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#1
05-28-2011, 05:02 AM
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5/28: Belmont ($30k C/O); Churchill (P5); Arlington (Classic)
Hard to believe the summer season is about to start, but Memorial Day Weekend is here, and with it comes many strong slates of racing. Belmont complied with the kickoff to the three day holiday with a $30k P6 carryover on today's difficult card, and deep, competitive fields in the Churchill and Arlington stakes anchor good programs in Louisville and Chicago. Thoughts on the NY P6, KY P5 and Arlington Classic below. Have a safe and enjoyable Memorial Day Weekend... ATR from Belmont on Met Mile morning Monday!
BELMONT PARK POST-SCRATCHES 5th: S/ALW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super) $30k P6 C/O Starts Here.. Most Likely: #1 Longhammer 3-1 4th Next Best: #3 Big Blue Kitten 4-1 WON ($6.60) Exotics Use: #9 Freshman Dorm 4-1 5th Super Add: #2 Eleven Final Fours 5-1 6th 6th: CLM, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super) Just 7 here but a very dangerous portion of difficult P6 sequence.. Best Value: #6 Artie's Chapter 5-1 3rd Next Best: #2 Monte Carlo 2-1 WON ($3.90) Exotics Use: #3 Forty Prayers 6-1 2nd Super Add: #7 Hot Minute 5-2 4th 7th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super) Bond fave #3 Rocky F faced serious horses in his Florida unveiling including G2 Dixie participant Slews Answer and ALW winners Gathering Cloud and Silver Rock. 4+ months off, but looks dominant here if close to ready. Plenty of choices for underneath to add value though, and Weaver's 15-1 Appian Way has some sibling strength hinting at grass prowess despite the lousy effort first time on weeds.. Most Likely: #3 ROCKY F 2-1 WON ($3.50) Best Value: #5 Appian Way 15-1 5th Next Best: #1 Rumbletown 4-1 7th Super Add: #7 Raffie's Choice 12-1 3rd 8th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super) Another good and tricky race with some distinct contenders and a lurking Lisa Lewis returnee (#8 Untamed Glory 2nd) that should scare the bejeezus out you.. Most Likely: #4 Chalk Player 3-1 WON ($8.20) Best Value: #9 Bretton Woods 6-1 5th Next Best: #6 My Man Nell 5-2 3rd Super Add: #3 Grandma 10-1 7th 9th: 53rd Sheepshead Bay (G2), F&M-3+, 11f-T (DD) Six betting interests and it sure feels like at least 5 can win with the Biancone entry the lone suspects... not a welcome addition to the already daunting sequence(s). As brought up Friday on ATR, you should always feel comfortable forgiving seemingly inexplicable 'off' efforts over the Keeneland turf, as it is not a surface that every lawn loper loves. Under that premise, La Luna de Miel (5-2) commands respect.. Most Likely: #6 La Luna de Miel 5-2 5th Best Value: #4 Cheetah 6-1 3rd Next Best: #3 Hibaayeb 2-1 WON ($4.90) 10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (Super) So.. You made it to the nightcap and are 'alive'. Be prepared for agony unless you can cover about 6 in here. Brutal end to a challenging card. Note that Rumbletown (See 7th above) exits the same race as second out Hurricane Hill. Doesn't the brother of the great Wonder Again (#6 Wonder Beyond) have to get it done at some point? Best Value: #7 Elusive Male 4-1 4th Next Best: #6 Wonder Beyond 7-2 3rd Exotics Use: #4 Hurricane Hill 6-1 7th Super Add: #10 Christmas Punch 6-1 WON ($12.80) <$150 P5 P6 Play: 5: 1-3-9 6: 2-3-6-7 7: 3 8: 4 9: 3-4-6 10: 6-7 3x4x1x1x3x2 = 72 x $2 = $144 $2 P6 Conso (5 of 6) Paid $25.00 x 2 = $50.00 <$50 P4 Play: 7: 3 8: 3-4-6-8-9 9: 2-3-4-5-6 10: 4-6-7-10 1x5x5x4 = 100 x .50 = $50 .50 P4 (3-4-3-10) Paid $77.10 CHURCHILL DOWNS POST-SCRATCHES 7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD, Super) Helluva good race.. Best Value: #8 Lady Jadana 8-1 7th Next Best: #2 Media Madness 2-1 WON ($4.20) Exotics Use: #7 Breaking Promises 3-1 2nd Super Add: #5 Paoli Princess 10-1 4th 8th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #2 Garnet Crystals 5-2 WON ($5.20) Next Best: #6 Eye Opener 4-1 4th Best Value: #1 Goodnessgraciousme 8-1 7th Super Add: #7 Golden Phoenix 7-2 3rd 9th: MSW, 3+, 9f (P3, DD, Super) Best Value: #3 Lake Creek 5-1 9th Next Best: #1 Shrill 3-1 WON ($5.20) Exotics Use: #7 D'marin 10-1 7th Super Add: #5 Son of a General 8-1 4th 10th: 74th Louisville H. (G3), 3+, 12f-T (DD, Super) Good edition of this standard with both faves having issues that provide caution. Noble Keertana (2-1) faces males but doesn't enjoy much benefit at the scales, and 9yo stalwart Musketier has to deal with ground loss issues from the 10 hole.. Best Value: #3 Guys Reward 6-1 3rd Next Best: #4 Keertana 2-1 WON ($5.00) Exotics Use: #10 Musketier 9-5 5th Super Add: #9 Bearpath 8-1 2nd 11th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f (Super, Super Hi-5) Most Likely: #7 Wild Tizzy 3-1 7th Best Value: #1 Perfect Shadow 8-1 9th Next Best: #5 Smokinlisa 7-2 3rd Exotics Use: #2 Lov Toc 4-1 WON ($8.40) Hi-5 Play: #8 Wildcat Jillee 10-1 4th <$75 P5 Play: 7: 2-5-6-7-8 8: 2 9: 1-3-7 10: 3-4-9-10 11: 1-7 5x1x3x4x2 = 120 x .50 = $60 <$50 P4 Play: 8: 2-6 9: 1-3-7 10: 3-4-9-10 11: 1-2-5-7 2x3x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48 .50 P4 (2-1-4-2) Paid $77.10 ARLINGTON PARK -- STAKES SPOT PLAY POST-SCRATCHES 9th: 77th Arlington Classic, 3yo, 8.5f-T (DD, Super) As great a betting affair as you'll see with a variety of overlays nearly guaranteed by the underlaid ML on Willcox Inn (3-1) and Extensive (7-2). As discussed on Friday ATR with his trainer Ian Wilkes, #3 Fort Larned ran his best career race on grass and should have an ideal trip. 15-1 might not hold, but you're certain to have at least a $20 horse to work around by post time. This is a 'swing for the fences' race.. Best Value: #3 FORT LARNED 15-1 8th Next Best: #4 Suntracer 6-1 2nd Exotics Use: #7 Forbidden Forest 15-1 7th Super Add: #1 Legendary King 20-1 6th .50 TRIFECTA PLAY: 3 with 1-2-4-7 with 1-2-4-6-7-9-12 (1x4x6 = 24 x .50 = $12) Good luck! Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 05-28-2011 at 07:52 PM. 
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#2
05-28-2011, 08:00 AM
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Really like Simmard to run a big race in Louisville today...............
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A racehorse is an animal that can take several thousand people for a ride at the same time. ~Author Unknown
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#4
05-28-2011, 11:07 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#5
05-28-2011, 11:09 AM
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AP SCR/CHG'S
Race: 9 Changes Time Posted #7 Forbidden Forest Jockey - Junior Alvarado changed to Eusebio Razo, Jr. 11:19 AM ET #8 Swagger Jack Scratched - Stewards 11:17 AM ET #10 Strong Appeal Scratched - Stewards 11:17 AM ET #11 Twojohnsandajack Scratched - Stewards 11:17 AM ET
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#6
05-28-2011, 11:10 AM
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BEL SCR/CHG'S
Dominguez off mounts after yesterday's scary spill; Garrett Gomez is in town and picks up 3 mounts including Rocky F..
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#11
05-28-2011, 03:18 PM
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Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#12
05-28-2011, 03:35 PM
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Quote:
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#13
05-28-2011, 03:48 PM
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That was a savvy ride by the bug boy.
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#15
05-28-2011, 04:34 PM
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Wow.. Lanerie on El Crespo absolutely killed Bearpath there.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#16
05-28-2011, 04:36 PM
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Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#18
05-28-2011, 04:45 PM
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Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#19
05-28-2011, 05:02 PM
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nice run today steveo great job all n all
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