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  #1  
Old 03-17-2011, 06:59 PM
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The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
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Sunland has a prep with 800K in Graded Earnings - and the field is shaping up - so far - to be much weaker than that N1X at GP on Saturday.
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Old 03-17-2011, 08:09 PM
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randallscott35 randallscott35 is offline
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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS View Post
Sunland has a prep with 800K in Graded Earnings - and the field is shaping up - so far - to be much weaker than that N1X at GP on Saturday.
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  #3  
Old 03-18-2011, 12:45 AM
Alan07 Alan07 is offline
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What a waste. Should be used to actually get horses in the entry box instead.
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Old 03-18-2011, 05:59 AM
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Originally Posted by Alan07 View Post
What a waste. Should be used to actually get horses in the gate instead.
Ftfy The disturbing NY trend is of a couple scratches to already short fields in graded races. Handicappers will still play after spending time but may not if the original field was 4-5 to begin with.
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Old 03-18-2011, 06:59 AM
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That is cool. If Genting is bringing this kind of boost, I can really get excited about their running of casino operations at Aqueduct.
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  #6  
Old 03-18-2011, 08:52 AM
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Originally Posted by jms62 View Post
Ftfy The disturbing NY trend is of a couple scratches to already short fields in graded races. Handicappers will still play after spending time but may not if the original field was 4-5 to begin with.
That merits asking the question, "What constitutes a trend"? (And a disturbing trend at that...) Let's go back a full calendar year and look at the entries and scratches in NY's graded stakes. There may be a few more 5 horse fields entered and running than you hope for, (a total of 9 of 96 actually), but there isn't much by way of fact the last 13 months to support the 'disturbing trend' moniker.

Red represents races that scratched down to less than 5 runners. There were 3.. and notably, 2 were 2 year old races (Special & Hopeful). There were another 3 races that scratched to 5 horses.. 2 of those 2 year old events (Nashua & Demoiselle) The average number of horses entered into NY stakes is 8 and the average number of scratches is 1.

Stake: Entered (Scratched)

Toboggan 5 (0)
Gotham 10 (0)
Cicada 9 (0)
Exselsior 6 (1)
Bay Shore 7 (1)
Carter 6 (0)
Wood 6 (0)
Comely 8 (0)
Distaff 6 (1)
Withers 6 (1)
Fort Marcy 10 (2)
Beauguay 8 (0)
Dwyer 7 (0)
Shuvee 5 (0)
Sheepshead Bay 8 (1)
Vagrancy 7 (1)
Sands Point 8 (1)
Met Mile 8 (0)
Hill Prince 8 (5) OFF THE TURF
Brooklyn 8 (0)
Woody Stephens 5 (0)
True North 10 (2)
Acorn 13 (1)
Manhattan 11 (0)
Belmont 12 (0)
Phipps 5 (0)
New York 7 (2)*
Mother Goose 5 (0)
Suburban 7 (0)
Prioress 5 (0)
Bed of Roses 8 (0)
Man O'War 8 (0)
Jaipur 7 (0)
Schylerville 7 (1)
CCAO 8 (2)
Sanford 8 (0)
Lake George 15 (3)
Jim Dandy 9 (1)
Diana 7 (0)
Fourstardave 12 (5)
Ruffian 6 (0)
Amsterdam 10 (1)
Test 10 (1)
Whitney 6 (0)
Hon. Miss 5 (0)
Vanderbilt 7 (0)
Hall of Fame 7 (1)
Sword Dancer 10 (1)
ADK 10 (0)
Special 6 (2)
Alabama 6 (0)
Lake Placid 6 (3) OFF THE TURF
Baruch 8 (1)
Victory Ride 8 (1)
Ballston Spa 10 (0)
King's Bishop 8 (0)
Travers 11 (0)
Personal Ensign 5 (0)
With Anticipation 12 (2)
Woodward 7 (0)
Forego 11 (2)
Saranac 6 (0)
Glens Falls 10 (2)
Hopeful 7 (3)
Bowling Green 11 (4)
Garden City 8 (1)
Noble Damsel 8 (0)
Gallant Bloom 9 (1)
Beldame 5 (0)
Vosburgh 9 (0)
Hirsch 11 (2)
Flower Bowl 8 (1)
JCGC 8 (1)
Pilgrim 9 (2)
Miss Grillo 14 (3)
Kelso 8 (1)
Jamaica 11 (0)
Champagne 7 (1)
Frizette 9 (1)
Pebbles 10 (2)
Athenia 12 (3)
Knickerbocker 13 (6) Yielding
Bold Ruler 8 (0)
Turnback the Alarm 9 (1)
Tempted 5 (0)
Nashua 6 (1)*
Red Smith 9 (2)
Long Island 7 (1)
Fall Highweight 9 (1)
Top Flight 7 (1)
Remsen 7 (2)
Demoiselle 6 (1)*
Cigar 9 (0)
Gazelle 8 (1)
Toboggan 8 (3)
Gotham 9 (2)
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Last edited by Kasept : 03-18-2011 at 10:04 AM.
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  #7  
Old 03-18-2011, 09:18 AM
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Hill Prince was rained off the turf, so nothing abnormal about that one
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  #8  
Old 03-18-2011, 09:28 AM
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Still seeing an abundance of stakes races with 6-8 horses.

That sucks. No matter how you try to spin it.
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  #9  
Old 03-18-2011, 10:06 AM
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Originally Posted by OTM Al View Post
Hill Prince was rained off the turf, so nothing abnormal about that one
Thx Al.. I should have gone back to look at it, but obviously going through the nearly 100 charts was enough of an exersize.
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A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
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The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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  #10  
Old 03-18-2011, 11:31 AM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
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Originally Posted by OTM Al View Post
Hill Prince was rained off the turf, so nothing abnormal about that one
The Hill Prince was not off-the-turf in 2010. It marked the day that Nordic Truce was exposed as a mediocrity.
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  #11  
Old 03-18-2011, 10:53 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
That merits asking the question, "What constitutes a trend"? (And a disturbing trend at that...) Let's go back a full calendar year and look at the entries and scratches in NY's graded stakes. There may be a few more 5 horse fields entered and running than you hope for, (a total of 9 of 96 actually), but there isn't much by way of fact the last 13 months to support the 'disturbing trend' moniker.

Red represents races that scratched down to less than 5 runners. There were 3.. and notably, 2 were 2 year old races (Special & Hopeful). There were another 3 races that scratched to 5 horses.. 2 of those 2 year old events (Nashua & Demoiselle) The average number of horses entered into NY stakes is 8 and the average number of scratches is 1.

Stake: Entered (Scratched)

Toboggan 5 (0)
Gotham 10 (0)
Cicada 9 (0)
Exselsior 6 (1)
Bay Shore 7 (1)
Carter 6 (0)
Wood 6 (0)

Comely 8 (0)
Distaff 6 (1)
Withers 6 (1)

Fort Marcy 10 (2)
Beauguay 8 (0)
Dwyer 7 (0)
Shuvee 5 (0)
Sheepshead Bay 8 (1)
Vagrancy 7 (1)
Sands Point 8 (1)
Met Mile 8 (0)
Hill Prince 8 (5) OFF THE TURF
Brooklyn 8 (0)
Woody Stephens 5 (0)
True North 10 (2)
Acorn 13 (1)
Manhattan 11 (0)
Belmont 12 (0)
Phipps 5 (0)[i]
New York 7 (2)[B
]Mother Goose 5 (0)

Suburban 7 (0)
Prioress 5 (0)
Bed of Roses 8 (0)
Man O'War 8 (0)
Jaipur 7 (0)
Schylerville 7 (1)
CCAO 8 (2)

Sanford 8 (0)
Lake George 15 (3)
Jim Dandy 9 (1)
Diana 7 (0)
Fourstardave 12 (5)
Ruffian 6 (0)
Amsterdam 10 (1)
Test 10 (1)
Whitney 6 (0)
Hon. Miss 5 (0)
Vanderbilt 7 (0)
Hall of Fame 7 (1)
Sword Dancer 10 (1)
ADK 10 (0)
Special 6 (2)
Alabama 6 (0)
Lake Placid 6 (3) OFF THE TURF
Baruch 8 (1)
Victory Ride 8 (1)
Ballston Spa 10 (0)
King's Bishop 8 (0)
Travers 11 (0)
Personal Ensign 5 (0)
With Anticipation 12 (2)
Woodward 7 (0)
Forego 11 (2)
Saranac 6 (0)
Glens Falls 10 (2)
Hopeful 7 (3)
Bowling Green 11 (4)
Garden City 8 (1)
Noble Damsel 8 (0)
Gallant Bloom 9 (1)
Beldame 5 (0)
Vosburgh 9 (0)
Hirsch 11 (2)
Flower Bowl 8 (1)
JCGC 8 (1)
Pilgrim 9 (2)
Miss Grillo 14 (3)
Kelso 8 (1)
Jamaica 11 (0)
Champagne 7 (1)
Frizette 9 (1)
Pebbles 10 (2)
Athenia 12 (3)
Knickerbocker 13 (6) Yielding
Bold Ruler 8 (0)
Turnback the Alarm 9 (1)
Tempted 5 (0)
Nashua 6 (1)
Red Smith 9 (2)
Long Island 7 (1)
Fall Highweight 9 (1)
Top Flight 7 (1)
Remsen 7 (2)
Cigar 9 (0)
Gazelle 8 (1)
Toboggan 8 (3)
Gotham 9 (2)
The last 10 Graded stakes had an 18% scratch rate and for all 96 the scratch rate was 16%. How does that compare vs the Industry standard in graded stakes? It seems high to me.

Overall 20 of 96 races went to post with 5 or less horses which is 21%. Frankly I think a field of 6 is short and we had 32 of 96 or 33%. Do you think that these short races had a negative affect on handle? I'm the customer and you are a company man basically telling me to suck it up.
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  #12  
Old 03-18-2011, 10:57 AM
freddymo freddymo is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jms62 View Post
The last 10 Graded stakes had an 18% scratch rate and for all 96 the scratch rate was 16%. How does that compare vs the Industry standard in graded stakes? It seems high to me.

Overall 20 of 96 races went to post with 5 or less horses which is 21%. Frankly I think a field of 6 is short and we had 32 of 96 or 33%. Do you think that these short races had a negative affect on handle? I'm the customer and you are a company man basically telling me to suck it up.
Actual he is saying until they clip 30% of the stakes this is what you should expect.

Graded turf events should be clipped by 50%
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  #13  
Old 03-18-2011, 11:08 AM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jms62 View Post
The last 10 Graded stakes had an 18% scratch rate and for all 96 the scratch rate was 16%. How does that compare vs the Industry standard in graded stakes? It seems high to me.

Overall 20 of 96 races went to post with 5 or less horses which is 21%. Frankly I think a field of 6 is short and we had 32 of 96 or 33%. Do you think that these short races had a negative affect on handle? I'm the customer and you are a company man basically telling me to suck it up.
Excuse me? I'm not telling you to do anything. I simply was curious as to the actual specifics of what was suggested without backup as a 'trend'. I merely pulled up the facts for what could be a more fair evaluation of the realities as opposed to the speculation or presumption.
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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