3/19 (OP): Rebel S. (G2), Azeri (G3)

[justindew]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

We do?

Let me ask you this: When you predicted a 100 for The Factor, was that based on the day's times, or Havre de Grace's last three Beyers and her final time today vs. The Factor's? Tell the truth.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by justindew

Let me ask you this: When you predicted a 100 for The Factor, was that based on the day's times, or Havre de Grace's last three Beyers and her final time today vs. The Factor's? Tell the truth.

The pace in the 4th race was too fast for those type of horses.

If you use a single variant and ignore the pace in the 4th race ... you could have both The Factor and Havre De Grace's race a few points faster.

Ultimately, the figure will depend on what they do with the 4th race.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The pace in the 4th race was too fast for those type of horses.

If you use a single variant and ignore the pace in the 4th race ... you could have both The Factor and Havre De Grace's race a few points faster.

Ultimately, the figure will depend on what they do with the 4th race.

The magical split/single variant issue. Solves many a Beyer conundrum.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by justindew

The magical split/single variant issue. Solves many a Beyer conundrum.

In terms of splitting variant's and cutting races loose ... the Thoro-Graph's do it far more than anyone ... Ragozin's almost never do it ... Beyer's are a lot closer to Ragozin than TG's in that regard.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by justindew

The magical split/single variant issue. Solves many a Beyer conundrum.

If they use a single variant - you're looking at a 104-to-107 range for The Factor ... if you cut race #4 loose - you're looking at a 99-to-101 range for The Factor IMO.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

If they use a single variant - you're looking at a 104-to-107 range for The Factor ... if you cut race #4 loose - you're looking at a 99-to-101 range for The Factor IMO.

....and if they do what they normally do, which is assign Beyers based on recent other Beyers, lengths beaten today, etc etc, The Factor will get a 99 or 100. Just look at Havre de Grace and Caleb's Posse.

[hockey2315]

105 for Havre de Grace
103 for The Factor