5/25: Belmont Park ($43k C/O)

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

You're right, we should just assume that every McLaughlin returnee is going to run off the page regardless of past performance.

The past performances are from 8 months ago when she was a 2yo... Obviously there was an issue that she only is getting back to the races now, and the improvement from 2 to 3 is typically pretty big. She was a $500,000 yearling by Distorted Humor out of a full sister to Anees. It's a big surprise that she may have actual talent?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Kasept

The past performances are from 8 months ago when she was a 2yo... Obviously there was an issue that she only is getting back to the races now, and the improvement from 2 to 3 is typically pretty big. She was a $500,000 yearling by Distorted Humor out of a full sister to Anees. It's a big surprise that she may have actual talent?

Right, because we've never seen Darley blow a ton of money on well-bred horses who can't run before. The point is that the horse was unbettable at 3-1, so you either have to pass the race or play against her and cross your fingers that she's not going to jump into a new stratosphere first time back.

[MISTERGEE]

Mclaughlin is 4 for 14 off layoffs the last yr at Belmont with a Plus 52% ROI

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE

Mclaughlin is 4 for 14 off layoffs the last yr at Belmont with a Plus 52% ROI

No he isn't.

[MISTERGEE]

thats what equibase trackmaster has him at

[MISTERGEE]

http://partners.trackmaster.com/cgi-...=EQB&TRACK=BEL

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE

thats what equibase trackmaster has him at

The problem is that isn't separating surface, amount of layoff, etc. Too broad for my taste.

[GPK]

This Curatolo kid is starting to get on my f*cking nerves.

[MISTERGEE]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

The problem is that isn't separating surface, amount of layoff, etc. Too broad for my taste.

actually it shows on turf only he was 1 for 8

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Right, because we've never seen Darley blow a ton of money on well-bred horses who can't run before. The point is that the horse was unbettable at 3-1, so you either have to pass the race or play against her and cross your fingers that she's not going to jump into a new stratosphere first time back.

She's a Shadwell purchase, and you know their use of money is consistenty more judicious. I didn't bet the race other than use her (and others) in the P3's & P4, but Eric Donovan pointed in the right direction making her the second choice. I just can't see why you're making out like this was some stunning putover. She won by a couple lengths in 1:10.1. Likely a low/mid 80's Beyer, in line with natural development from 2 to 3. What's so shocking after she left the scene at 2 breaking her maiden with a 75?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Kasept

She's a Shadwell purchase, and you know their use of money is consistenty more judicious. I didn't bet the race other than use her (and others) in the P3's & P4, but Eric Donovan pointed in the right direction making her the second choice. I just can't see why you're making out like this was some stunning putover. She won by a couple lengths in 1:10.1. Likely a low/mid 80's Beyer, in line with natural development from 2 to 3. What's so shocking after she left the scene at 2 breaking her maiden with a 75?

My guess is closer to 90 today, and based on the field she beat in her maiden race, that 75 even looked a little generous. The bottom line is like I said, if it wasn't a McLaughlin horse, she would've been 10-1 or higher and most likely run like it.

To play this horse, you had to (a). completely disregard the poor field behind her in her maiden race, (b). assume she'd improve 10-15 points off an 8-month layoff and (c). assume this wasn't a tightener for something longer, considering she had last run at a mile and McLaughlin's layoff numbers. For all of that, you got 3-1. Things like that just make the race unplayable.

[hockey2315]

Anybody want to post top two from races 6,7,8 for me? Equibase mobile is sucking.

[Scav]

6: 9-4-10

7: 1-3-4

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Anybody want to post top two from races 6,7,8 for me? Equibase mobile is sucking.

Race 6 was 9-4-10. They're going in the gate for the 7th right now.

[hockey2315]

Thanks, Nick.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Thanks, Nick.

No problem. Race 7 was 1-3-4.

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Anybody want to post top two from races 6,7,8 for me? Equibase mobile is sucking.

It seems like results come in a half hour late somedays. I usually end up having to call my phonebet acct and find out that way.

[Kasept]

Alseera 86 Beyer

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Kasept

She's a Shadwell purchase, and you know their use of money is consistenty more judicious. I didn't bet the race other than use her (and others) in the P3's & P4, but Eric Donovan pointed in the right direction making her the second choice. I just can't see why you're making out like this was some stunning putover. She won by a couple lengths in 1:10.1. Likely a low/mid 80's Beyer, in line with natural development from 2 to 3. What's so shocking after she left the scene at 2 breaking her maiden with a 75?

I missed this yesterday Steve.

ML makers, and surely Eric, don't " point people in the right direction " with their betting lines. They make lines based on how they think people will bet. Eric thought " people " would really go for that horse. So did I. We were wrong....though considering how impossible she was on paper, her odds were VERY low. But, she got a perfect trip versus a vulnerable favorite. She also improved from 2 to 3, which was really the only way you could play her. Her races last year were dreadful. How is the runner up from her maiden win doing? Is she still trying to break her maiden at Penn National? She was last I looked.