NYT Series: "Mangled Horses, Maimed Jockeys"

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

I found this interesting - according to a tweet I got from DRF (don't recall if it was anyone in particular, and have not investigated the claim for veracity) - The last horse to break his maiden at Saratoga and go on to win the Kentucky Derby?

Decidedly ~ 1962

That's pretty sobering - looking back over the years at all of the horses that have debuted as 2yos convincingly at the Spa and what their careers at 3 through 5 turned out - usually sent to the BC off one prep, then given a ridiculous amt of time off, then are put on a stringent training regiment to try and make the Kentucky Derby field with no bottom in them... Then we see them at 4 or 5 for their return to the track, or they some how make it through 2 of the 3 legs of the TC and are off until their 4 year old campaign.

I don't know and never would consider myself even remotely knowledgeable on the subject, it just seems to me that some are bred to fly early and burn out, while others not only further develop, but improve with age.

The tweet originated from Darren Rogers in the Churchill Press Office.

Why should Maidenbreakers, typically going 6f in August, be some bellwether for Derby success?

[OTM Al]

Originally Posted by Kasept

The tweet originated from Darren Rogers in the Churchill Press Office.

Why should Maidenbreakers, typically going 6f in August, be some bellwether for Derby success?

What happened to Big Brown?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by OTM Al

What happened to Big Brown?

The factoid was couched by maiden breaking on dirt.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Steve, I don't know that it is any sort of bellwether, but most eventual two turn horses break their maidens around one turn. My point was - it seems to me that the earlier in their careers they enjoy success the less likely they are to participate at the same level as older horses.

Perhaps it is such a small sample at that particular point in the year that they happen to stand out simply because better horses are still developing, or that they will have peaked in their ability when the later developing horses are just hitting their stride.

I don't know, just an observation. I love 2yo racing, particularly at the Spa - I was debunking the quote that they need to do away with 2yo racing as it should be crystal clear that there is a precocious segment of the foal population each year that relishes running early. And as such, they just to seem to be able to hang with the later developing crowd as they get on in their careers, with few exceptions.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Steve, I don't know that it is any sort of bellwether, but most eventual two turn horses break their maidens around one turn. My point was - it seems to me that the earlier in their careers they enjoy success the less likely they are to participate at the same level as older horses.

Perhaps it is such a small sample at that particular point in the year that they happen to stand out simply because better horses are still developing, or that they will have peaked in their ability when the later developing horses are just hitting their stride.

I don't know, just an observation. I love 2yo racing, particularly at the Spa - I was debunking the quote that they need to do away with 2yo racing as it should be crystal clear that there is a precocious segment of the foal population each year that relishes running early. And as such, they just to seem to be able to hang with the later developing crowd as they get on in their careers, with few exceptions.

I think it's just an isolated and finite parameter. Arts and Letters broke his maiden at Saratoga. He was Horse of the Year as a 3yo. Lemon Drop Kid broke his maiden at SAR. Swale broke his at Belmont in July. Damascus and Chateaugay both started their careers in October at Belmont and broke their maidens in 2nd starts there late in the month.

A random oddity.

[Kasept]

Alan Mann with an excellent dissection:
http://leftatthegate.blogspot.com/20...ournalism.html

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Steve, I don't know that it is any sort of bellwether, but most eventual two turn horses break their maidens around one turn. My point was - it seems to me that the earlier in their careers they enjoy success the less likely they are to participate at the same level as older horses.

Perhaps it is such a small sample at that particular point in the year that they happen to stand out simply because better horses are still developing, or that they will have peaked in their ability when the later developing horses are just hitting their stride.

I don't know, just an observation. I love 2yo racing, particularly at the Spa - I was debunking the quote that they need to do away with 2yo racing as it should be crystal clear that there is a precocious segment of the foal population each year that relishes running early. And as such, they just to seem to be able to hang with the later developing crowd as they get on in their careers, with few exceptions.

The idea that a horse racing at 2 has anything to do with claimers breaking down years later is beyond stupid. Wanting to do away with 2 year old racing is akin to doing away with little league because the participants arent fully developed yet. I have no idea where this started but racing two year olds or horses in general doesnt harm them. Racing horses with injuries regardless of age does.