BC singles

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

the race won most often by the fave is the distaff, so i'd imagine fleet indian would be the logical lock. but i really don't think any of them are a 'lock'. each race has many top notch horses, any of which can win. it's a watch only day for me anyway, one to enjoy purely as a spectator.

But would there be any logical reason why the favorite would win the ditaff more than any other race? I would not think so. Each division is going to be different each year so to me it is not productive to look for divisional trends.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by miraja2

But would there be any logical reason why the favorite would win the ditaff more than any other race? I would not think so. Each division is going to be different each year so to me it is not productive to look for divisional trends.

Yeah, but...

You want to single Circular Quay and he is attempting to do something he has never done- win around two turns. How can you call a horse attempting to win around two turns for the first time a "lock"?

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Yeah, but...

You want to single Circular Quay and he is attempting to do something he has never done- win around two turns. How can you call a horse attempting to win around two turns for the first time a "lock"?

You might want to read a bit more carefully. I did not call him a "lock." I said he was "as close to a lock as a horse can be in a BC race." That is different. There are too many good horses in these races for anyone to be a lock, but after watching all of his races multiple times....I believe he is a two-turn horse. It was not the two-turns that got him last time....it was the garbage surface he was running on. The fact that he is by Thunder Gulch also suggests (although obviously does not ensure) that stretching out should not be an issue.
In my opinion he is just a lot better than the rest of these. To me....that makes him a strong single.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by miraja2

You might want to read a bit more carefully. I did not call him a "lock." I said he was "as close to a lock as a horse can be in a BC race." That is different. There are too many good horses in these races for anyone to be a lock, but after watching all of his races multiple times....I believe he is a two-turn horse. It was not the two-turns that got him last time....it was the garbage surface he was running on. The fact that he is by Thunder Gulch also suggests (although obviously does not ensure) that stretching out should not be an issue.
In my opinion he is just a lot better than the rest of these. To me....that makes him a strong single.

Fair enough and perhaps you will be proven correct.

Personally, I think calling a horse thats never won around two turns "as close to a lock as a horse can be in a bc race" is not logical thinking. It would be nice to assume that the surface is what did him in at keeneland (i agree actually) but we arent sure of this. It could very well have been the extra turn that made him hang. Good luck on that single. I will play Circular Quay but not single him.

As for my own single, i will try hurricane run in the turf.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Fair enough and perhaps you will be proven correct.

Personally, I think calling a horse thats never won around two turns "as close to a lock as a horse can be in a bc race" is not logical thinking. It would be nice to assume that the surface is what did him in at keeneland (i agree actually) but we arent sure of this. It could very well have been the extra turn that made him hang. Good luck on that single. I will play Circular Quay but not single him.

As for my own single, i will try hurricane run in the turf.

Well I guess we basically agree on the horses and just disagree about how to bet them. I like Hurricane Run too.....but I would not single him. I just like Cacique too much in that race. I will have to play both of them in any pick-3s I play.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Well I guess we basically agree on the horses and just disagree about how to bet them. I like Hurricane Run too.....but I would not single him. I just like Cacique too much in that race. I will have to play both of them in any pick-3s I play.

As far as C.Q. goes,lets just hope he gets a post like he did in his other races at Churchill.You see,it could have been the surface.It could have been the distance(really the pace of 23'1 that he may not of been thrilled with.) You have to also consider that his rider has routinely blown rides on raters from the inside post positions.He repeats the same mistakes.He gets trapped down inside(and behind)horses,and has to wait for others to do what they may.It is his one major weakness.Same with Happy Ticket's expert ride on that rail.

ON THE RAIL AGAIN.......

JUST CAN'T GET OFF THIS DAMN RAIL AGAIN........

LOCKED IN, AND IT COULDN'T BE MY OWN DAMN FAULT....

CUZ I DON'T WANT TO BE ON THIS DAMN RAIL AGAIN.......

[2MinsToPost]

Lava Man has been in Kentucky for 3 weeks. Connections learned, one would think, from previous mistakes. Way overlooked horse come Saturday. Real runner, will bust out and Dini will have to catch and get lead. I doubt Innnn vvvaaaaa soooorrrrrrrr hits the board. Way I see it, it's Dini or Lava first, the loser of that match finishes 3rd or worse, used up on that loonnnnggggg stretch run to the wire. Sun King, who knows.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by miraja2

But would there be any logical reason why the favorite would win the ditaff more than any other race? I would not think so. Each division is going to be different each year so to me it is not productive to look for divisional trends.

but like any other tool you use to cap, it might be helpful. personally i'm hoping the distaff isn't won by the fave this year! all i meant was if you're looking for a single, the distaff might need more looking at than some of the others, kind of like a lot of people shy away from the derby fave since so often they don't manage to win.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

but like any other tool you use to cap, it might be helpful. personally i'm hoping the distaff isn't won by the fave this year! all i meant was if you're looking for a single, the distaff might need more looking at than some of the others, kind of like a lot of people shy away from the derby fave since so often they don't manage to win.

I sort of see what you are saying....but I just do not agree. If you use that as a handicapping tool that just means you are taking into account things that Azeri or Personal Ensign did years ago to handicap a race that is happening now! That just does not make sense to me. If it is a tool that works for you.....feel free.....but I take each race individually. I am going to bet a favorite or try to beat a favorite based EXCLUSIVELY on what I think of THAT horse and the competition, rather than horses that have run in that race in the past.

[jpops757]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

but like any other tool you use to cap, it might be helpful. personally i'm hoping the distaff isn't won by the fave this year! all i meant was if you're looking for a single, the distaff might need more looking at than some of the others, kind of like a lot of people shy away from the derby fave since so often they don't manage to win.

You can take numbers and prove or disprove about anything after the fact. Just look for the right numbers. Kinda like if the 3 hole has produced more winners tha the 4 hole. Really whats the differance in these 2? The more important thing is who is inside and who is outside of you. Im not knocking statistics , just pointing out some of the very narrow barrings they have on the races.