Dave "Bombs Away" Liftin

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

Best Bet should mean the horse you can't wait to drive an hour to the track to risk half a day's wages.
Who the hell looks forward to betting a $2.30 horse?

I don't disagree. "Best bet" is really a bad term for it. Everyone has their own way though. Kasept uses two different horses for "most likely winner" and "Best Value" each race ... yet, many times, the most likely winner in a race is also the best value. Further - sometimes there looks to be no identifiable value in the race.... and getting a price when real odds appear is all you can do with races like that.

At the bottom of every card - I have them put 'Most Likely Winner' for only the day - and 'Best Value' for only the day... with the name of horse and race number for each.

It's not the traditional accepted way of doing it - but who cares.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I don't disagree. "Best bet" is really a bad term for it. Everyone has their own way though. Kasept uses two different horses for "most likely winner" and "Best Value" each race ... yet, many times, the most likely winner in a race is also the best value. Further - sometimes there looks to be no identifiable value in the race.... and getting a price when real odds appear is all you can do with races like that.

At the bottom of every card - I have them put 'Most Likely Winner' for only the day - and 'Best Value' for only the day... with the name of horse and race number for each.

It's not the traditional accepted way of doing it - but who cares.

It's not that untraditional Doug... I see cappers having a bottom of the selections 'Most Likely' and 'Best Value'. I think Rich Eng does it for one. When I put the Best Value horse on top, I don't use the Most Likely tag at all. I'm saying the top choice is both the best value and most likely. Agree on the no value at times thought, and in those circumstances I'll use Most Likely, Next Best, Exotics Use, Super Add.

I get Jack's point about paying for analysis and getting obvious info too. But it's a capper-by-capper interpretation at DRF it seems because Mike Welsch approaches Best Bet as the horse he thinks has the best chance to win at the best price. (That's my approach in every race.) I first saw Dave Litfin's work in Metro Turf a million years ago, and always seemed to land on the same horses he did back then. As mentioned, the Best Bet thing is an individual approach. What I find of little value in this area is the use of MTO's as his top choices in turf races.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Kasept

What I find of little value in this area is the use of MTO's as his top choices in turf races.

I don't blame anyone at all for that. It's something I would certainly do if I was in his place.

The weather can sometimes be harder to forecast than how you expect the odds to go.

If it rains - you get the horse you want for dirt. If it doesn't - you scratch into the horse you want for turf. Where's the harm?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I don't blame anyone at all for that. It's something I would certainly do if I was in his place.

The weather can sometimes be harder to forecast than how you expect the odds to go.

If it rains - you get the horse you want for dirt. If it doesn't - you scratch into the horse you want for turf. Where's the harm?

I don't know.. Does anyone have to be made aware that one of 2-3 MTO's, and typically 2-1 or 5-2 on the line, is the choice if the race comes off?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Kasept

I don't know.. Does anyone have to be made aware that one of 2-3 MTO's, and typically 2-1 or 5-2 on the line, is the choice if the race comes off?

If the MTO is the best betting option - why not?

I remember doing research - and over an 8 year stretch at Saratoga (all the charts I had to work with at the time) the post time favorite in races taken off of the turf had an ungodly high win percentage and a profitable ROI.

If I had to speculate on Litfin's motives for doing that - I'm sure it's because he wants the winner credited to him.

If it's a 9 race card with 4 turf races - and he's 0-for-5 in the dirt races - he's stairing an 0-for-9 duck in the face with 4 turf horses who are probably poorly meant for the dirt.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I don't blame anyone at all for that. It's something I would certainly do if I was in his place.

The weather can sometimes be harder to forecast than how you expect the odds to go.

If it rains - you get the horse you want for dirt. If it doesn't - you scratch into the horse you want for turf. Where's the harm?

The problem with what he does is he chooses an MTO on top and basically only handicaps two horses for the race. When you're doing your work as far in advance as he does you have to have some type of provision for races coming off the turf, I understand that but there might be a better method.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

The problem with what he does is he chooses an MTO on top and basically only handicaps two horses for the race. When you're doing your work as far in advance as he does you have to have some type of provision for races coming off the turf.

I know.

Don't they have those silly public handicapper contests at Saratoga to see who can select the most top pick winners?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I know.

Don't they have those silly public handicapper contests at Saratoga to see who can select the most top pick winners?

Seth Merrow from Equidaily compiles the numbers mid-meet and at the end. Very few public handicappers report ROI, which is a much more important statistic to me than a win %.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Seth Merrow from Equidaily compiles the numbers mid-meet and at the end. Very few public handicappers report ROI, which is a much more important statistic to me than a win %.

I agree 100% about ROI - but there are obvious reasons why public handicappers don't report them.

I did not have a profitable one the 1st PID meet - and I bemoaned (to myself, because no one else cares) stuff like 'you can't see the odds 36 hours ahead of time - and position yourself on the best option in relation to post time odds' - 'you can't adjust to scratches that change the complexion of pace dynamics' etc etc.

My ROI has been profitable here every year since - and the only few guys who actually care are the Tate brothers (black guys who dress like pimps and only bet $10-to-$20 a race) the janitor (great guy) my father (not so great guy) and the little Italian cook who only bets my numbers. Take a poll - most of the people probably think Katie is way sharper than me - and she has finally figured out the difference between the abbreviations for Delta Downs and Delaware Park after only 3 years.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Kasept

When I put the Best Value horse on top, I don't use the Most Likely tag at all. I'm saying the top choice is both the best value and most likely.

I know - I think you don't do the reverse of that nearly often enough though.

A lot of times the post time favorite or one of the shorter prices that you correctly identify as "most likely" is also "the best value" ... I don't notice you labeling many 6/5 shots as "best value" ... but relative to the other options in the race .. sometime they are the best value even at short odds.

And with extreme favorites - take the Sunland race that Plum Pretty won by 20+ lengths over a bunch of total goats - the best value should have been a non existant horse called "nobuddy"

I'm not trying to give you a hard time at all - as this is more about 'the wording of terms' than anything else.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I know - I think you don't do the reverse of that nearly often enough though.

A lot of times the post time favorite or one of the shorter prices that you correctly identify as "most likely" is also "the best value" ... I don't notice you labeling many 6/5 shots as "best value" ... but relative to the other options in the race .. sometime they are the best value even at short odds.

And with extreme favorites - take the Sunland race that Plum Pretty won by 20+ lengths over a bunch of total goats - the best value should have been a non existant horse called "nobuddy"

I'm not trying to give you a hard time at all - as this is more about 'the wording of terms' than anything else.

I get your point and it's very true about Most Likely = Best Value in various circumstances. If I had the time to write more elaborate analysis/comments the way I used to, I'd love to. I try to communicate as much as possible with the simple monikers, and believe those that have followed my opinion understand what I'm implying with the placement of the tabs. I generally make 'OTT' selections on a separate line and then move them into the body copy when revising the write-up post-SCR. But you're right about the wording and individual ideas of what they mean to people reading or writing them.