The Cops are coming after me...

Originally Posted by Dunbar

If I thought he was just 1-3 lengths worse than those other 2, then yes, I would bet him at 21-1. My point is that when a horse loses by less than a length, it doesn't take much of a change to make that horse the winner. I only need him (or horses like him) to win 6% of the time to show an extremely nice profit.

I'm sure you understand that capping isn't about picking the most likely winner of the race. If someone doesn't understand that any horse can win (and any horse can lose), then he/she has very little chance of being a successful capper.

--Dunbar

IMO, only 6% of the time will he get such an easy trip to capitalize on....he got that ideal, lucky, beneficial trip to give him the BEST chance to win and he still got beat by better horses who had way worse journeys than him....