Offshore Derby odds

[Dunbar]

Here are TheGreek's odds as of 4/12: ("+685" means 6.85 to 1)

5701 Uncle Mo +685
5702 Dialed In +425
5703 The Factor +815
5704 Much Macho Man +1215
5705 Soldat +2050
5706 Stay Thirsty +2050
5707 Jaycito +2550
5708 Santiva +2550
5709 Tobys Corner +2050
5710 Astrology +4050
5711 Sway Away +3250
5712 Elite Alex +2550
5713 JPs Gusto +4550
5714 Brethren +3050
5715 Decisive Moment +6050
5716 Pants on fire +4550
5717 Animal Kingdom +4550
5718 Archarcharch +5250
5719 Twice the appeal +5250
5720 Midnight Interlude +2050
5721 Comma to the top +6550
5722 Watch me go +6550
5723 Nehro +3550
5724 Caleb's posse +6550
5725 Alternation +6550
5726 Shackleford +6550

That's a relatively low-vig line. The odds if converted to probabilities add up to 111%. (but there are possible entries that are not on the list, too)


--Dunbar

[-BT-]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Here are TheGreek's odds as of 4/12: ("+685" means 6.85 to 1)

5701 Uncle Mo +685 * not even a big fan and think this is an overlay, even after this weekend
5702 Dialed In +425
5703 The Factor +815
5704 Much Macho Man +1215 *UNDERLAY
5705 Soldat +2050
5706 Stay Thirsty +2050 *Underlay
5707 Jaycito +2550 * Overlay
5708 Santiva +2550
5709 Tobys Corner +2050 *OVERLAY, might end up being the wiseguy horse this year
5710 Astrology +4050
5711 Sway Away +3250
5712 Elite Alex +2550 *UNDERLAY
** just noticed he's 43 on the graded earnings @ only +2550, head scratcher
5713 JPs Gusto +4550
5714 Brethren +3050
5715 Decisive Moment +6050
5716 Pants on fire +4550
5717 Animal Kingdom +4550
5718 Archarcharch +5250
5719 Twice the appeal +5250
5720 Midnight Interlude +2050
5721 Comma to the top +6550
5722 Watch me go +6550
5723 Nehro +3550
5724 Caleb's posse +6550
5725 Alternation +6550
5726 Shackleford +6550

That's a relatively low-vig line. The odds if converted to probabilities add up to 111%. (but there are possible entries that are not on the list, too)


--Dunbar

Mr. GAAAAAAAAAAAAIIIIIIIIIIINNNNNNNNIIIIIIIIIIIING Ground see's it a different way

http://www.drf.com/news/churchill-do...derby-favorite

Mike Battaglia, the morning-line maker for Churchill Downs, would make The Factor the 7-2 favorite for the Kentucky Derby if the May 7 race were run today, according to a release from Churchill. Dialed In and Uncle Mo are co-second choices on Battaglia's early line at 4-1.

-bt-

[The Indomitable DrugS]

You think 20/1 on Stay Thirsty is an overlay???

Jesus.

In other words - you're saying his chances of winning the KY Derby right now are clearly greater than 5%.

[VOL JACK]

I think he is getting "overlay and underlay" confused (reversed)....

[justindew]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

You think 20/1 on Stay Thirsty is an overlay???

Jesus.

In other words - you're saying his chances of winning the KY Derby right now are clearly greater than 5%.

This might be a case of someone not knowing definitions of the terms underlay and overlay, and having them reversed.

[-BT-]

Originally Posted by justindew

This might be a case of someone not knowing definitions of the terms underlay and overlay, and having them reversed.

correct... adjusted

sorry about that

-bt-

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by -BT-

5712 Elite Alex +2550 *UNDERLAY
** just noticed he's 43 on the graded earnings @ only +2550, head scratcher

Welcome to the often wacky world of offshore futures. The sportsbook Bookmaker (formerly CRIS), generally considered once of the sharpest, is still offering 17-1 on To Honor and Serve and a lousy 15-1 on Premier Pegasus. You'd think they could be more generous on horses that will definitely not run. They are still listing odds on about 150 horses, beginning with Aces and Kings at 250-1. In the past Bookmaker/CRIS has left odds up on dead horses for weeks. And I don't mean figuratively "dead". I mean literally dead.

Among the 150 horses in Bookmaker's list you can occasionally find something worthwhile. There are 4 horses with odds higher than TheGreek's. 3 of them are the horses you marked as "underlays". Bookmaker has:

Elite Alex 27-1
Stay Thirsty 33-1
Mucho Macho Man 22-1

In addition, Bookmaker has Midnight Interlude at 25-1, which would be an overlay according to DrugS's line and would be tempting to me if I wasn't already maxed out by my Future Wager bets.

If I combine those 4 horses' odds with the other 22 from The Greek, the combined line has a 5% takeout. (but again, it doesn't include every horse that might run in the Derby.)



--Dunbar