The Wood

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by Kasept

'Faves all winter on the Inner Track' have zero to do with the Wood Memorial and the all stakes P4 sequence Saturday. Yes you try and beat horses at short odds within races and in multi-race bets. Except you do so when they appear clearly questionable or vulnerable. But in the circumstance Saturday, you needed a large bankroll to be so clever as to attack the quad with the assumption Uncle Mo might lose.

I had suggested a 5x5x2x1 play for $50. The P4 to Uncle Mo was paying $200, so you were getting 4-1 in that case. Toby's Corner was the right 'other' horse, if you believed there was an 'other' horse, and the P4 paid $4,000 (80-1). The problem with trying to get clever Saturday was that the Comely and Bay Shore were tricky, and required slightly wide-cast nets. (4 possible winners in the Comely? As many as 5 plausable winners in the Bay Shore?) The Carter was, for me anyway, Apriority and Morning Line only, so that helped. But trying to get to Toby's Corner on back-up tickets was hard to accept as a prop given that you easily could have ended up with an Ava K (3-2), JJ's Lucky Train (2-1), Apriority (3-2), Uncle Mo (1-9) parlay that returned $37.50.

So in addition to spending $50 on the main ticket, which covers the vast majority of the most likely possible outcomes, your view is that public handicappers suggest to people that they spend an additional $50 to try and snare a much less likely outcome. And those handicappers are supposed to do that knowing that the likliest outcomes may not cover the cost of the tickets? And by the way, Arthur's Tale ended up every bit as 'good' in the race as the winner, so even if you backed up with Toby's Corner, you may have ended up losing had Arthur's Tale gotten to the wire. Or should it have been suggested that people spend another $50 covering Arthur's Tale?

Thanks, but favs do come into the picture when figuring your ticket will be hit with a fav in your sequence, plus your single. I nor anyone else would have covered beyond Mo, at least I wouldn't have. I still say Mo was a bad bet as a single in the P4, even with a 50.00 ticket. 4-1 isn't a very good return on a P4.

Most public handicappers didn't say to spread at all here. And your P4 50.00 play was for a buck, so you where getting 2-1, not 4-1.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by MisterB

Thanks, but favs do come into the picture when figuring your ticket will be hit with a fav in your sequence, plus your single. I nor anyone else would have covered beyond Mo, at least I wouldn't have. I still say Mo was a bad bet as a single in the P4, even with a 50.00 ticket. 4-1 isn't a very good return on a P4.

Most public handicappers didn't say to spread at all here. And your P4 50.00 play was for a buck, so you where getting 2-1, not 4-1.

You're right on the increment, because the will pays screen would have been for $2. So that takes the Mo will-pay to $100 and the Toby's to $2,000 (For $1 as opposed to $2). Anyway, it comes down to philosophy as to what to spend in an attempt to reach a payoff you deem rewarding for your risk. The point I was trying to address was in terms of the contention that it is inappropriate to suggest singling to an Uncle Mo type in that setting Saturday.

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by Kasept

You're right on the increment, because the will pays screen would have been for $2. So that takes the Mo will-pay to $100 and the Toby's to $2,000 (For $1 as opposed to $2). Anyway, it comes down to philosophy as to what to spend in an attempt to reach a payoff you deem rewarding for your risk. The point I was trying to address was in terms of the contention that it is inappropriate to suggest singling to an Uncle Mo type in that setting Saturday.

Most of what I learned from many here, and across the public handicappers nation wide was watch this unfold, and save your money. Many handicappers thought it was not a good bet, and I followed the suggested play from them.

[johnny pinwheel]

this is why you don't listen to public handicappers........uncle mo's race is the type i spread in everytime......do you want the pool? or do you want to share it with thousands of other people? those guys just care about win percentage and looking good to the public.......theres only a few that don't worry about ripping them up and thats their problem. or they have to say certain things for the venue they work at....the guy that hosts this site puts together good tickets (steve) watch how he does it.....heres a hint...the biggest Pick 3 scores come when horses like smarty jones, big brown, rachel and uncle mo lose....people should forget the envy talk and learn how to gamble....take a math class and learn how to take the biggest part of the pool......very few public handicappers even talk about this......THEY GIVE YOU THE 2-5 (1-9) SHOT.....good luck doing well in this game with that! instead of whining and envy talk you can be in line signing a huge win.........people give a crap about all the WRONG things......if uncle mo wins thats my saver...its more of a loss. when he loses...now its something worth cashing.....

[OTM Al]

This is an argument of preference. I singled Uncle Mo as well because I was trying to find my value elsewhere. I went against Ava K in the first leg as a heavy false favorite and also tried for a price with Laysh Laysh Laysh in the third leg on my "A" ticket because of his high level of success at a specilist distance. I bet all of $20, a $1 2x3x3x1 plus a $2 single ticket, which died when Laysh completely missed the break. I was however very happy to see that I would get a gross return of about $101 on the $1 ticket with a win by Uncle Mo. So I actually did both things you are talking about. I tossed a heavy favorite I considered false and went single on another heavy favorite. I wasn't a huge fan of Mo, but even still he looked to tower above the rest. Ava K however didn't even look the 3rd best horse to me.

I think these are the only two reasonable options when facing heavy favorites in a sequence. Either single them or toss them completely. Anything else it throwing away money. Which you do though is preference. Would you rather swing for the fences with a high chance of striking out, or go for a smaller, but much more likely return.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

this is why you don't listen to public handicappers........uncle mo's race is the type i spread in everytime......do you want the pool? or do you want to share it with thousands of other people? those guys just care about win percentage and looking good to the public.......theres only a few that don't worry about ripping them up and thats their problem. or they have to say certain things for the venue they work at....the guy that hosts this site puts together good tickets (steve) watch how he does it.....heres a hint...the biggest Pick 3 scores come when horses like smarty jones, big brown, rachel and uncle mo lose....people should forget the envy talk and learn how to gamble....take a math class and learn how to take the biggest part of the pool......very few public handicappers even talk about this......THEY GIVE YOU THE 2-5 (1-9) SHOT.....good luck doing well in this game with that! instead of whining and envy talk you can be in line signing a huge win.........people give a crap about all the WRONG things......if uncle mo wins thats my saver...its more of a loss. when he loses...now its something worth cashing.....

Shut up already.

[Thunder Gulch]

Some really smarty folks showed up to tell us about it AFTER the race. After trolling the boards and Twitter, I think someone needs to audit the NYRA, because it sure seems as if Toby's Corner took the majority of the money.