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Old 12-02-2010, 02:20 PM
parsixfarms parsixfarms is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by robfla View Post
Is Prove Out's 2:25.4 in the Woodward the second fastest ever 12F on dirt?
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  #2  
Old 12-02-2010, 03:04 PM
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The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by parsixfarms View Post
Is Prove Out's 2:25.4 in the Woodward the second fastest ever 12F on dirt?
I have no idea...but Prove Out was like an Allen Jerkens miracle and pretty dangerous on a loose lead. The Woodward was Prove Out's 4th start in September of '73 alone. Can you believe he went off at 9/2 odds in his next start after romping over Secretariat in the slop?

I have two cuts of his form: Mid season 1973 before Allen Jerkens




Catching fire once Jerkens took over his training:




Jerkens also upset Secretariat with Onion in the Whitney - Onion was basically a need-the-lead sprinter.
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Old 12-02-2010, 06:44 PM
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hoovesupsideyourhead hoovesupsideyourhead is offline
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nice job drugs
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  #4  
Old 12-02-2010, 11:39 PM
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How did Secretariat look on the fat charts?
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Still trying to outsmart me, aren't you, mule-skinner? You want me to think that you don't want me to go down there, but the subtle truth is you really don't want me to go down there!
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  #5  
Old 12-02-2010, 11:46 PM
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Indian Charlie Indian Charlie is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaTruth View Post
How did Secretariat look on the fat charts?
Not nearly as good as Zenyatta.
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  #6  
Old 12-03-2010, 12:19 AM
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Quote:
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Not nearly as good as Zenyatta.
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  #7  
Old 12-03-2010, 08:02 AM
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The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
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Others I've projected:

Affirmed: Ky Derby 116, Preakness 115, Belmont 118
Alydar: Ky Derby 114, Preakness 115, Belmont 118

Spectacular Bid: Ky Derby 119, Preakness 120, Belmont 111

Seattle Slew: Ky Derby 108, Preakness 112, Belmont 107

Damascus: Preakness 111
Dr. Fager: Jersey Derby 116


A few really old ones that pre-date Ragozin numbers and are silly to even attempt to guess at but looked fast:

* Whirlaway's 8 length KY Derby victory in track record time: The final time was 50 full points faster than the days other route - a $1,000-to-$1,250 claiming race for older males. Your avg winning Beyer of a typical bottom level claiming route for older males at a decent caliber track today is 67. Adding 50 would get you to 117. You had four other routes the day Whirlaway won the Preakness - that race looks in a 106 to 112 range.

* Swaps ran 49 points faster in his KY Derby win than an open 5K CLM route for straight 3yo males in the days lone other dirt route. Considering the year was 1955 .. there's a chance that race might possibly be as fast as a 120.

* Man O' War's Preakness was five points faster than a solid winning older male named Irish Kiss ran that day. Irish Kiss was 3rd by 2 at 16/1 last out to a horse named Boniface - Boniface was subsquently 2nd in that years Brooklyn and Suburban. I would guess his Preakness to be in like a 106 to 114 range. His Belmont to be in a 110 to 118 range.

It's pretty remarkable that Secretariat has such an edge over everyone over the course of the whole Triple Crown series. There certainly have been better entire careers imo - but put 126lbs on them, make them go 9.5 to 12fs in the middle of the 3yo season, and he really does stand out.
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