with a loose lead and hold on for the finish. but they shouldn't try to take away what natural speed he's got. he won't have enough than to get out front alone early, and he sure won't be there late.

thanks for your long reply--good stuff, but I still dont' understand this part...why would this be any different than what they're doing now?? running in the derby trial then the preakness, it's the exact same thing.

Danzig · #13 04-23-2012, 04:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

thanks for your long reply--good stuff, but I still dont' understand this part...why would this be any different than what they're doing now?? running in the derby trial then the preakness, it's the exact same thing.

because the derby trial is a slightly longer trip than what he's run so far. it also gives them more time to get more stamina into him since the preakness is four weeks out, while the derby is only two. also, it's a bit shorter than the derby. instead of having a longer race than what he's run, with more training time, they're bypassing the frying pan altogether and throwing him right into the fire.
for many horses, the derby is their first at 10f, but it's not typically their first time around two turns. of course that has to happen sooner or later, i just think in trinnibergs case it's ill-advised at this point.

and my last part that you quoted-his strong suit is his early speed, it's what the trainer mentioned as to why now he wanted to go in the derby, that he felt t'berg would be alone on the lead. but then he has him work a slow 5f. if the early turn of foot is his strong suit, why would he want to take that one edge away? it's a concern for sure.