2012 Triple Crown Trail: 11 try to deny I'll Have Another

[Kasept]

CD: 5/5/12 - Kentucky Derby (G1)

1 Hansen Michael Maker $1,550,000
2 Daddy Long Legs Aidan O'Brien $1,294,030
3 Union Rags Michael Matz $1,170,000
4 Dullahan Dale Romans $855,000
5 Creative Cause Mike Harrington $836,000
6 Wrote (IRE) Aidan O'Brien $756,630 -- Uncertain per Darren Rogers
7 Gemologist Todd Pletcher $703,855
8 Sabercat Steve Asmussen $701,429
9 Take Charge Indy Patrick Byrne $698,400
10 Secret Circle Bob Baffert $670,000 -- Uncertain per Darren Rogers
11 Bodemeister Bob Baffert $660,000
12 I'll Have Another Doug O'Neill $601,000
13 Daddy Nose Best Steve Asmussen $545,558
14 Liaison Bob Baffert $393,000 -- Uncertain per Darren Rogers
15 Alpha Kiaran McLaughlin $380,000
16 Prospective Mark Casse $367,327
17 Trinniberg Bisnath Parboo $324,500 -- Preakness
18 Done Talking Hamilton Smith $311,000
19 Drill Bob Baffert $300,000 -- Highly unlikely
20 Went the Day Well Graham Motion $282,000 -- Lexington
------------------------------------------------------------------------
21 Rousing Sermon Jerry Hollendorfer $270,000
22 Mark Valeski Larry Jones $260,000
23 El Padrino Todd Pletcher $250,000
24 Reveron Agustin Bezara $220,000 -- Lexington
25 Isn't He Clever Henry Dominguez $188,000
26 Optimizer D. Wayne Lukas $184,708
27 Castaway Bob Baffert $162,000
28 Currency Swap Teresa Pompey $150,000
29 My Adonis Kelly Breen $140,000
30. Brother Francis Jim Cassidy $135,000

[justindew]

The odds on both Drill and Secret Circle passing on the Derby are long.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by justindew

The odds on both Drill and Secret Circle passing on the Derby are long.

Drill is certainly not running.

[Travis Stone]

Trinniberg is an interesting story. He's a sprinter. In either the Derby or the Preakness he's going to run fast early and have a very low chance of hanging around until the end. So given that, why would you go to the Preakness and not just try the Derby? I suppose he might get an "easier" lead in the Preakness... but we're still talking about a really fast 6-7 furlong horse.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Trinniberg is an interesting story. He's a sprinter. In either the Derby or the Preakness he's going to run fast early and have a very low chance of hanging around until the end. So given that, why would you go to the Preakness and not just try the Derby? I suppose he might get an "easier" lead in the Preakness... but we're still talking about a really fast 6-7 furlong horse.

Because in the Derby he would have to face Bodemeister whose only wins have been on the lead and Hansen who stalked in the Gotham but otherwise guns it like a quarterhorse early... I could envison them opening up a 10 length lead on the field while deuling.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by jms62

Because in the Derby he would have to face Bodemeister whose only wins have been on the lead and Hansen who stalked in the Gotham but otherwise guns it like a quarterhorse early... I could envison them opening up a 10 length lead on the field while deuling.

Trinniberg went 20 4/5ths for an opening quarter mile the last time he raced at Churchill ... and he ran the fastest Moss Pace figure ever published in the Hopeful as a 2yo.

He's able to relax this year because they've removed the blinkers and no one has been dumb enough to test him early.

With a huge crowd, 20 horse field, riders asking a little out of the gate for position, he's most likely going to get competitive and sprint. He'll fry all the tactical speeds and even mid-pack types. Anything within 12 lengths of him will totally stop.

Trinniberg isn't a front-end router like Hansen and Bodemeister -- he's a horse who could get the lead in a race like the Breeders Cup Sprint.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Trinniberg went 20 4/5ths for an opening quarter mile the last time he raced at Churchill ... and he ran the fastest Moss Pace figure ever published in the Hopeful as a 2yo.

He's able to relax this year because they've removed the blinkers and no one has been dumb enough to test him early.

With a huge crowd, 20 horse field, he's most likely going to get competitive and sprint. He'll fry all the tactical speeds and even mid-pack types. Anything within 12 lengths of him will totally stop.

That is why I am putting together my list of horses making big moves from 3/4 home in the 9 FL preps. This looks like it really sets up for Dulahan but I have questions on whether he can get over dirt.

[Kasept]

TRINNIBERG LIKELY TO BYPASS DERBY; DERBY TRIAL NEW TARGET

MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. (April 15, 2012) – With the final round of major prep races for the Kentucky Derby completed on Saturday, the Calder-based multiple graded stakes winner Trinniberg sits in 17th place in the latest graded-stakes earnings list. But even with his spot in the Derby starting gate seemingly assured, owner Shivananda Parbhoo has indicated that his colt is likely to pass the race.

“Right now I’m 85 percent not going to the Derby,” Parbhoo said on Sunday morning. “But I could reach 100 percent pretty soon. The way the horse is feeling right now, he’s doing so well, I don’t want to run him over his head. He’s a nice three-year-old with so many options the rest of the year. I don’t want to ruin him.”

While those mid-to-late season options could include such races as the Grade 2 Woody Stephens at Belmont Park on June 9 and the Grade 1 King’s Bishop at Saratoga August 25, the next option for the recent Grade 3 Bay Shore winner could be the $200,000 Grade 3 Derby Trial at Churchill Downs, run at the distance of one mile on April 28.

“We’ll work him some time between the 18th and the 20th, and then we’ll look at the Derby Trial as the next logical spot,” Parbhoo said. “I think the one-mile distance of that race is perfect for him. And it’s a way to stretch him out a bit, without asking too much of him.”

Following a possible start in the Derby Trial, Parbhoo hinted that Trinniberg could still make a Triple Crown appearance in Baltimore, contesting the Grade 1 Preakness Stakes on May 19. But even that option appears to be fading somewhat from the owner’s mind.

“The Preakness could still be a goal, but a lot of that would depend on how he ran in the Derby Trial,” Parbhoo said. “If we decide to run (in the Derby Trial) and he was to win that race really easy, then we might look at the Preakness. But right now, my thinking is that I’d really like to keep him at seven furlongs to one mile.

“Believe me, I want to go to the Derby; the day we bought our first horse, our dream was the Derby,” Parbhoo continued. “But it’s not about me, it’s about the horse. I won’t ruin a really nice horse just to say I ran a horse in the Kentucky Derby.”