Best opening 8f's run in the Ky Derby

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Victory Gallop ran - what would translate to a 78 Beyer for 6fs and a 107 Beyer for 8fs.

He was a deep closer like Street Sense - he had gigantic moves on the far turn and often the momentum might or might not carry him home.

Indian Charlie ran a killer race - he outsprinted horses like Favorite Trick and Artax - put Old Trieste away easily after about 7 furlongs - and Midnight Lute's sire jumped on top of him before he could ever catch a breather. Very impressive to still finish 3rd - after a 3w, 3w, 115 Beyer for a mile.

I can appreciate the efforts of horses that do the dirty work up front like IC but I was more interested in the first call moss pace figure of VG. Is the 78 beyer for 6f the first call pace figure ? What I'm getting at is that not all on the list of winners who had low first call pace figures had poor efforts when they ran back, although four were off the board.(I think)


I noticed the only derby/preakness winner over the span who didn't have the best 8f sheet # was Funny Cide. Poor guy just eludes recognition.

I forgot War Emblem as well.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

What I'm getting at is that not all on the list of winners who had low first call pace figures had poor efforts when they ran back, although four were off the board.

I don't have Victory Gallop's first call Moss pace number - because he didn't win - but it would be in the high 30's to low 40's.

I hear what you're saying ... however ... the 11 Derby winners that ran a first call Moss Pace figure of 58 or higher accounted for 7 horses who won the Preakness next time out.

Of the four who failed to win the Preakness next time out ...

Go For Gin was 2nd beaten less than a length.

Thunder Gulch was also beaten less than a length

Barbaro broke down and Super Saver didn't do crap - but remember - he didn't beat a great Derby field. Ice Box was 2nd.

Basically - take Barbaro out - and the record is 7 wins out of 10 - with 2 near misses.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I don't have Victory Gallop's first call Moss pace number - because he didn't win - but it would be in the high 30's to low 40's.

I hear what you're saying ... however ... the 11 Derby winners that ran a first call Moss Pace figure of 58 or higher accounted for 7 horses who won the Preakness next time out.

I hand picked VG because horses with his style are the exception to the rule (the rule being first call MPF >58) and although he didn't win the derby, in terms of lengths beaten he came closer than any single winner of a TC race to take all three legs since '78, and closer than many who have won 2 of the 3 legs.

I would guess the projected first call MPF for Unbridled would have been below 58 and he came back to run a good yet unsuccessful 2nd to his main rival, very similar to VG when both were forced to be closer to the early pace which took away from their closing punch.

The only derby/preakness winner I can recall (since Affirmed) whose likely derby MPF was below 58 had to be Pleasant Colony. Perhaps Alysheba, I'm not sure how far back he was early on.

One other thought. If Bellamy Road ran an extremely underrated race Closing Argument should be included. (I hope Jon White doesn't read this before he goes on air.)

[Port Conway Lane]

Here are the horses who've won the KY Derby with a 1st call Moss Pace figure of 57 or lower since Beyers were first published in 1991....

16: Mine That Bird
34: Street Sense
35: Grindstone
44: Fusaichi Pegasus
45: Monarchos
45: Strike The Gold
48: Sea Hero
53: Lil E Tee
54: Giacomo

Of those nine winners - none of them repeated in the Preakness or Belmont.

The scariest fact about this list is that Giacomo was the most productive runner after the Belmont.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

The scariest fact about this list is that Giacomo was the most productive runner after the Belmont.

You would say that Giacomo was more productive than Street Sense? Giacomo had his doors blown off in the Preakness and Belmont and didn't win another race until the '06 San Diego Handicap. At least Street Sense won the Jim Dandy and Travers, albeit against very soft competition. I would say Street Sense was more productive.

I would also say that Strike the Gold was more productive despite only winning another three races and one of them being an allowance. He did win the PImlico Special and Nassau County Handicap in consecutive starts in 1992 and finished 2nd in the Jockey Club Gold Cup the same year, just ahead of subsequent BC Classic winner A.P. Indy.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

You would say that Giacomo was more productive than Street Sense? Giacomo had his doors blown off in the Preakness and Belmont and didn't win another race until the '06 San Diego Handicap. At least Street Sense won the Jim Dandy and Travers, albeit against very soft competition. I would say Street Sense was more productive.

I would also say that Strike the Gold was more productive despite only winning another three races and one of them being an allowance. He did win the PImlico Special and Nassau County Handicap in consecutive starts in 1992 and finished 2nd in the Jockey Club Gold Cup the same year, just ahead of subsequent BC Classic winner A.P. Indy.

I'll take that back about SS,I didn't recall those spa victories. I guess all I remembered was both horses finished 4th in the BCC. Strike the Gold's wins trump Giocomo's grade 3. I was too lazy to look it up. I knew I could count on someone to jog my memory.

[Indian Charlie]

Fupeg also won that very fast mile stakes, I think it was the Jerome.