3/26 (TP): Spiral, Bourbonette (G3's); Rushaway, Hansel, Queen

[somerfrost]

Another lightly raced horse with weak pedigree win another race with significant purse.

[hockey2315]

Look at me! Look at me!

There's a reason there are sticky-ed threads w/ the names of stakes on them. . .

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Another lightly raced horse with weak pedigree win another race with significant purse.

I wouldn't call Animal Kingdom's pedigree weak.

Maybe not ideal for 10f on dirt in North America, but certainly not without substance.

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I wouldn't call Animal Kingdom's pedigree weak.

Maybe not ideal for 10f on dirt in North America, but certainly not without substance.

Yeah this pedigree is far from weak. It's just largely European so it's not like it screams dirt. There's group and graded wins in the female family. His dam's a group 3 winner at 2000 meters. Animal Kingdom's damsire, Acatenango, was a multiple G1SW and beat Theatrical in Europe. Dancing Brave's not a nobody.

Looking forward to more talk about German bloodlines on ATR again at some point, Steve.

[Danzig]

leroidisanimeaux's dam, dissemble...half-sibling to hasili. dalicia, animal kingdoms dam, has several good races at 10-11f. interesting.

[somerfrost]

I should be more specific regarding what I mean by "weak"...I look at breeding from the standpoint of how many CDR's are in first four generations of pedigree. Many horses are excellent runners but not great sires. No horse has won the Derby with fewer than 16 points in his DP since 1950 (Middleground with 12). Animal Kingdom has 8 (DP: 2-0-6-0-0...Blushing Groom (B,C) appears in third generation, Lyphard (C) appears twice in 4th. European horses are included in CDR's so that's not a factor. Only the great Count Fleet has won the Derby with fewer than 12 points, he had but 4 in 1943....Count Fleet was, in my opinion, one of the all time greats. Not saying this alone guarantees Animal Kingdom can't win but the history is certainly against him and that's why I consider his pedigree weak, especially as it translates into Derby success.

[Dahoss]

I'd say the fact he's a turf/synth horse will prevent him from winning the Derby. Not outdated pedigree nonsense.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I'd say the fact he's a turf/synth horse will prevent him from winning the Derby. Not outdated pedigree nonsense.

You might not put any faith in CDR's but that's your opinion, I have a right to mine without the scoffing...it's not nonsense to me.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Many horses are excellent runners but not great sires. No horse has won the Derby with fewer than 16 points in his DP since 1950 (Middleground with 12). Animal Kingdom has 8 (DP: 2-0-6-0-0...Blushing Groom (B,C) appears in third generation, Lyphard (C) appears twice in 4th. European horses are included in CDR's so that's not a factor. Not saying this alone guarantees Animal Kingdom can't win but the history is certainly against him and that's why I consider his pedigree weak, especially as it translates into Derby success.

Firstly, it's dubious to say that the "foreign" element in Animal Kingdom's pedigree is not a factor. While a few Euros might be included, I doubt that as much focus is paid to the happenings on racetracks there than in the States, especially where it concerns assigning Chef-De-Race status.

Acatenango is probably the most successful German sire in history. Plenty of his offspring have performed at the elite international level as well.

Secondly, a lot of CDR assignments are made retrospectively and of dubious merit. It's easy to make all the Derby winners from 1950 onwards have a certain number of profile points (I like how the CD and DI are no longer the gold standard for Derby winners by the way) when you don't actually start assigning CDR status until 1980. A lot of CDRs probably achieved their "status" on the basis of those very same Derby winners. Therefore, horses sired by relatively young sires (such as Leroidesanimaux) are automatically biased against.

Recently, they made the hardly influential sire Lost Code, a CDR. He had a run there in the last few years as the broodmare sire of a few decent sprinters (the best being Fabulous Strike) and for some reason became a CDR. As though they were trying to force Lost Code into being an important sire, they also made his own sire, Codex, a CDR, too. How convenient. Codex sired just 3 crops and died over 25 years ago. Now all of a sudden his descendants are inheriting superior genes?

Based on this laughable maneuvering, I would predict that Animal Kingdom's profile will be soon be bolstered in the near future. Soon, streaking stallion Candy Ride will be a CDR and probably his own sire Candy Stripes along with him. Candy Stripes is also the sire of Leroidesanimaux. So Animal Kingdom has a "sneaky good" profile. Just like Real Quiet and Strike The Gold...

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Soon, streaking stallion Candy Ride will be a CDR and probably his own sire Candy Stripes along with him. Candy Stripes is also the sire of Leroidesanimaux. So Animal Kingdom has a "sneaky good" profile. Just like Real Quiet and Strike The Gold...

Candy Ride was sired by Ride the Rails.

[Merlinsky]

Alan Garcia said "Wherever they want to go with this horse, I want to be there.” He's also riding Soldat isn't he? I assume he meant he wanted to ride the horse long term without locking in a Derby mount commitment, but AK's got the GS earnings to go to the Derby if they want. I'm sure they'll at least consider it. Alan's not the only one with more than one Derby possible at the moment. The inevitable musical jockeys situation is going to commence in a few weeks.

Fingers crossed on Jon Court finally making the Derby. He's on Archarcharch and Supreme Ruler (going in the Sunland Derby 3/27). He's riding for his father-in-law right? Should any of Jinks Fires' horses make the Derby field, I'd say Jon's got it locked in. Even if they don't go, a spot might open up.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Firstly, it's dubious to say that the "foreign" element in Animal Kingdom's pedigree is not a factor. While a few Euros might be included, I doubt that as much focus is paid to the happenings on racetracks there than in the States, especially where it concerns assigning Chef-De-Race status.

Acatenango is probably the most successful German sire in history. Plenty of his offspring have performed at the elite international level as well.

Secondly, a lot of CDR assignments are made retrospectively and of dubious merit. It's easy to make all the Derby winners from 1950 onwards have a certain number of profile points (I like how the CD and DI are no longer the gold standard for Derby winners by the way) when you don't actually start assigning CDR status until 1980. A lot of CDRs probably achieved their "status" on the basis of those very same Derby winners. Therefore, horses sired by relatively young sires (such as Leroidesanimaux) are automatically biased against.

Recently, they made the hardly influential sire Lost Code, a CDR. He had a run there in the last few years as the broodmare sire of a few decent sprinters (the best being Fabulous Strike) and for some reason became a CDR. As though they were trying to force Lost Code into being an important sire, they also made his own sire, Codex, a CDR, too. How convenient. Codex sired just 3 crops and died over 25 years ago. Now all of a sudden his descendants are inheriting superior genes?

Based on this laughable maneuvering, I would predict that Animal Kingdom's profile will be soon be bolstered in the near future. Soon, streaking stallion Candy Ride will be a CDR and probably his own sire Candy Stripes along with him. Candy Stripes is also the sire of Leroidesanimaux. So Animal Kingdom has a "sneaky good" profile. Just like Real Quiet and Strike The Gold...

From Dr Roman's site:
Codex went to stud at Tartan Farm in Ocala but died tragically after siring just three crops. However, from only 106 foals he got 10 stakes winners (9%) including Grade 1 winners Lost Code, Badger Land (which went on to become one of South Africa's premier sires, leading the general sire list twice) and Coup de Fusil. In addition, his runners achieved an extraordinary Average-Earnings-Index (AEI) of 3.28, a figure superior to that of A.P. Indy or Storm Cat and better than any sire among the current North American leaders in 2010.

Lost Code, out of Smarter By the Day, by Smarten, was among the leading runners of his generation, winning fifteen times in 27 starts over three years with earnings in excess of two million dollars. He won the Grade 1 Arlington Classic at three and the Grade 1 Oaklawn Handicap at four, as well as seven other graded stakes. He stood first at Vinery in Kentucky and then at Legacy farm in Virginia where he died prematurely at age 17 in 2001. During his relatively short stud career he sired at least 53 stakes winners (9% from foals) including the multiple Grade 1-winning, top class sprinting mare, Kalookan Queen. His daughters have produced champion and Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) winner Squirtle Squirt, Japanese champion miler Hat Trick, Grade 1-winning sprinter Fabulous Strike, Grade 1 sprint winner and Arkansas Derby (G2) winner Gayego, multiple graded stakes-winning sprinter Rite Moment and multiple graded stakes-winning sprinter/miler Desert Code. Lost Code ranked among the top 100 leading North American broodmare sires every year between 2001 and 2009

The AWD of North American open stakes races won by Lost Code is 8.91 furlongs while that for Codex is 9.17 furlongs. Below is a summary displaying their AWDs as a runner, a sire and as a broodmare sire of North American open stakes winners.
AWD (furlongs)
Runner Sire Broodmare Sire
Codex 9.17 8.95 8.50
Lost Code 8.91 7.06 6.37

Despite the similarity of their AWD on the track, the difference in their distance influence on succeeding generations is striking. This is an excellent illustration of a basic premise of Dosage methodology, first articulated by Varola. He noted that the characteristics transmitted by chefs-de-race at stud are not necessarily those they expressed on the track themselves. This concept is extremely important when trying to observe prepotence for aptitudinal type.

Recently, when Unbridled was named a chef-de-race, we introduced a new metric to help identify prepotence for type. The intention was to determine whether the winning distance profile of an individual sire's runners differs significantly from an opportunistic pattern that merely reflects the average distance distribution for the runners of all sires. Large deviations from the average suggest a greater predictability of aptitudinal type transmission, a key component of prepotence. The following graphics clearly show that both Codex and Lost Code have profiles greatly skewed from the average.

We can verify the discrepancy between Lost Code's notional type contribution (i.e., without invoking a prepotent influence of his own) and the real-world performance of his close up descendants through an examination of Dosage figures. The data derived from 69 North American open stakes races in which Lost Code is either the sire or broodmare sire reveal an AWD of 6.76 furlongs with an average Dosage Profile (DP) of 4.80-3.78-6.00-0.19-0.59, equivalent to an average Dosage Index (DI) of 3.28 and an average Center of Distribution (CD) of 0.74. Based on the results of over 25,000 races since 1983, the predicted average DI and CD for North American open stakes winners at 6.76 furlongs are 4.79 and 0.98, respectively. Accordingly, Lost Code's contribution to succeeding generations currently fails to capture the the additional speed he predictably transmits. His present contribution to the DP of his foals is 0-2-3-0-1 (equivalent to DI 1.40 and CD 0.00) which hardly reflects his attributes as a consistent sire and broodmare sire of high class sprinters and sprinter/milers. The objective, then, is to bring the figures for descendants of Lost Code back in line with those of the general population having similar performance characteristics.

By assigning Lost Code as a split Brilliant/Intermediate chef-de-race and Codex as a split Intermediate/Classic chef-de-race, Lost Code's revised figures are average DP 11.06-13.17-9.13-0.72-0.59, average DI 5.07 and average CD 0.96, close to the predicted figures. His revised contribution to the DP of his descendants is now 8-14-7-0-1 (equivalent to DI 5.67 and CD 0.93) as a sire and 4-7-3-0-0 (equivalent to DI 8.33 and CD 1.07) as a broodmare sire. These are more realistic and they parallel the decrease in the AWD for Lost Code between his first- and second-generation influence.

Similarly, Codex's figures change from average DP 3.64-3.32-4.36-0.50-1.89, average DI 2.25 and average CD 0.31 to average DP 3.64-10.46-11.50-0.50-1.89, average DI 2.63 and average CD 0.47. The predicted figures are average DI 2.35 and average CD 0.54, reasonably close to the new figures. Additionally, the figures for Badger Land as a sire and broodmare sire change from average DP 2.95-4.55-6.41-1.00-0.91, average DI 2.03 and average CD 0.35 to average DP 2.95-10.55-12.41-1.00-0.91, average DI 2.46 and average CD 0.47. The predicted figures at his AWD of 8.99 furlongs in North America are average DI 2.20 and average CD 0.51, confirming the new figures are a significant improvement.

Having brought the figures for Codex and his sons satisfactorily in line with those for the breed at large, we are confident in assigning Codex to the Intermediate/Classic categories and Lost Code to the Brilliant/Intermediate categories as the 212th and 213th chefs-de-race.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Firstly, it's dubious to say that the "foreign" element in Animal Kingdom's pedigree is not a factor. While a few Euros might be included, I doubt that as much focus is paid to the happenings on racetracks there than in the States, especially where it concerns assigning Chef-De-Race status.

Acatenango is probably the most successful German sire in history. Plenty of his offspring have performed at the elite international level as well.

Secondly, a lot of CDR assignments are made retrospectively and of dubious merit. It's easy to make all the Derby winners from 1950 onwards have a certain number of profile points (I like how the CD and DI are no longer the gold standard for Derby winners by the way) when you don't actually start assigning CDR status until 1980. A lot of CDRs probably achieved their "status" on the basis of those very same Derby winners. Therefore, horses sired by relatively young sires (such as Leroidesanimaux) are automatically biased against.

Recently, they made the hardly influential sire Lost Code, a CDR. He had a run there in the last few years as the broodmare sire of a few decent sprinters (the best being Fabulous Strike) and for some reason became a CDR. As though they were trying to force Lost Code into being an important sire, they also made his own sire, Codex, a CDR, too. How convenient. Codex sired just 3 crops and died over 25 years ago. Now all of a sudden his descendants are inheriting superior genes?

Based on this laughable maneuvering, I would predict that Animal Kingdom's profile will be soon be bolstered in the near future. Soon, streaking stallion Candy Ride will be a CDR and probably his own sire Candy Stripes along with him. Candy Stripes is also the sire of Leroidesanimaux. So Animal Kingdom has a "sneaky good" profile. Just like Real Quiet and Strike The Gold...

Again, from the same site, an alphabetical listing of all current CDR's. I think you'll agree that there is not evidence of it being weighted toward American racing:Abernant (B) Dark Ronald (P) MILL REEF (C/S) ROYAL ACADEMY (B/I)
Ack Ack (I/C) Discovery (S) Mossborough (C) Royal Charger (B)
Admiral Drake (P) Djebel (I) Mr. Prospector (B/C) Run the Gantlet (P)
Alcantara II (P) Donatello II (P) My Babu (B) Sadler's Wells (C/S)
Alibhai (C) Double Jay (B) Nashua (I/C) Sardanapale (P)
Alizier (P) Dr. Fager (I) Nasrullah (B) Sea-Bird (S)
Alycidon (P) Eight Thirty (I) Native Dancer (I/C) Seattle Slew (B/C)
Alydar (C) Ela-Mana-Mou (P) Navarro (C) Secretariat (I/C)
A.P. INDY (I/C) Equipoise (I/C) Nearco (B/C) Sharpen Up (B/C)
Apalachee (B) Exclusive Native (C) Never Bend (B/I) Shirley Heights (C/P)
Asterus (S) Fair Play (S/P) Never Say Die (C) Sicambre (C)
Aureole (C) Fair Trial (B) Nijinsky II (C/S) Sideral (C)
Bachelor's Double (S) Fairway (B) Niniski (C/P) Sir Cosmo (B)
Bahram (C) Fappiano (I/C) NoDOUBLE (C/P) Sir Gallahad III (C)
Baldski (B/I) Forli (C) Noholme II (B/C) Sir Gaylord (I/C)
Ballymoss (S) Foxbridge (P) Northern Dancer (B/C) Sir Ivor (I/C)
Bayardo (P) Full Sail (I) Nureyev (C) SMART STRIKE (I/C)
Ben Brush (I) Gainsborough (C) Oleander (S) Solario (P)
Best Turn (C) Gallant Man (B/I) Olympia (B) Son-In-Law (P)
Big Game (I) GIANT'S CAUSEWAY (C) Orby (B) Speak John (B/I)
Black Toney (B/I) Graustark (C/S) Ortello (P) Spearmint (P)
Blandford (C) Grey Dawn II (B/I) Panorama (B) Spy Song (B)
Blenheim II (C/S) Grey Sovereign (B) Persian Gulf (C) Stage Door Johnny (S/P)
Blue Larkspur (C) Gundomar (C) Peter Pan (B) Star Kingdom (I/C)
Blushing Groom (B/C) Habitat (B) Petition (I) Star Shoot (I)
Bois Roussel (S) Hail To Reason (C) Phalaris (B) Sunny Boy (P)
Bold Bidder (I/C) Halo (B/C) Pharis II (B) Sunstar (S)
Bold RuCKUS (I/C) Havresac II (I) Pharos (I) Sweep (I)
Bold Ruler (B/I) Heliopolis (B) Pia Star (S) Swynford (C)
Brantome (C) Herbager (C/S) Pilate (C) T.V. Lark (I)
British Empire (B) High Top (C) PLEASANT COLONY (i) Tantieme (S)
Broad Brush (I/C) His Majesty (C) Polynesian (I) Teddy (S)
Broomstick (I) Hoist The Flag (B/I) Pompey (B) The Tetrarch (I)
Bruleur (P) Hurry On (P) Precipitation (P) Ticino (C/S)
BuckAROO (B/i) Hyperion (B/C) Pretense (C) Tom Fool (I/C)
Buckpasser (C) Icecapade (B/C) Prince Bio (C) Tom Rolfe (C/P)
Bull Dog (B) Indian Ridge (I) Prince Chevalier (C) Tourbillon (C/P)
Bull Lea (C) In Reality (B/C) Prince John (C) Tracery (C)
Busted (S) Intentionally (B/I) Princequillo (I/S) Traghetto (I)
Caro (I/C) In the Wings (C/S) Prince Rose (C) Tudor Minstrel (B)
CARSON CITY (b/i) Key to the Mint (B/C) Promised Land (C) Turn-to (B/I)
Chateau Bouscaut (P) Khaled (I) Rabelais (P) Ultimus (B)
Chaucer (S) King Salmon (I) RaINBOW QUEST (c/S) unbridled (B/I)
CHIEF'S CROWN (I/S) KingMAMBO (C/S) Raise A Native (B) Vaguely Noble (C/P)
Cicero (B) King's Bishop (B/I) Reliance II (S/P) Vandale (P)
Clarissimus (C) La Farina (P) Relko (S) Vatellor (P)
CoDEX (I/C) Le Fabuleux (P) Reviewer (B/C) Vatout (S)
Colorado (I) LOST CODE (B/I) Ribot (C/P) Vieux Manoir (C)
Congreve (I) Luthier (C) Right Royal (S) War Admiral (C)
Count Fleet (C) Lyphard (C) Riverman (I/C) What A Pleasure (B)
Court Martial (B) Mahmoud (I/C) Roberto (C) Wild Risk (P)
Creme dela Creme (C/S) Man O' War (S) Rock Sand (C/S) Worden (S)
Crepello (P) Massine (P) Roman (B/I)
Damascus (I/C) Midstream (C) Rough'n Tumble (B/C)
Danzig (I/C) Mieuxce (P) Round Table (S)