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#4
01-27-2011, 03:36 AM
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Quote:
It feels like something that might have worked many, many times for me last year - assuming I got the needed scratch and had the right opinion in the surrounding races. To use an example of the inflated payoffs with a high profile horse for people who aren't following... Dancinginherdreams debuted in a race at Keeneland last October with 9 first time starters and three shabby looking experienced horses. She was bet to 3/2 odds and won by 5. A 6/1 shot and 5/2 favorite won the two prior races and made up a $80.40 double. The pick 3 into her paid $518.40 - more than 5/1 on the double. Quote:
The day Turbulent Design debuted at Oak Tree last October - you had a pair of big field 2yo MSW races loaded with debuters back in the pick six sequence. The kind of races that can discourage people from playing the pick 6. Turbulent Design ($5.40) won debuting as the favorite. The winner of the other 2yo race was an experienced horse who paid $3.40 as none of the debuters got bet hard. That pick six included four winning post time favorites - a 3rd choice - and a 6th choice and paid $35,787 for six and $190.40 for five In theory - I think a strategic edge could be created in the p6 in those two races by singling a scratched horse (both races had two scratches a piece) thus assuring you coverage to the favorite in both races - and leaving you with 4 races and room to spread ... while other tickets are more apt to want to spread in the baby races leaving them with less coverage in the established form races. California loves ending P6's with horrid MCL 32 races often heavy with firsters and occasionally difficult to figure who will go favored. I bet it would be very tedious and expensive buying all of those tickets in the morning and canceling most all of them or all of them by noon. Still, it's something I know a teller could have got away with 10 years ago - and I'd bet they could still get away with that today at most places. 
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