Derby field, where they should go, Preakness possibles

[slotdirt]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Over a very quick racetrack. But yet, we're supposed to believe the pace was 'decent'.

Honestly? It was just a very weirdly run race. Zero excuses for Shackleford, I know that much.

[justindew]

I'm 100% serious about taking 4-1 on AK winning the Triple Crown. Here is my logic...

He'll be 9-5 in the Preakness, which I obviously belive he will win. Then he will be 3-5 in the Belmont. So at 4-1, I'm getting value...

..but not much, clearly. It sounds like I could have gotten better than 4-1 from this group. Dumb move by me. Should have asked for at least 6-1.

But I'll keep my word. I'll lay $100 to the first person to PM me.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by justindew

I'm 100% serious about taking 4-1 on AK winning the Triple Crown. Here is my logic...

He'll be 9-5 in the Preakness, which I obviously belive he will win. Then he will be 3-5 in the Belmont. So at 4-1, I'm getting value...

..but not much, clearly. It sounds like I could have gotten better than 4-1 from this group. Dumb move by me. Should have asked for at least 6-1.

But I'll keep my word. I'll lay $100 to the first person to PM me.

PM sent.

Paul

[justindew]

Originally Posted by pweizer

PM sent.

Paul

Deal.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by justindew

Deal.

Thanks for the bet. It looks like we will get a full field of 14 for the Preakness. There will then be lots of others waiting in the wings for a shot at Belmont.

We don't know what track conditions will be, what racing luck he will have, even if he can stay healthy until June. There is a reason we have not had a Triple Crown winner since 1978.

Animal Kingdom may turn out to be the second coming of Affirmed. But since the horse has only five lifetime starts and will now make three starts in five weeks, I like my chances.


Paul

[justindew]

Originally Posted by pweizer

Thanks for the bet. It looks like we will get a full field of 14 for the Preakness. There will then be lots of others waiting in the wings for a shot at Belmont.

We don't know what track conditions will be, what racing luck he will have, even if he can stay healthy until June. There is a reason we have not had a Triple Crown winner since 1978.

Animal Kingdom may turn out to be the second coming of Affirmed. But since the horse has only five lifetime starts and will now make three starts in five weeks, I like my chances.


Paul

I made a stupid bet, which I think I will win.

[slotdirt]

What I really want to know is how someone actually moved a horse up off Catalano?

[herkhorse]

put down the mint juleps

[Dunbar]

The Greek is offering 6.9-1 that there will be a TC:

Will there be a 2011 Triple Crown winner
4001 Yes +690
4002 No -1010

5Dimes is offering 3.25-1 on Animal Kingdom winning the Preakness:

Sat 5/21 101 Animal Kingdom wins Preakness +325
6:30PM 102 Field wins Preakness

--Dunbar

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

The Greek is offering 6.9-1 that there will be a TC:

Will there be a 2011 Triple Crown winner
4001 Yes +690
4002 No -1010

5Dimes is offering 3.25-1 on Animal Kingdom winning the Preakness:

Sat 5/21 101 Animal Kingdom wins Preakness +325
6:30PM 102 Field wins Preakness

--Dunbar

I am a certified moron.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by justindew

I am a certified moron.

After tossing a bunch of unwarranted vitriol my way for merely opining the obvious, he now admits that which cannot be denied.

[Merlinsky]

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/rac...l-kingdom.aspx

Gotta love (probably unnecessary) drama.

[parsixfarms]

I realize that the conventional wisdom seems to be that a faster pace in the Preakness will only help Animal Kingdom's chances. With the slow pace in the Derby, the race was run like a turf race. That may explain why so many of the turf/synthetic horses seemed to run well on Saturday. If horses like Flashpoint and Dance City join the fray in Baltimore, the pace is almost assured to be much faster, and I'm not sure that a faster pace necessarily helps Animal Kingdom's chances in the Preakness.

[slotdirt]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I realize that the conventional wisdom seems to be that a faster pace in the Preakness will only help Animal Kingdom's chances. With the slow pace in the Derby, the race was run like a turf race. That may explain why so many of the turf/synthetic horses seemed to run well on Saturday. If horses like Flashpoint and Dance City join the fray in Baltimore, the pace is almost assured to be much faster, and I'm not sure that a faster pace necessarily helps Animal Kingdom's chances in the Preakness.

I've been thinking that exact thing. Great comment.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I realize that the conventional wisdom seems to be that a faster pace in the Preakness will only help Animal Kingdom's chances. With the slow pace in the Derby, the race was run like a turf race. That may explain why so many of the turf/synthetic horses seemed to run well on Saturday. If horses like Flashpoint and Dance City join the fray in Baltimore, the pace is almost assured to be much faster, and I'm not sure that a faster pace necessarily helps Animal Kingdom's chances in the Preakness.

I see your point but disagree. One thing that Animal Kingdom always had going for him, even before we found out he'd handle dirt, is that he's very handy. He has won from a stalking position and now won from well off the pace in the two biggest races of his life.

The issue that he would run into in a fast paced race is if JV asks him to stay too close because he's uncomfortable about being too far back. I don't really see that happening because he seems to be the type of horse that can almost be placed anywhere.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Honestly? It was just a very weirdly run race. Zero excuses for Shackleford, I know that much.

You could blame it on Forestry, but interestingly, the mare was bred to another sprinter, Orientate, and got Lady Joanne who won at 10 f. She was later bred to A.P. Indy and that foal probably won't get a mile.