Hypothetical Derby Trainer Prop Bet

justindew · #1 03-08-2011, 07:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You're probably right.

He seems hopeless to me but I guess 50:1 is fair.

Backtalk was 20-1 last year. You guys are not seeing this as clearly as you see most things.

blackthroatedwind · #2 03-08-2011, 08:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

Backtalk was 20-1 last year. You guys are not seeing this as clearly as you see most things.

No, actually it's you that has no idea what he's talking about.

justindew · #3 03-08-2011, 09:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

No, actually it's you that has no idea what he's talking about.

So you are saying that 5/2 represents the actual odds that should be offered on Pletcher to win the Derby this year?

The Indomitable DrugS · #4 03-08-2011, 10:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

So you are saying that 5/2 represents the actual odds that should be offered on Pletcher to win the Derby this year?

It best represents the odds in which I'd have no interest taking either side on - in an exchange.

blackthroatedwind · #5 03-08-2011, 03:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

So you are saying that 5/2 represents the actual odds that should be offered on Pletcher to win the Derby this year?

Pretty much.

As DrugS said, it's the price I have no interest in betting.

If I could have booked Backtalk at 20:1, or even 30:1, it was free money. I bet he was offered MUCH higher on exchanges with nobody biting. That is the Giacomo Factor.