10/2 (LNG): Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe (Grp 1)

[brockguy]

Feel free to shred these before and/or after the race:


1 Hirono D'Amour - good horse - very nice prep unexposed will love fast ground has trip he likes bullish trainer reports through the week - I think hes the one to beat!

2 Danedream - superb rate of progression *this year slamming 2 half decent German fields, can't see her finding another huge level of improvement here

3 Testosterone - worst name for a filly ever - beaten by Galikova easily last time out and this one is much tougher.

4 Galikova - the danger - looked fantastic in prep, she takes a little while to get going but will be finishing best of all. Trip and ground perfect.

5 Masked Marvel - decent winner of St Leger in fast time, he's improving and wouldn't be a total surprise, but I won't be on him.

6 St Nicholas Abbey - slow and won't win. Ground probably too quick.

7 Reliable Man - ground concerns may have beaten a sick Meandre last time out - I'm not convinced by him.

8 Workforce - last years winner, better race this year had problems since king George - same happened last year and he won. Ground could be a worry - I won't be on him.

9 Sherata - not good enough.

10 Meandre - reportedly sick when prepping still relatively unexposed, trainer has unbelievable record in it, one to skip with caution.

11 Snow Fairy - trip and ground perfect, this is her time of the year, gave so you think a race over 2f shorter last time out, she can be right there at the end but think all the value is now gone - she was 20-1 last week!

12 Treasure Beach - Irish derby winner is slow but not as slow as St Nics Abbey - would be a shock.

13 Sarafina - I'm not convinced by her. *was incredibly unlucky in last years arc which most people have been pointing to and has been decent beating my pick last time out, I just think others have bigger improvements in them. Draw not ideal.

14 So You Think - a fantastic horse who was super tough in Australia - big worry for me is that OBriens record in October November is shocking - most of his horses are done by this stage of the season - So You Think is the horse that can buck that trend but as favourite I want everything right and will let him beat me. Draw not ideal either especially as he likes to race handily.

15 Silver Pond - I took 400-1 on him as he was a decent horse at the start of the year - he's priced up as the worst horse in the field but think there are a few that hrs better than - may be that 5th or 6th will be his limit.

16 Nakayama Festa - draw not great last years runner up has had injury issues this year and comeback run wasn't great - he has drifted in betting also - same thing happened last year when most of the support went for subsequent Dubai world cup winner victoire Pisa! I'll keep him on the right side.