Updated Derby Chances - Prep Recap

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Granted he may not be as fast early as The Factor, but don't you think that the above is likely the plan for Soldat (given his failed "rating" attempt) as well? Not to mention Shackelford and Comma To The Top.

I don't think those guys could take back, even if they wanted to.

You're probably right. I can't say I disagree - but if any of those go with The Factor - they will be baked.

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

What was the last wire job in the Derby, War Emblem? Was there any real speed in there that year to begin with? I recall Eddie D. prompting the pace with Perfect Drift, a horse was ridden well off the pace early in his preps.

Here are the past KY Derby leaders after 8fs - and the figure they needed to run to find themselves there (translated through Moss Pace figures) ....

2010: Noble's Promise (109 Beyer)
2009: Join In The Dance (98 Beyer)
2008: Big Brown (104 Beyer)
2007: Hard Spun (104 Beyer)
2006: Barbaro (98 Beyer)
2005: High Fly (109 Beyer)
2004: Lion Heart (112 Beyer)
2003: Peace Rules (106 Beyer)
2002: War Emblem (101 Beyer)
2001: Congaree (112 Beyer)
2000: Captain Steve (104 Beyer)
1999: Cat Thief (104 Beyer)
1998: Real Quiet (117 Beyer)
1997: Free House (106 Beyer)
1996: Unbridled's Song (115 Beyer)
1995: Serena's Song (106 Beyer)


Only 3 times out of 16 years (18.75%) did a horse manage to lead the Derby after a mile while running a figure of 101 or less to that point ....

In order for a horse like The Factor or Soldat to win the Derby - they need two things to happen imo.

* They need to first be loose on an unpressured lead through the opening half mile

* They need to get to the quarter pole running a figure no faster than a 101 or less

Considering the chances of the latter is about 18% ... if they have a 50% chance of pulling off the former ... it gives them about a 9% chance of winning IMO.

Obviously Soldat will have a harder time getting loose on an uncontested lead than The Factor would - for the simple fact that he doesn't have nearly as much early zip.

[analyizethis]

So now that Elite Alex is out of derby where does Borel go? In the last four years he is finished first three times and third once, I can't image he will sit on he bench.

[NTamm1215]

Where Calvin Borel lands will obviously affect the wagering as many are just going to move up whomever he rides and rightfully so.

If Comma to the Top goes and Nakatani keeps that mount then I can see Borel getting on Nehro. With Nehro already shaping up as a ridiculous underlay because of his monstrous close into a wickedly hot pace in the Arkansas Derby his odds will likely go down even more.

Twice the Appeal will more than likely not be ridden by Christian Santiago Reyes in the Derby. It's tough to say Borel will take a mount like this, but we all know what happened in 2007.

Dominguez is likely to keep the mount on Stay Thirsty if he gets in, so there are no Todd Pletcher trainees that Borel could jump on at the last minute.

I understand trainers staying loyal to jockeys, and nothing against Eddie Castro, but if I owned Toby's Corner I'd let Graham Motion know that Calvin Borel might be in the jockeys' room this year and to do something about that.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I was thinking Baffert and Jaycito for Borel. Especially with Baffert naming him on Misremembered.

It's impossible to ignore Borel's stats over that dirt track - especially from an ROI standpoint. They defy logic and reason so much ... that I still have crazy thoughts sometimes about if he has a device or if he's got someone firming up a path litterally right on top of the rail for him. When other guys are "inside" or "racing along the rail" - they don't seem to be quite as far inside as he gets.

When that track is wet - there are many days when the inside was bad for everyone else but great for him - Derby day last year for instance. Almost everything he kept on top of the rail ran huge that day - but otherwise, the four and five paths seemed like the ideal place to be.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Where Calvin Borel lands will obviously affect the wagering as many are just going to move up whomever he rides and rightfully so.

If Comma to the Top goes and Nakatani keeps that mount then I can see Borel getting on Nehro. With Nehro already shaping up as a ridiculous underlay because of his monstrous close into a wickedly hot pace in the Arkansas Derby his odds will likely go down even more.

Twice the Appeal will more than likely not be ridden by Christian Santiago Reyes in the Derby. It's tough to say Borel will take a mount like this, but we all know what happened in 2007.

Dominguez is likely to keep the mount on Stay Thirsty if he gets in, so there are no Todd Pletcher trainees that Borel could jump on at the last minute.

I understand trainers staying loyal to jockeys, and nothing against Eddie Castro, but if I owned Toby's Corner I'd let Graham Motion know that Calvin Borel might be in the jockeys' room this year and to do something about that.

Stay Thirsty is on the bubble in terms of getting into the Derby field? I thought he'd kind of locked that up after the Gotham.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Where Calvin Borel lands will obviously affect the wagering as many are just going to move up whomever he rides and rightfully so.

If Comma to the Top goes and Nakatani keeps that mount then I can see Borel getting on Nehro. With Nehro already shaping up as a ridiculous underlay because of his monstrous close into a wickedly hot pace in the Arkansas Derby his odds will likely go down even more.

Twice the Appeal will more than likely not be ridden by Christian Santiago Reyes in the Derby. It's tough to say Borel will take a mount like this, but we all know what happened in 2007.

Dominguez is likely to keep the mount on Stay Thirsty if he gets in, so there are no Todd Pletcher trainees that Borel could jump on at the last minute.

I understand trainers staying loyal to jockeys, and nothing against Eddie Castro, but if I owned Toby's Corner I'd let Graham Motion know that Calvin Borel might be in the jockeys' room this year and to do something about that.

After the ride he gave Bomber Boy on Friday, I would hold a lot against him.

[tjfla]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Where Calvin Borel lands will obviously affect the wagering as many are just going to move up whomever he rides and rightfully so.

If Comma to the Top goes and Nakatani keeps that mount then I can see Borel getting on Nehro. With Nehro already shaping up as a ridiculous underlay because of his monstrous close into a wickedly hot pace in the Arkansas Derby his odds will likely go down even more.

Twice the Appeal will more than likely not be ridden by Christian Santiago Reyes in the Derby. It's tough to say Borel will take a mount like this, but we all know what happened in 2007.

Dominguez is likely to keep the mount on Stay Thirsty if he gets in, so there are no Todd Pletcher trainees that Borel could jump on at the last minute.

I understand trainers staying loyal to jockeys, and nothing against Eddie Castro, but if I owned Toby's Corner I'd let Graham Motion know that Calvin Borel might be in the jockeys' room this year and to do something about that.

Nehro has gotta be the horse Borel rides. He is the type of horse Borel likes to ride and Nehro might just need the CD Jock Experience that Borel has.

Doubt Nakatani gets off of Comma to the Top,#1 CTTT likes the poly #2 he is a gelding. If Nakatani plays his cards right he could have a ride on him for 2 or 3 more years in Cali. I know Nehro has ALOT better chance and Nakatani wants to win but who knows?

What about Santiva or Animal Kingdom for Borel? I would also throw in Jaycito IF The Factor goes,if The Factor is out then Martin Garcia will ride Jaycito

[justindew]

Is there any possible way no horse wins the Derby? Can all 20 lose somehow?