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#1
12-31-2010, 07:03 AM
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12/31: Aqueduct ($17k Mandatory Pay C/O)
Come into New Year's Eve needing proverbial bottom of the ninth heroics to level out what has been a sub-par annum for my bankroll. After getting behind at least $8k during the first half of the year, a strong Saratoga brought me back to solid footing, though still slightly down. Since Spa, an absence of consistent multi-race hits I count on to stay ahead has steadily worn a whole in the pocket. With one day to balance the ledger, I find myself down $6k.
A mandatory pay P6 carryover at Aqueduct could be the answer, and having flirted with 6-7 near-misses in sextets the last 2 months, it would be the ultimate 'walk-off' to catch this one. Wednesday's post-break Aqueduct Pick Six C/O play was the latest close call, having had all the winners listed in the tabs, but managing just 4 on any one ticket. $21.20 Nobody Like Mike and a $360 worth of P3's including him made the day more than OK, but the big prizes ($800 Late P4; $32k P6) proved elusive, and was typical of the kind of afternoon's I've experienced a little too often this year. Hope you've done OK riding with me in 2010. As the year ends, it feels to me that it's been a period of time where I generally handicapped better than I wagered. There have been plenty of highs along the way -- Saratoga season and 40-1 Champagne d'Oro in the Acorn come to mind -- but it's not unusual or unproductive to think there is more work to be done and the approach can be improved. It's just a handful of results that make or break your balance sheet in any year, and I think about Evening Jewel's photo loss in the Kentucky Oaks at 14-1 as the perfect example. If you took chances and lost with some horses at big prices that were agonizingly beat, you still likely made the 'right' plays. You will be rewarded long term if your opinion was sound. Warm wishes for a wonderful new year of health and happiness to ATR listeners, Derby Trailers, horseplayers, horsemen and everyone involved in our favorite game. Let's all work to make 2011 a great year... Steve AQUEDUCT PRE-SCRATCHES 4th: CLM/N1Y, F&M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #2 Iberian Gate 7-5 WON ($2.90) Best Value: #8 Stratton's Girl 8-1 7th Next Best: #4 Judicial Leader 5-1 2nd Super Add: #5 Gattinara 3-1 9th 5th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (G/S, P3, DD) Most Likely: #2 Masala 5-2 WON ($7.10) Best Value: #3 Marilyn's Guy 3-1 2nd Next Best: #1 No Shenanigans 2-1 4th Trifecta Add: #4 Nacho Friend 8-1 5th 6th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #2 SCR Best Value: #7 Illgiveyouwattever 15-1 4th Next Best: #4 Voyager 5-2 2nd Super Add: #5 Katy's Office Girl 2-1 WON ($4.40) 7th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-70y (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #6 Whateverittakes 2-1 WON ($3.60) Best Value: #1 Mr. Hooker 10-1 4th Next Best: #5 Gold Close to Home 3-1 3rd Super Add: #8 Game Token 8-1 8th 8th: 32nd Alex M. Robb-NY, 3+, 8.5f (DD, Super) Most Likely: #4 Ichabad Crane 2-1 WON ($4.90) Next Best: #6 Manteca 3-1 2nd Best Value: #8 Giant Moon 6-1 4th Super Add: #2 Mine Over Matter 4-1 3rd 9th: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 1m-70y (Super) Exceedingly difficult way to end the sequence, and the year. Race hinges on whether RudyRod's 8-5 Gentle Edwin is still a horse as he drops precipitously. After that, there are no auto-tosses.. Best Value: #7 Stopbluffing 8-1 2nd Next Best: #4 French Transition 6-1 7th Exotics Use: #6 Gentle Edwin 8-5 WON ($3.60) Super Add: #5 Hurricane Heat 8-1 9th <$200 P6 Play: 4: 2-8 5: 1-2-3 6: 2-7 7: 6 8: 4-6 9: 4-5-6-7 2x3x2x1x2x4 = 96 x $2 = $192 $2 P6 (5 of 6) Pays $6.60 x 2 = $13.20 <$75 P4 Play: 6: 2/SCR-4-7 7: 1-6 8: 4-6-8 9: 4-5-6-7 2x2x3x4 = $48 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 01-01-2011 at 08:00 AM. 
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#3
12-31-2010, 08:25 AM
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Can't say it enough Steve............appreciate all the work on the radio and the website. Your bottom line is not the true measure of your success. Great Stuff.
BOL today and for 2011 !!!!!!!!
__________________
A racehorse is an animal that can take several thousand people for a ride at the same time. ~Author Unknown
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#5
12-31-2010, 10:01 AM
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Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#7
12-31-2010, 10:17 AM
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AQU SCR/CHG's: http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/AQU-changes.asp
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#9
12-31-2010, 03:47 PM
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Thanks for the kind words and well wishes! Happy New Year! Let's make '11 a great year.. Quote:
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Thanks! Always hope readers/listeners find my view useful in interpreting races and building their own plays. Was of course amused to conso today's chalk parade to end the year! Best for the New Year!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#10
12-31-2010, 05:19 PM
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Steve
Have a healthy and joyous 2011. Thanks for all you do. Also this is a great haven for horseplayers I sometimes feel we are anachronists and dwindling in number this helps restore faith in a sport that is too often overlooked
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#12
12-31-2010, 07:56 PM
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Thanks for all of your efforts. I give thanks for the many horses and plays you have offered this year, and here's to a more profitable 2011.
__________________
"Let the whiners and lazy cry about how impossible "they've" made it to win at this game." - Steve Byk
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Good luck today!
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