Nehro's Trip?

pba1817 · #1 05-09-2011, 08:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Got to admit, that I wasn't really around too much this weekend and maybe I missed it somewhere.
But does anyone else have issue or question the trip that Nehro seemed to get? He seemed to be four to five wide and uncovered pretty much the entire way. I don't have a problem with him wanting to be closer to the lead, but it seemed to me that he got struck in a bad spot. Then to make matters worse Nakatani seemed to move him prematurely.
This is not a case of sour grapes, because I didn't use Animal Kingdom at all. So as long as AK ran no worse than second, my tickets were going to be rip-up's anyway. AK ran a great race and I'm happy for Johnny V, he gave AK a great trip.
This is nothing more than a question that I thought I would have seen discussed around here by now (unless I missed the thread somewhere).

Where else was he supposed to go with a 18 hole and a serious lack of pace?

The ride was good, and the horse ran big, simply was over-matched when the winner came to him....

MaTH716 · #2 05-09-2011, 09:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pba1817

Where else was he supposed to go with a 18 hole and a serious lack of pace?

The ride was good, and the horse ran big, simply was over-matched when the winner came to him....

I don't know about you, but I didn't think that there was a serious lack of pace in the race. They ended up not putting up suicidal numbers, but it wasn't a crawl either.
I just didn't understand why Nakatani didn't try to work out more of a trip like Johnny V worked out on AK. I could understand if they wanted to be closer to the front, but it certainly wasn't worth being 4-5 wide and uncovered for most of the trip. Then there was the question of whether he moved him to soon, obviously I thought he went early.
Maybe he was over confident in his horses ability. Just figured that he had the best horse and all he had to do was keep him clear and that would be enough to win.

ateamstupid · #3 05-09-2011, 11:35 PM

I thought Nak moved too early and went wider than he needed to on the far turn, but I think his hand was probably forced when the horse on his outside (can't remember who it was offhand) moved after the lead as well. I think Animal Kingdom would've beaten him anyway, but Nehro had to run harder for longer.

Rootdog1 · #4 05-10-2011, 07:39 AM

Based on the result, it looks like he moved too early. I think he tried to take the lead and Shackleford responded...in my opinion that cost them both a placing - although I think it was the right move for Nak...he got aggressive and tried to win the race. I was suprised how close up he was the entire trip...a dynamic I didnt think Nehro had in him, and makes him more dangerous down the road.

slotdirt · #5 05-10-2011, 08:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716

I don't know about you, but I didn't think that there was a serious lack of pace in the race. They ended up not putting up suicidal numbers, but it wasn't a crawl either.
I just didn't understand why Nakatani didn't try to work out more of a trip like Johnny V worked out on AK. I could understand if they wanted to be closer to the front, but it certainly wasn't worth being 4-5 wide and uncovered for most of the trip. Then there was the question of whether he moved him to soon, obviously I thought he went early.
Maybe he was over confident in his horses ability. Just figured that he had the best horse and all he had to do was keep him clear and that would be enough to win.

I realize the pace wasn't "suicidal," but it was the slowest Derby pace since 1947. Fast for the average route race? Sure, but definitely not quick for the average Kentucky Derby.

parsixfarms · #6 05-10-2011, 10:20 AM

While Nehro was far back in a fast-paced Arkansas Derby, he wasn't that far off a modest pace in the Louisiana Derby.

MaTH716 · #7 05-10-2011, 10:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

While Nehro was far back in a fast-paced Arkansas Derby, he wasn't that far off a modest pace in the Louisiana Derby.

Yeah, but he had an inside trip and saved ground the entire way.

parsixfarms · #8 05-10-2011, 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Yeah, but he had an inside trip and saved ground the entire way.

He had an inside post at FG and an outside post in the Derby. Tough to fault Nakatani's ride.

MaTH716 · #9 05-10-2011, 11:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

He had an inside post at FG and an outside post in the Derby. Tough to fault Nakatani's ride.

I really have no problem with the change in tactics of wanting to be closer to the lead (even though it looked on paper that the pace was going to be quick). Obviously the 18 post comprimised things and the more I think about it maybe it was just more of a case of bad luck then anything. He was probably hoping to get closer to the lead and tuck into that second flight of horses that usally develops behind the speedballs. But since the pace wasn't that hot, a second flight never developed. It was just one big pack and he was committed to being up there. Then he got stuck on the outside, while AK got a fairly clean trip in the middle/back of that pack (which was more of the trip I envisioned for Nehro).

That being said, I still think he went with him a bit early.

Gate Dancer · #10 05-10-2011, 11:04 AM

If you had watched Nehro's past races on replay, he actually did have a fair amount of speed, if he was asked. I agree it was best to go a little hard early and avoid the traffic issues by being a bit wide around the turns. He ran a very good race and I don't think he was going to beat Animal Kingdom anyway. I know there was talk about him being the 'wise guy' horse but he actually was the logical horse to include in your Top 3. I hope he does well in the Belmont and sticks around for a few years. With the Mindshaft pedigree he certainly has the chance to improve.............