Gotta love Watchmaker....

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

You are so unbelievably biased, it's laughable. What the hell difference does it make if the public overbet him as to whether this horse is a star or not? So stars never get beaten at short odds? He was overbet. You already stated this. He shouldn't have been 8/5. What the **** does that have to do with the horse's talent?

You know what's a "tad ridiculous" to ME? The fact that your horse is, according to you, still "very green" in his fourth start, three weeks from his biggest race of the year, and you interpret that as a positive sign. THAT'S ridiculous.



Oh yes, he's a "come-from-behinder," for sure. This characterization is based on what, exactly? He broke his maiden from within two lengths of the lead BECAUSE TAGG TOLD CORNELIO NOT TO GO TO THE LEAD, then he gets shut off at the break of this race and starts out in ninth, and now he's a "come-from-behinder." Right.

He is a come-from-behinder. He doesn't have sprint speed. That's why he made his debut in a one mile race. This horse is clearly a router. Running in a one-turn race against horses with sprint-speed, I would certainly call him a come-from-behinder. He was running against horses with :44 and change speed. I don't think they wanted to be up there going head and head with the Lukas horse any way.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

He is a come-from-behinder. He doesn't have sprint speed. That's why he made his debut in a one mile race. This horse is clearly a router. Running in a one-turn race against horses with sprint-speed, I would certainly call him a come-from-behinder. He was running against horses with :44 and change speed. I don't think they wanted to be up there going head and head with the Lukas horse any way.

The horse ran a :45 3/5 half in his debut, and because he was at the back of the pack early (DUE TO THE BAD START) in The Champagne, you think he's a come-from-behinder.

I guess the horses with sprint speed stayed in the barn, because fractions of :24 and :47 4/5 certainly aren't fractions I see in many sprint races.

And just because they didn't want him going eye-to-eye with Pegasus Wind means he's a come-from-behinder? I guess you'd have to define come-from-behinder for me then, because I say he's a stalker who likes to be 2-3 lengths off the lead. That could be wrong, but so far, there's more evidence in my favor than in yours.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

The horse ran a :45 3/5 half in his debut, and because he was at the back of the pack early (DUE TO THE BAD START) in The Champagne, you think he's a come-from-behinder.

I guess the horses with sprint speed stayed in the barn, because fractions of :24 and :47 4/5 certainly aren't fractions I see in many sprint races.

And just because they didn't want him going eye-to-eye with Pegasus Wind means he's a come-from-behinder? I guess you'd have to define come-from-behinder for me then, because I say he's a stalker who likes to be 2-3 lengths off the lead. That could be wrong, but so far, there's more evidence in my favor than in yours.

I didn't mean that he wants to come from 10 back. I would agree with you that he is a stalker. I just meant that I wouldn't call him a speed horse, especially in a race where there are horses with sprint speed.

On paper, it looked like there was alot of speed in the race and I would have figured that NoBiz would be about 4-6 lengths behind. As slow as the fractions ended up being run, he could have been right there early.

[blackthroatedwind]

I appreciate your candor in watching the race and being forthright in suggesting that NoBiz had a tougher trip than you originally thought. This is exactly what intelligent disection of a race can do for all of us, certainly myself included, as because of Watch's comments, and thus this thread, you were able to see the race at least a little better. I'm glad someone benefited from that obviously biased article .

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I appreciate your candor in watching the race and being forthright in suggesting that NoBiz had a tougher trip than you originally thought. This is exactly what intelligent disection of a race can do for all of us, certainly myself included, as because of Watch's comments, and thus this thread, you were able to see the race at least a little better. I'm glad someone benefited from that obviously biased article .

Sometimes watching a replay just once is not enough.

On the workout videos at the 2 year old sales, I will often times watch the same 1/8th of a mile workout 10 times. Sometimes you need to watch several times to really get a good feel. Sometimes I feel like I'm "in the zone" and seeing things really clearly. Other times, I'm not seeing things as clearly and I have to keep re-winding the videos and watching them over and over again.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Sometimes watching a replay just once is not enough.

On the workout videos at the 2 year old sales, I will often times watch the same 1/8th of a mile workout 10 times. Sometimes you need to watch several times to really get a good feel. Sometimes I feel like I'm "in the zone" and seeing things really clearly. Other times, I'm not seeing things as clearly and I have to keep re-winding the videos and watching them over and over again.

No doubt. I watch races and replays over and over again, not as much as I did when I played full time, but even now I certainly watch over 2000 different replays annually, often more than once, in addition to watching all the races in NY when they are run ( plus other tracks at different times of the year ).

IMO there is no better way to learn about racing than watching as many races as possible, from both the pan and head-on angle.

[ArlJim78]

If I'm really trying to understand a race, or a particular horses effort/trip in a race, I may watch it over and over as many as 10 times. There are too many things happening all at once making it impossible to take it all in in one or two viewings. Sometimes I'll start with one opinion but after repeated viewings change my mind completely.

[Linny]

I saw the race differently from everyone I guess. While I was impressed with NoBiz' move into contention I really disliked the way he leaned into Pegasus Wind when they turned for home. He was hugging PW all the way down the lane. The photo that accompanies Mike W's article (front page of the Wed DRF) shows NoBiz being hauled off of the inside horse as Scat Daddy runs by.

It's the difference of opinion that makes the betting possible and I hope alot of folks absorb Watch's article and march to the windows to bet NoBiz next month. I think he's too green to win the BCJ. That said, I think he has a ton of natural ability and if he develops properly he should be a major stakes horse.

Also, PW held on well and could be a contender in some of the lesser stakes at the end of the year.

Originally Posted by Linny

I saw the race differently from everyone I guess. While I was impressed with NoBiz' move into contention I really disliked the way he leaned into Pegasus Wind when they turned for home. He was hugging PW all the way down the lane. The photo that accompanies Mike W's article (front page of the Wed DRF) shows NoBiz being hauled off of the inside horse as Scat Daddy runs by.

It's the difference of opinion that makes the betting possible and I hope alot of folks absorb Watch's article and march to the windows to bet NoBiz next month. I think he's too green to win the BCJ. That said, I think he has a ton of natural ability and if he develops properly he should be a major stakes horse.

Also, PW held on well and could be a contender in some of the lesser stakes at the end of the year.

Linny horses aren't machines and they sometimes take a few starts to learn their lessons.
What Nobiz did would only be considered neagtive by me if he does that again and again like Corinthian wound up doing.
Many a very good horse does what Nobiz did in his early races while learning his or her lessons.
He got next to no schooling in his debut as he shot to thelead after 3 duelers committed suicide on the front end. He cantered down the lane and didn't learn any lessons.
Now that they know he may be prone to waiting or lugging in, they will most likely change bits or maybe put cheater blinkers on him if he does it again.
In addition to that, a good trainer like Tagg now knows what to work on in the mornings with him and will probably make sure he works in behind a set of horses or alongside another one in company.
It was only his 2nd start, and its just too early to declare him a mental patient.

[Seattleallstar]

well tagg himself called his horse a big dummy

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar

well tagg himself called his horse a big dummy

Yes he did, the horse is obviously still green. But I doubt he was referring to him in that manner as a very stupid horse, just one who hasn't figured things out yet in terms of racing.
You can't simulate all racing conditions in the morning. Most babies are works in progress.

[Revolution]

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar

well tagg himself called his horse a big dummy

He is really big. I don't know how dumb he is, but he is huge. He makes Showing Up look really tiny.

[Linny]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Linny horses aren't machines and they sometimes take a few starts to learn their lessons.
What Nobiz did would only be considered neagtive by me if he does that again and again like Corinthian wound up doing.
Many a very good horse does what Nobiz did in his early races while learning his or her lessons.
He got next to no schooling in his debut as he shot to thelead after 3 duelers committed suicide on the front end. He cantered down the lane and didn't learn any lessons.
Now that they know he may be prone to waiting or lugging in, they will most likely change bits or maybe put cheater blinkers on him if he does it again.
In addition to that, a good trainer like Tagg now knows what to work on in the mornings with him and will probably make sure he works in behind a set of horses or alongside another one in company.
It was only his 2nd start, and its just too early to declare him a mental patient.

I ride horses and have trained babies, I know they take alot of time. I certainly don't think NoBiz is a mental patient, just a bit short on the seasoning needed to win the BCJ. You are right about his debut, it was (in a way) too good for his own good. I'm sure Tagg will school him well and work on lead changes too. IMO, he was fatiguing from his early efforts to get into the race and struggled with the lead change. Tagg has said that he's a big and goofy colt.
I like him alot and if I had to select a Ky Derby contender from the babies I've seen, he'd be "one of the ones." I just question whether he'll be ready to turn the tables on Scat Daddy and beat horses like Great Hunter and Circular Quay in 3 weeks.

Originally Posted by Linny

I ride horses and have trained babies, I know they take alot of time. I certainly don't think NoBiz is a mental patient, just a bit short on the seasoning needed to win the BCJ. You are right about his debut, it was (in a way) too good for his own good. I'm sure Tagg will school him well and work on lead changes too. IMO, he was fatiguing from his early efforts to get into the race and struggled with the lead change. Tagg has said that he's a big and goofy colt.
I like him alot and if I had to select a Ky Derby contender from the babies I've seen, he'd be "one of the ones." I just question whether he'll be ready to turn the tables on Scat Daddy and beat horses like Great Hunter and Circular Quay in 3 weeks.

Oh I agree with you there!!!
If he were mine he'd be training for the Remsen Stakes on Thanksgiving weekend at Aqueduct.
Rushing him back on three weeks rest and shipping to Ky doesn't seem like the prudent move. Tagg is a really rational and good horseman, I think when it all boils down he will pass the BC. I think thats too much too soon.
The Remsen is a mile and an eigth grade two and 6 weeks rest between the Champagne and Remsen. Lots of time for him to recover off his last race, and learn to switch leads better and mature.
I hope thats what he does.