2/18-20 (CD): Kentucky Derby Future Wager (Pool 1)

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by gamblin4ever

If you wager on these future pools, the value could be Anthony's Cross, Astrology, Machen, and/or Soldat.

A. Cross = if he runs very well 1st or 2nd in the SA Derby
Astrology = if he runs as good as he has when he comes back.
Machen = if he don't run that good this w/e, but stays on the trail and runs
good later on.
Soldat = if he runs very well @ FOY.

I expect the odds to go down the closer we get to the Derby if they run good
later on.

I wouldn't touch any of these at 40-1 or less. I'd need 100-1 on Astrology.

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I wouldn't touch any of these at 40-1 or less. I'd need 100-1 on Astrology.

I think the ALL OTHERS pool would look a lot better if the Southwest ran on Saturday instead of Monday. At least that way, you could see if someone like Elite Alex, Arch Arch Arch or Alternation has any kind of potential.

Regardless, if I wanted to throw $20 down on the FIELD at probable odds of 2-1, I would just pick up a form and bet a race that's going off in 5 minutes, rather than 85 days from now.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I wouldn't touch any of these at 40-1 or less. I'd need 100-1 on Astrology.

I would take him over Anthonys Cross.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Like the 2 War Front horses. Won't play this bet though. Didn't like either winner of the last 2 Derbies. So, why play this?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

Like the 2 War Front horses. Won't play this bet though. Didn't like either winner of the last 2 Derbies. So, why play this?

Same reason you'd make any bet. Because you think you have an edge. If missing twice means no edge, I'd be in big trouble.


--Dunbar

[johnny pinwheel]

these things are so ridiculous.....i guess i could put a few bucks on anthonys cross at 65-1. but who in their right mind would bet 1-1 or 3-1 in a futures pool......practically 3 months in advance???? if recent history is any indication you should get 3-1 that pletchers horse even makes it. i seriously don't see how these things survive...its got to be the hype.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

these things are so ridiculous.....i guess i could put a few bucks on anthonys cross at 65-1. but who in their right mind would bet 1-1 or 3-1 in a futures pool......practically 3 months in advance???? if recent history is any indication you should get 3-1 that pletchers horse even makes it. i seriously don't see how these things survive...its got to be the hype.

It's a bet like any other horse bet. You have info, and you look at the info to see if there's a bet that is an overlay. It has the same takeout as any other Churchill bet.

With any horse bet, in addition to the track take you're up against inside information. I don't know if the amount of inside info is greater with the Future Wager or not. If you think it is greater, then that's one good reason to stay away from the future wager. Otherwise, it's a bet like any other bet.* I happen to think it has offered some monster edges in the past.

--Dunbar

* But where else do you get people betting on horses when they could have waited a few hours to make the same bet, but could have watched the horse actually run a race in the meantime?! I like betting against that kind of bettor.

[knickslions2]

After todays Risen Star some of these will really change. This kind of bet is a true gamble. Payoffs can be good. No way I would ever bet anyone under 10-1. To Honor and Serve has some appeal to me at 17-1. This may even creep up more after the Risen Star today. I usually just bet $20-25 on these type of wagers.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

It's a bet like any other horse bet. You have info, and you look at the info to see if there's a bet that is an overlay. It has the same takeout as any other Churchill bet.

With any horse bet, in addition to the track take you're up against inside information. I don't know if the amount of inside info is greater with the Future Wager or not. If you think it is greater, then that's one good reason to stay away from the future wager. Otherwise, it's a bet like any other bet.* I happen to think it has offered some monster edges in the past.

--Dunbar

* But where else do you get people betting on horses when they could have waited a few hours to make the same bet, but could have watched the horse actually run a race in the meantime?! I like betting against that kind of bettor.

yeah, you make a point. but to me betting on some horse 3 months ahead of time at 3-1 when hes probably going to be not much lower than that anyway(if he even runs). same with the field at 1-1............really 1-1 , whats the objective?....throw your money on the floor or risk it for 3 months at even money or do people just want to say "i cashed in the future pool". thats where the money is so my question is "who bets that?" frankly if you are betting anything under 30-1, you are nuts. a friend of mine loved giacomo....he bet him in the futures............the horse started losing and paid more on derby day.....3 months later and live....yeah, thats a great bet....

[HaloWishingwell]

I like to look for prices. Too many things can go wrong either on the track or health wise this early to take short prices. Second I like to look for a horse who will not run this week. They tend to float up in price or hold steady while those who impress on the track during the pool get overbet. Thirdly I will only bet a horse who ran during the pool if they didnt perform up to par and the price goes up high enough to bet them. I used all three last year on Super Saver on two of the pools including the last pool when his second to Line Of David was frowned upon. So far this week I'm looking at Soldat and Stay Thirsty. I have others in mind but since they are racing this week, judgement on them is on hold.

I would put $1 on Gourmet Dinner at 1000/1

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

I would put $1 on Gourmet Dinner at 1000/1

He's looking more like Chik-fil-A.

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

He's looking more like Chik-fil-A.

That's high grade fast food in some parts. And lets face it these horses ain't eatin' good. All it takes is the right chemist, trainer change, jockey switch. It's not like he got destroyed and they're all in love with the winner.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Fly Delta!

[iamthelurker]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

He's looking more like Chik-fil-A.

Live on that stuff.