Derby Notebook/Earnings (4/17); Soldat sharp in last FL drill

Mike · #1 03-28-2011, 02:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Yes, because the current system keeps worthy horses out of the Derby. Oh wait, it doesn't.

Not sure what to make of that, but felt it might be aimed at my post. Seems the above post suggests all the horses who want in can get in, which does not seem to make sense. Mine That Bird showed that even a horse who should not have been in can pop a great race and win the Derby. Don't ask me how he did it, he never did much since.Perhaps Mine That Bird's over-inflated Graded winnings kept out a horse who might have beaten him that day (maybe not), but sooner or later it seems anyone giving this a bit of thought would realize these Louisiana, Sunland and U.A.E. Derbies out of whack purses are a hindrance to the initial logic in using Graded earnings.

justindew · #2 03-28-2011, 02:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike

Not sure what to make of that, but felt it might be aimed at my post. Seems the above post suggests all the horses who want in can get in, which does not seem to make sense. Mine That Bird showed that even a horse who should not have been in can pop a great race and win the Derby. Don't ask me how he did it, he never did much since.Perhaps Mine That Bird's over-inflated Graded winnings kept out a horse who might have beaten him that day (maybe not), but sooner or later it seems anyone giving this a bit of thought would realize these Louisiana, Sunland and U.A.E. Derbies out of whack purses are a hindrance to the initial logic in using Graded earnings.

Let's be fair. Mine That Bird was Champion Two-Year-Old in Canada. While he was light on Beyer Speed Figures, his resume wasn't without its bright spots.

Mike · #3 03-28-2011, 02:15 PM

Thank for the info,Justin, I could not remeber what Minethatbird's history was leading up to the race. Although we now have a recent example of a horse who did get in, due to,what appears over-inflated purses (I guess more connections should just target these races?), how long will it be before the next? Maybe Mine That Bird was both a beneficiary and a victim of the Graded earnings rule? Did he get a lot of 2nd and 3rd place $$$ in those Canadian races?

I don't want to get bogged down, I had my input, and there could be room for a lot of tinkering to my modest proposal.
Dialed In best be sure to be in the money next week, as he and others will surely be bumped down over the next 2-3 weeks

Me? I just need Astrology to be in those Derby gates, as I have future wagers on him and the factor(including a three entry exacta box with all other three year olds

)

slotdirt · #4 03-28-2011, 02:22 PM

Do they pay out on 17th place in the Derby? If so, that Astrology bet seems like a prescient one.

Mine that Bird got in the field when he was like 28th in graded earnings and there were a whole lot of horses that were injured or had owners who thought discretion was the better part of valor. I say again though, it's fine to bash the graded earnings rule, but it's yet to have kept out a horse from the Derby that actually had half a chance.

Mike · #5 03-28-2011, 02:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Do they pay out on 17th place in the Derby? If so, that Astrology bet seems like a prescient one.

Mine that Bird got in the field when he was like 28th in graded earnings and there were a whole lot of horses that were injured or had owners who thought discretion was the better part of valor. I say again though, it's fine to bash the graded earnings rule, but it's yet to have kept out a horse from the Derby that actually had half a chance.

I'll sell you that Astrology future wager

And thanks for the dropout info on MTB. Seriously, it does explain things some.

Mike · #6 03-28-2011, 02:31 PM

Of course I do have a $100 insurance wager on Astrology to finish in the bottom three

justindew · #7 03-28-2011, 02:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Do they pay out on 17th place in the Derby? If so, that Astrology bet seems like a prescient one.

Mine that Bird got in the field when he was like 28th in graded earnings and there were a whole lot of horses that were injured or had owners who thought discretion was the better part of valor. I say again though, it's fine to bash the graded earnings rule, but it's yet to have kept out a horse from the Derby that actually had half a chance.

Sunday Break.

lemoncrush · #8 03-28-2011, 03:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I say again though, it's fine to bash the graded earnings rule, but it's yet to have kept out a horse from the Derby that actually had half a chance.

Even better, the current system insures that lots of horses with ZERO chance actually get in, which we should all embrace as handicappers.

Handicapping a 20-horse field gets a lot easier when you have auto-tosses like Twice the Appeal and Animal Kingdom getting in.

randallscott35 · #9 03-28-2011, 03:05 PM

Going to take 225+ to get in this year.

tjfla · #10 03-28-2011, 03:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Going to take 225+ to get in this year.

#20 right now is Premier Pegasus at 228,000

Patrick333 · #11 03-28-2011, 03:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Going to take 225+ to get in this year.

I agree. A lot of horses are on the bubble.

slotdirt · #12 03-28-2011, 03:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

Even better, the current system insures that lots of horses with ZERO chance actually get in, which we should all embrace as handicappers.

Handicapping a 20-horse field gets a lot easier when you have auto-tosses like Twice the Appeal and Animal Kingdom getting in.

When you have 20 horses in a field, there isn't a system that could be created that wouldn't have auto-tosses in it. Graded earnings is just as fine as any other goofy scheme.