11/4 - My Budget - Your Suggestions

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Ateam,
To me that's not going heavy at all. You are simply using your money in a way where you have a chance to make a score early. If you have no good feeling on a race, then obviously you should play it for less, but I think people make mistakes by simply going easy early and big late. Sometimes the bombs come in early, and if you are playing conservatively you miss the payday.

The point is you're pretty much going into the races blind if you give an equal amount to the early races.. You don't know how the track's gonna be playing or what kinda feeling for the day the early races are gonna give you. To me, it's much easier to get a feel for what the day's gonna bring before I invest heavily. Unless I have a horse I absolutely love no matter what in the early races.

[randallscott35]

Again, no one else knows how the track is playing either. Thus no one is at an advantage and an overlay may have a better chance of winning when people don't realize a bias early on....There is no bad betting race on BC day. There is value in every single race. Sometimes it will come through, sometimes it won't.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Again, no one else knows how the track is playing either. Thus no one is at an advantage and an overlay may have a better chance of winning when people don't realize a bias early on....There is no bad betting race on BC day. There is value in every single race. Sometimes it will come through, sometimes it won't.

So you'd rather bet based on no one else knowing something rather than you knowing something?

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

So you'd rather bet based on no one else knowing something rather than you knowing something?

You are simply assuming there is a bias. The times the BC are at Bel and CD, I see many fewer biases. To simply layoff the first couple of races is ridiculous. Biases, even they are there, can change throughout the day. Many times you trick yourself into a bias and suddenly you've missed a haveable horse b/c you convinced yourself they couldn't win.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

You are simply assuming there is a bias. The times the BC are at Bel and CD, I see many fewer biases. To simply layoff the first couple of races is ridiculous. Biases, even they are there, can change throughout the day. Many times you trick yourself into a bias and suddenly you've missed a haveable horse b/c you convinced yourself they couldn't win.

I agree on that. Unless the weather's funky, it's going to be a fair track. I know a few people who get too hung up over it. Bias, anti-bias, etc. Sort of like the logic of illogic.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Well,I don't worry much about a track that isn't playing that fast.You will find that good horses will be able to win on the front regardless of how the track is playing. I am always very concerned about a speed bias though.That can totally destroy the chances of a lot of good horses.Anybody who has ever played Hwd Park on Friday Nights knows how pathetic it can be when they lose control of a track.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

You are simply assuming there is a bias. The times the BC are at Bel and CD, I see many fewer biases. To simply layoff the first couple of races is ridiculous. Biases, even they are there, can change throughout the day. Many times you trick yourself into a bias and suddenly you've missed a haveable horse b/c you convinced yourself they couldn't win.

I didn't say to lay off. I said I'd rather go heavier on the later races once I get a feel for the day, rather than put myself in a hole early making blind bets.

I'm not just talking about biases. There are some days where you're nailing everything and some days where you're ice cold. I like to get a feel for what kind of day it is before I drop anything heavy.

Dropping too much on the early races also makes you change the way you bet later on in the day. If you lose $100-$150 on the first four races, you tend to bet scared the rest of the time and invest too much money just trying to get even.. Whereas if you use the first few races (I'd say two) as more of a feeler, then you're more sure of what you wanna do.

I'm not saying if you have a stone cold lock, to not bet it.. But if there's nothing that screams "BET ME" in the first few races, I'd go minor and wait until I feel like I know what's going on.

There is no doubt in my mind that the way the first few races go, the wagering follows. At Arlington the first two races were won by fairly heavy favorites. The 3rd race was the mile and none other than the Rock of Gibraltor, the heaviest pre BC favorite was up next. If those first two races had not been won by favorites, there is no doubt in my mind that the money laid on the Rock would not have been as heavy. So the call goes out, who do you like cause you are gonna get a price. Well I have no idea about the turf so I dont go near it. But there were people that really liked Domedriver. And they got the horse at a better price imo because the first two races had the favorites winning and winning easily (Azeri).

[TheSpyder]

I disagree PGARDN. I've enever heard of an "odds bias" and don't think it exists. In fact, mathmatically if two favorites come in, odds are against the next race being a favorite, but that's neither here nor there.

I may be wrong but I know of no one who follows odds. Horses, jockeys, trainers, track bias, but not odds.

Anyone else want to weigh in?