Likelihood of winning the Derby

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I assumed wrong from your first line and didn't read the whole thing.

A lot of longshots in the Derby are gigantic overlays - some call it the Giacomo factor or whatever.

It would take a magical sudden form reversal for something included in "the rest" to look like contenders - and with the way prep races are being more and more spaced ... they only have a shot or two to get the graded earnings.

A horse like Bind is not being pointed - he might be one of the two or three most talented of them all.

"magical" form reversals and overlooked inexperienced up-and-comers have happened often enough in the past to have a greater impact on the Derby than your line would suggest. Here are a few horses that were NOT separate entries in Pool 2 in previous years:

2010
Ice Box
Paddy O'Prado
MakeMusicforMe
Stately Victor
Devil May Care
Awesome Act

2009
Mine That Bird
Musket Man
SummerBird
Regal Ransom

2008
Big Brown
Eight Belles

2007
Sedgefield
Tiago

2006
Steppenwolfer
Jazil (DH)
Sweetnorthernsaint
Deputy Glitters
Sharp Humor

2005
Closing Argument
Buzzard's Bay
Bellamy Road
Andromeda's Hero
Flower Alley

2004
none of note

2003
Buddy Gil
Outta Here
Ten Most Wanted

2002
War Emblem
Proud Citizen
Medaglia d'Oro

2001
none of note

2000
Aptitude
Impeachment
Trippi
Commendable

In addition to the 3 Derby winners in bold, Closing Argument barely missed in 2005. Perhaps the best year for "All Others" from Pool 2 was 2002, when it comprised 3/4 of the Superfecta. The exacta in 2008 wasn't a bad showing either.

I think there is a general tendency to underestimate the likelihood of "All Others" horses' chances. Sometimes it's "magical" (eg, Mine That Bird) and other times it's late development (eg, Big Brown).

Whatever the reason, somewhere in the 364 horses nominated this year, there are probably still a few more surprises waiting to join the list.

--Dunbar