Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
Seems any horse coming out of PID is capable of strong efforts on any surface. PID to Keeneland runners are grossly apparent daily, and even It's Me Mom, not seen since June after 3 Presque starts, bested Nicole H for Lynne Scace and Willie Martinez Saturday in the Suffolk stake at a fat 12-1. Listening to TVG while driving to KY Saturday, and Simon Bray was noting the Presque Isle form, to wit:
KEE 1: 1st, 2nd, 4th
KEE 3: 1st, 2nd, 3rd EDIT
KEE 7: 2nd, 3rd
DougS? A lot of these horses are getting off at big prices too..
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I've followed this meet this year more than ever before, and it's striking how solid they've been, Steve. I've specifically looked at betting horses who were running wide and going even deeper to horses who ran wide and ran well versus running wide and fading. Was kicking myself yesterday when betting the 11 Sparkling Springs who was 3rd in the third at 26-1, and not betting the 5 or 6 who ran 1-2 and were both sporting PID form, just liked the value the 11 was offering. Used all three in a P4 that was already dead, but didn't play intra-race.
What I find somewhat remarkable about it is that PID form holds up almost regardless of condition - claimers are running well, allowance horses too, even in the stakes. Not only are these horses improving off the Tapeta, but they also are, generally, ignored by the bettors on a regular basis. Here are the stats...
Through 10/22/2011 - 96 starters at KEE Fall 2011 made their last start at PID: 12 - 1st, 10 - 2nd, 12 - 3rd...62 off the board
Average odds of winners at current KEE meet who last ran at PID:
9-1
Number of horses last running at PID to go off favored in KEE race - 4
Number of horses last running at PID to win as favorite in KEE race - 1
10-23-2011, 08:53 AM
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