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#1
10-14-2006, 02:25 PM
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I'll bet races at Keeneland the first weekend in December. It just won't be on Keeneland races.
So... vent for me. What hap[pened? Did the pace stop again? Did a horse knock the **** out of another, but the inquiry was denied? What?
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Facebook- Peter May Jr. Twitter- @pmayjr You wouldn't be ballin' if your name was Spauldin' If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased... 
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#4
10-14-2006, 08:57 PM
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not
I was of similar opine early on, but, I have learned what to look for each day I play there. It's quite different and I adjust to it.It's a learning process and I figure I better learn it because it is the future. CAn't live in the past my friend. I don't try for homeruns. How can you not like the lower takeout and large fields and payouts in kentucky ?
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#5
10-14-2006, 10:33 PM
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Quote:
 Last edited by TitanSooner : 10-15-2006 at 09:59 AM.
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#6
10-15-2006, 12:06 AM
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Thank God the Frizette wasn't run on polytrack today because I can't even imagine the whining that would be going on here if it was.
The complaining everytime someone gets beat on polytrack reminds me of all the people who complain when they get a bad beat in poker on-line and claim it is fixed - extremely lame. Guess what, if we all knew how every race was going to turn out we'd all be rich. They throw in stinkers on every surface (as evidenced by the Frizette) and there are always going to be horses that dominate allowances and suck when they step up to stakes races like Latent Heat. If you want to discuss how it isn't playing to speed then fine, that is a legitimate capping angle. If you just want to bash the surface then go troll somewhere else so those of us who actually want to play polytrack can discuss the races on it.
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#7
10-15-2006, 07:49 AM
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I cannot use horses that I know are inferior to others regardless of surface. Many of these horses are horses I know personally, its just not the best horses winning races. I cant get my mind to play such an extreme bias, therefore Im done playing.
As for online poker being rigged, there is noway it isnt. Ive played a lot of poker, very rarely at a casino table game will you have 5 guys in a hand until the end all playing for different draws. Its so obviously set up for maximum rake. That argument is worse than poly being a fair racing surface
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#8
10-15-2006, 08:40 AM
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Sniper its not that its rigged. But once again, we've bred and trained horse for speed for God knows how long. A surface in which there are 3 wire jobs in 7 days of racing, well I mean, do you really feel the most talented horse is winning?
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#9
10-15-2006, 09:49 AM
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#10
10-15-2006, 09:58 AM
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I agree with Sniper.
What's the difference if they're running on Poly or black top? Every track, regardless of surface is going to favor different horses. Some horses need a race over it before they take to the surface, others never do. I think I would still prefer the Poly at Keeneland vs. the old "break-em'-down" dirt surface.
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#11
10-15-2006, 10:14 AM
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The surface at Keeneland in the past gave a major advantage to horses who use front-running speed to win races. Several other tracks give the advantage to the same sorts of horses, so they win more races there and look like better animals.
However the new surface at Keeneland allows horses with stamina to win races, too. In the race you cite, I had picked out 5 horses as contenders - the 'duh!' horse Extreme Supreme plus Special Event, Sidcup, Drilling for Oil and Save Big Money. Sidcup made the cut because a) he had run well in a 12f race at the level over the testing surface at KD, b) he had hit the board in the majority of his recent starts, including on dirt, and c) he had shown comfort with the Keeneland surface with a 48.00 work (3/39) since his last race. You probably thought that Extreme Supreme was the 'best' horse because he broke his maiden at Saratoga and got some sort of 'big number'; but when you look at it, he sat up near the pace in a very slowly run race. They ran faster fractions at Keeneland and ES couldn't keep up when the real running started. He had done the same thing in his first try at the allowance level at Belmont. Let go of your preconceived notions and you will improve your handicapping.
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#12
10-15-2006, 10:41 AM
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Basically what you have here are handicappers bitching am moaning about bad handicapping. 1) You can't bet every race and you can't win every race you bet. 2) Every track regardless of type- has their own idiosyncracies (Such as Old Inside Speed @ Kee was the bias) 3) With todays Simulcast era, pick the races per day that fit your handicapping style best. 4) Speed figures have been holding pretty good at KEE therefore the fastest horse is winning more often than not but you wont see it in the DRF or Beyer figs 5) If you are familiar with Brohammer type speed figures the best winning percentage is one with the best FX rating has been winning at KEE 36% with value- what does that mean-- its the combination of the first fraction and last fraction averaged. What is that telling you< you need some early pace (not front runner) but also need a good closing kick. 6) Horses who recently ran at KD seems to have their stamina up so that appears what you need at KEE. Quite a few KD to KEE Poly have won. Turf and Dirt horses are equals going into a race unlike what you might get on regular dirt. 7) Larger fields tend to have better payouts but also make it harder to find one longshot in a race, you may have 2 or 3 shots with a shot. 8) Good handicappers always adjust _ This poly surface seems to be tiring to many horses. 9)What will happen next when Poly horses go back to dirt? Are they legged up in better shape? 10) Horses with high leg action seems to do well on the surface. 11) Sires like Gone West-Ellusive Quality, the Storm Cat Line (Catenius, etc) have all done Well. So what you should look for are sires that have produced winners on muliple surfaces Dirt,turf, & wet will probably adapt to poly quicker than others. Once you have enough of a sample, all the crying and moaning will go away as the early adapters will have made their scores while the stubborn whiners will be needing some cheese to go with all that Whine NC Tony
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