Keeneland

[NoCarolinaTony]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I understand where you are coming from. I just think it is ridiculous that everyone is blaming the surface everytime they lose a bet or a race goes slow and I think it is funny that the Frizette barely gets mentioned on here because it was on dirt but if it was on poly it would be used by everyone as an example of how terrible the surface is. I think the most talented horse is winning at a higher rate now than on the old dirt track at Keeneland, not that that is saying much. Should they tweak it before the April meet so it is more favorable to closers? Absolutely. Are the horses winning the races really that unusual? I sure don't think so, especially not in the stakes races.

Sniper

Basically what you have here are handicappers bitching am moaning about bad handicapping.

1) You can't bet every race and you can't win every race you bet.
2) Every track regardless of type- has their own idiosyncracies (Such as Old Inside Speed @ Kee was the bias)
3) With todays Simulcast era, pick the races per day that fit your handicapping style best.
4) Speed figures have been holding pretty good at KEE therefore the fastest horse is winning more often than not but you wont see it in the DRF or Beyer figs
5) If you are familiar with Brohammer type speed figures the best winning percentage is one with the best FX rating has been winning at KEE 36% with value- what does that mean-- its the combination of the first fraction and last fraction averaged. What is that telling you< you need some early pace (not front runner) but also need a good closing kick.
6) Horses who recently ran at KD seems to have their stamina up so that appears what you need at KEE. Quite a few KD to KEE Poly have won. Turf and Dirt horses are equals going into a race unlike what you might get on regular dirt.
7) Larger fields tend to have better payouts but also make it harder to find one longshot in a race, you may have 2 or 3 shots with a shot.
8) Good handicappers always adjust _ This poly surface seems to be tiring to many horses.
9)What will happen next when Poly horses go back to dirt? Are they legged up in better shape?
10) Horses with high leg action seems to do well on the surface.
11) Sires like Gone West-Ellusive Quality, the Storm Cat Line (Catenius, etc) have all done Well. So what you should look for are sires that have produced winners on muliple surfaces Dirt,turf, & wet will probably adapt to poly quicker than others.

Once you have enough of a sample, all the crying and moaning will go away as the early adapters will have made their scores while the stubborn whiners will be needing some cheese to go with all that Whine

NC Tony