How much is too much?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I think you're saying that there is very little value in betting anyone's 1-2-3 picks when they have to be submitted days before a race.

You might want to try less thinking.

My point was fairly clear. And, I think, that wasn't it.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You might want to try less thinking.

My point was fairly clear. And, I think, that wasn't it.

You're right, and I apologize for being flippant. Let me put it differently.

Because of the reason you gave (picks being made so early), as well as the reason I gave (having a following), plus the reason CL added (making picks on every race), I think there's very little value in betting anyone's picks that are made under those conditions.

With the possible exception of CL's picks at PID! That's an amazing record, CL--a positive ROI on 2400 races?!. That's Gehrig-esque.

--Dunbar

[blackthroatedwind]

The problem with the Presque Isle picks is if you bet $100 to win on every one of them they wouldn't have shown a positive ROI. It's a small pool with very unsophisticated money in it. I don't dispute that DrugS has an excellent opinion, that's a given, but the Presque Isle numbers are not an accurate assessment of his talents ( which are significant ).

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The problem with the Presque Isle picks is if you bet $100 to win on every one of them they wouldn't have shown a positive ROI. It's a small pool with very unsophisticated money in it. I don't dispute that DrugS has an excellent opinion, that's a given, but the Presque Isle numbers are not an accurate assessment of his talents ( which are significant ).

For whatever reason, they handle better on Betfair than many mid-level tracks and almost as well as a few of the biggest tracks.

There's often over a thousand dollars available on both sides of a price for the shorter priced horses ... it's like their top Tuesday track.

I can't dispute anything you say...but there are a lot of small pool tracks where I think it would still be a brutal task to pick every race.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

With the possible exception of CL's picks at PID! That's an amazing record, CL--a positive ROI on 2400 races?!. That's Gehrig-esque.

Junior Alvarado had ridden in over 3,700 career races and his mounts show a flat bet ROI profit... and he's pretty much stuck with whatever he gets to ride and doesn't have the kind of options a handicapper would.

Ramon Dominguez -- when he rode in the Mid Atlantic -- he went 9 out of 10 years with a flat-bet profit in turf races...and almost always a 10% or more. And jockeys are way down the list as far as handicapping factors go.

I don't fish very often for huge top-pick prices with the newspaper pics because win percentage is one of the two main goals...but each year I've been lucky to catch a mega bomb or two when I have.

The bias played a major factor in almost all of the big prices.