Aqueduct Card

[Calzone Lord]

Raising the claiming level amounts is going to make it harder for owners who acutally care about trying to grind out a profit.

The "flip men" game is really what gives owners the best chance.

Get yourself a true move-up trainer. Claim from mid-levels taking the best you can find off of trainers you'll improve upon... and if you whiff by claiming something with a lot of issues, drop them. It's a pretty simple game.

Guys like Cole - who can get those true wizards in the Mid-Atlantic to train like Beattie, Wells, and now Scooter - can even take off of the very bottom level a lot and still maintain a 40% win percentage as an owner.

Horse racing today is setup terribly difficult for people who want to make a living as an owner.

A lot of people don't realize how laughably over-priced horses are -- especially at sales. You see horses selling in the 150K-to-350K range at 2-year-old sales every year who you know have zero ability at all. There are horses who sell that well who would be horrible investments for $1,500 because they simply can't run and the horse has already proved so much.

If you could 'short' horses like this as investments it would be a picnic. You're strongly against-the-wind as a bettor because of takeout...but unless you have a starting bankroll atleast in the mid six figures and can get the right trainers at the right tracks and can afford to consistantly take horses well off the bottom..you're just as much against-the-wind as a bettor is.

I'd like to see claiming levels at a place like Presque Isle come down to $2,500. I think it would certainly attract a lot more owners and give them a much better shot to be profitable. More than half of the horses who run for 5K right now -- aren't even worth anything close to $2,500 for an owner.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Raising the claiming level amounts is going to make it harder for owners who acutally care about trying to grind out a profit.

The "flip men" game is really what gives owners the best chance.

Get yourself a true move-up trainer. Claim from mid-levels taking the best you can find off of trainers you'll improve upon... and if you whiff by claiming something with a lot of issues, drop them. It's a pretty simple game.

Guys like Cole - who can get those true wizards in the Mid-Atlantic to train like Beattie, Wells, and now Scooter - can even take off of the very bottom level a lot and still maintain a 40% win percentage as an owner.

Horse racing today is setup terribly difficult for people who want to make a living as an owner.

A lot of people don't realize how laughably over-priced horses are -- especially at sales. You see horses selling in the 150K-to-350K range at 2-year-old sales every year who you know have zero ability at all. There are horses who sell that well who would be horrible investments for $1,500 because they simply can't run and the horse has already proved so much.

If you could 'short' horses like this as investments it would be a picnic. You're strongly against-the-wind as a bettor because of takeout...but unless you have a starting bankroll atleast in the mid six figures and can get the right trainers at the right tracks and can afford to consistantly take horses well off the bottom..you're just as much against-the-wind as a bettor is.

I'd like to see claiming levels at a place like Presque Isle come down to $2,500. I think it would certainly attract a lot more owners and give them a much better shot to be profitable. More than half of the horses who run for 5K right now -- aren't even worth anything close to $2,500 for an owner.

Nobody is saying you can't have lower claiming prices, but they should be more in line with purses. If the current set up is allowing guys like Cole to thrive, that alone tells me there is something desperately wrong with the way the game is played.

People don't have to take time with horses and actually practice horsemanship, which is in no way good for the animals. I have no doubt many more horses are sent out that shouldn't be because of slots purses. It also, in my mind, encourages cheating.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

If the current set up is allowing guys like Cole to thrive, that alone tells me there is something desperately wrong with the way the game is played.

The current set-up is keeping some wanna-be Cole's away...because they're simply way out-priced.

As I know that you know -- this game is setup so harshly for the bettor and the owner.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

The current set-up is keeping some wanna-be Cole's away...because they're simply way out-priced.

As I know that you know -- this game is setup so harshly for the bettor and the owner.

If you are running 5k horses for 15k, why not make them 10 or 15k horses? Raising the claiming price does nothing to hurt the current owner unless he is looking to get rid of damaged goods. The purse stays the same, and he is less likely to lose his horse. I don't have a lot of sympathy for owners looking to get rid of damaged goods.

Raising the claiming price is also still going to keep the wannabe Coles out, even moreso.

[Rudeboyelvis]

I don't know that raising the claiming price can improve the product - As Chuck points out, look at the mess in LA. They breed crap to crap, just so they can cash a slot-juiced state-bred MSW check with a 37 bsf.

The horses cannot compete anywhere else in the country, and you're stuck with a program that unbetable and unentertaining.

What do you do with all of the uncompetitive NY breds already there? The glut poorly bred horses will continue to increase as breeders get incented on these purses too. Will be interesting to see the ratio on NY Breds going through the Ocala ring relative to recent years past.

I don't think making them run for 15k instead of 7500 is an answer.

Without some strict controls, they're going to need to build another lower rung facility to race these things, or only pay the owner /breeder awards in open-company contests and remove the state bred restriction all together.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

I don't know that raising the claiming price can improve the product - As Chuck points out, look at the mess in LA. They breed crap to crap, just so they can cash a slot-juiced state-bred MSW check with a 37 bsf.

The horses cannot compete anywhere else in the country, and you're stuck with a program that unbetable and unentertaining.

What do you do with all of the uncompetitive NY breds already there? The glut poorly bred horses will continue to increase as breeders get incented on these purses too. Will be interesting to see the ratio on NY Breds going through the Ocala ring relative to recent years past.

I don't think making them run for 15k instead of 7500 is an answer.

Without some strict controls, they're going to need to build another lower rung facility to race these things, or only pay the owner /breeder awards in open-company contests and remove the state bred restriction all together.

Maybe it wouldn't help, but it would be better for horses. It wouldn't hurt anything. Any new owner that buys in cheaply and happens to get a decent horse is going to become quickly disillusioned with the sport when their horse is taken away by some miracle worker.

There is always FL for the NY breds, just like the old days.

[Calzone Lord]

IMO, the cheap open claiming races are always the best betting races anyway at lesser tracks, and inflating the claiming levels more would basically take away the true little guys chance to own a horse by himself.

I had claimed a few horses in 2001 and 2002 on the bottom (for 4K) -- but I only had 50% of them.

The first time I ever dropped a claim for a horse 100% on my own was on a horse in a $3,500 claiming race at Charles Town named Action Attraction.

The $3,500 claiming race had a purse of $16,500. It was at a time and place where you could get good trainers who charged just $30 a day and 10% WP.

The horse I claimed was dropping from a strong 2nd in a starter alw race.

I wasn't even driving at the time and hadn't had a job job for over 4 years. I just looked at it as making my biggest bet ever at great odds. A true gamble though because of the "for sale sign" drop.

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbP...try=USA&race=2

The horse ran dead last beaten about 25 lengths. I knew I'd probably have to shake -- but I wanted to vomit right there.

I go into the racing office. It was shoulder-to-shoulder crowded. Five different horses in the race had been claimed...and there was a 19-way shake for Action Attraction.

Everyone else stands there and looks fine. I'm kneeling down in the back -- in there for more than 10 minutes -- just praying I don't get the horse. I didn't get her. I felt like I won the lottery and I was the only person in that entire room who was openly celebrating.

She ended up not being damaged goods. Made over 200K. Was winning starter alw races with 21K purses and 7,500 clm races with 23K purses just a few months later.

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbP...ry=USA&race=12

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbP...try=USA&race=6

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

I don't know that raising the claiming price can improve the product - As Chuck points out, look at the mess in LA. They breed crap to crap, just so they can cash a slot-juiced state-bred MSW check with a 37 bsf.

The horses cannot compete anywhere else in the country, and you're stuck with a program that unbetable and unentertaining.

What do you do with all of the uncompetitive NY breds already there? The glut poorly bred horses will continue to increase as breeders get incented on these purses too. Will be interesting to see the ratio on NY Breds going through the Ocala ring relative to recent years past.

I don't think making them run for 15k instead of 7500 is an answer.

Without some strict controls, they're going to need to build another lower rung facility to race these things, or only pay the owner /breeder awards in open-company contests and remove the state bred restriction all together.

They have a facility for cheap NYbreds, Finger Lakes.

I'm not suggesting that people simply run $7500 horses for $15000. I'm suggesting that they get rid of them if they want to race at NYRA tracks.

We aren't that far removed from NY breds having 4 types of races at NYRA. MSW, NW1x allowance, NW2x allowance and stakes. Because of the expansion of the NY bred program more classes will be needed than 4 but not that many more. Maybe a NYB $25000 claiming race, a NYB $35000 maiden claimer and starter handicap series for NYB's?

The need to raise the bottom is really the easiest thing to do. The NY breeders will scream about any roll back of NY bred races even if you up the purses enough in the other NYB races to cover the mandatory payout and number of races required are met. Getting rid of most of the conditioned claiming races and starter allowances will be met with resistance from horsemen. The stall thing will have the biggest (and most connected for the most part) trainers going crazy. But what are they going to do? Send a string to Colonial or Suffolk? Try Ellis Park? Most already have horses in KY(at CD or Kee) and Delaware or Woodbine or Monmouth. There isn't anywhere else for them to go. Are owners really going to let their trainer talk them into running for a far cheaper purse somewhere else if they can win in NY? This is the least likely thing to happen and yet it is probably the most important. It will take a lot of balls to try out of the box stuff because pretty much no one in the industry does and there will be a lot of influential people that will be killing you and hoping that it fails (mostly because they like the status quo in which they are part of the machine that has a stranglehold on horseracing at the upper levels). But it would work and in the end would mean a better product at our most important circuit. How it affects the other tracks is a mystery as there are a million factors but it could provide a template that other tracks with casino money and poorly designed racing programs (like most all of them) could try to follow. Or it might even serve to kill off some of them as they are stripped of their quality horses and have nothing but low level races to offer and the politicians finally get wise that the money is being squandered (oh wait that already happening...)

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

If you are running 5k horses for 15k, why not make them 10 or 15k horses? Raising the claiming price does nothing to hurt the current owner unless he is looking to get rid of damaged goods. The purse stays the same, and he is less likely to lose his horse. I don't have a lot of sympathy for owners looking to get rid of damaged goods.

Raising the claiming price is also still going to keep the wannabe Coles out, even moreso.

Aren't markets healthier when they are free?

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Aren't markets healthier when they are free?

Explain how that question makes any sense here and I'll try to answer.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Explain how that question makes any sense here and I'll try to answer.

If a horse is worth X shouldnt the claiming value be X and nt a made up value? If Unbridled Danger is a good value at 7500 then why make him run for 15k just because?

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Aren't markets healthier when they are free?

Not all markets. Think the NFL would be better without a salary cap?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

There would be no made up value. If a horse is worth less than 15k then he needs to run elsewhere. If you want better racing you have to start somewhere.

If they got rid of all the horses in New York who are truly worth less than 15K true value to their owners ... you'd have a lot of horses going out.

And a lot more horses who are just a single condition or two away from joining them.

I remember the first year at Presque Isle when the wrote those stupid N1X alw races with 72K purses. A horse of Loren Cox's shipped up off of an open 5K claiming win at Mountaineer and won one of them with ease without even really improving his figure.

Cheap open claiming is good bread and butter horse racing. I'm not so sure Rapid Redux would even be worth 15K in NY.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

If they got rid of all the horses in New York who are truly worth less than 15K true value to their owners ... you'd have a lot of horses going out.

And a lot more horses who are just a single condition or two away from joining them.

I remember the first year at Presque Isle when the wrote those stupid N1X alw races with 72K purses. A horse of Loren Cox's shipped up off of an open 5K claiming win at Mountaineer and won one of them with ease without even really improving his figure.

Cheap open claiming is good bread and butter horse racing. I'm not so sure Rapid Redux would even be worth 15K in NY.

Based on what is presently making up some of their cards they need to have a lot going out. They would need to give some notice, like announcing that this will start at Belmont now. Open claiming races are great, most of what they have now isnt that. You also need to have a high top end. With the purses they can give out having $150k claimers is possible. Rather than running in allowance races on a secondary circuit, a guy could run in high level claiming races. Some enterprising owners will claim at that level which is good for everyone.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

With the purses they can give out having $150k claimers is possible. Rather than running in allowance races on a secondary circuit, a guy could run in high level claiming races. Some enterprising owners will claim at that level which is good for everyone.

Pletcher would be odds-on with a horse like Turbo Compressor.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Chuck - Since the original thread was about Aqueduct, and specifically the product they put on through the winter - I geared my response toward what seems to me to be the most glaring issue with winter racing there - their state bred racing program. 95% of the horses bred in the state have no business running for the purses they soon will see. More stallions are being placed in NY to accommodate the growing population of mares (almost all bad) that can drop a foal on the ground and be blessed NY registered. It is not unlike LA, only it's the tip of the iceberg. 10 years from now (assuming the relationship with Genting is intact) you'll have the same problems they have - except LA has 3 tracks to spread the "wealth" around to.

Finger Lakes can barely handle the population they have, and their adoption program is maxed out on day 1. And it goes without saying that the product there does not support itself.

A handful of Finger lakes trainers bring some of them here to Tampa, most are laid up for the winter, and few go elsewhere.

Encouraging the top outfits to keep stalls there for their higher end dirt horses / promising 2-3yos in the winter instead of shipping south would be a start. I don't know if that will happen, personally.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Chuck - Since the original thread was about Aqueduct, and specifically the product they put on through the winter - I geared my response toward what seems to me to be the most glaring issue with winter racing there - their state bred racing program. 95% of the horses bred in the state have no business running for the purses they soon will see. More stallions are being placed in NY to accommodate the growing population of mares (almost all bad) that can drop a foal on the ground and be blessed NY registered. It is not unlike LA, only it's the tip of the iceberg. 10 years from now (assuming the relationship with Genting is intact) you'll have the same problems they have - except LA has 3 tracks to spread the "wealth" around to.

Finger Lakes can barely handle the population they have, and their adoption program is maxed out on day 1. And it goes without saying that the product there does not support itself.

A handful of Finger lakes trainers bring some of them here to Tampa, most are laid up for the winter, and few go elsewhere.

Encouraging the top outfits to keep stalls there for their higher end dirt horses / promising 2-3yos in the winter instead of shipping south would be a start. I don't know if that will happen, personally.

Supply and demand will eventually max out the program. By limiting the amount of NY bred races you will force people to breed better horses. While there is no doubt that most NY breds will be running for a lot more than they should be there are ancillary benefits of bringing more money into the state via mares, stallions and foals. The breeders do have some political clout and as such are a player. If you simply write fewer, better races the issues will wind themselves down.

You will never get the top young horses staying North simply because of the weather and the effect of not being able to train regularly all the time. However it seems like some of the big outfits have left better horses and there are some new stables there.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Supply and demand will eventually max out the program. By limiting the amount of NY bred races you will force people to breed better horses. While there is no doubt that most NY breds will be running for a lot more than they should be there are ancillary benefits of bringing more money into the state via mares, stallions and foals. The breeders do have some political clout and as such are a player. If you simply write fewer, better races the issues will wind themselves down.

You will never get the top young horses staying North simply because of the weather and the effect of not being able to train regularly all the time. However it seems like some of the big outfits have left better horses and there are some new stables there.

Force people to Play at a higher stakes craps table.