Blind Luck Is Awesome; To be offered at KEE Nov. Sale

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

All true but that's the main point. There is very little consistency among them. They are all big ifs. Flat Out just won today what I believe is his first graded stakes and he dominated it in such a fashion that hopes are up that he might be something good, forgetting he's five and not a 3yo in his fourth career start and what he did last out.

A major difference between the older male division and the female one is the stakes programs offered to each. Part of the reason the older males take turns beating each other is that they are forced to ship around. The Donn winner has been on the road. The Big Cap winner has been on the road. NYRA's stakes are geared towards milers in the early part of the season. There's not a lot of opportunity to lay down a string of good races at the same venue.

The females meanwhile can get away with being homebodies. Why are we blessed with such consistent machines like Havre de Grace and Awesome Maria? One big reason is they haven't had to face one another. They have convenient Grade 3 preps before the signature events which allows them to rack up wins. Havre de Grace has run in one significant race all year, and got up to beat, but did not dominate, Switch--a good barometer for her division. Arguably, Awesome Maria hasn't run in an important race all year. They've had things their own way all season. Let them sort themselves out first before declaring all 3 capable of facing males.

Even if there was a truly dominant female, that wouldn't mean it could hang with the boys anyways. Better mares like Bayakoa ('90 Big Cap unplaced), Paseana ('92 Pacific Classic uplaced), and Gorgeous ('90 Pimlico Special unplaced) tried males when the older horses seemed in flux, yet got chewed up and spit out anyways. It would probably need to be an advantageous spot for one of those fillies to beat males this year.

Maybe if they run the Brooklyn a week before the Jockey Club Gold Cup again their might be an opportunity...