Breeders Cup Friday Thoughts

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I thought Court Vision had a wonderful setup and perfect trip in the Woodbine Mile win. I liked him more than The Usual QT going into that race - but I actually thought that The Usual QT ran the better race of the two that day and the outcome didn't reflect that ... so that's basically why I'm not using Court Vision and will be using The Usual QT.

This is one of the funniest Breeders Cup's I ever remember from a handicapping and betting standpoint.

I'm so used to having such strong convictions for these races because I follow all regions and circuits closely all year long. It's not like you can have those strong convictions any more - mostly because of synthetic surfaces. Only a complete fool can have strong convictions about a single horse winning in some of these races.

It's actually A LOT easier to handicap these BC cards on synthetic. It's basically synthetic form versus turf form - the Euro's are a lot stronger - and toss the dirt horses - especially the ones with speed. It's dizzying when it's on dirt.

You got the 19% takeout on super's and pick 4's at Churchill - and a lot of the biggest and better bettors are really just regional guys - so sharpies can become dopes on days like this. It's going to be interesting to see how some of these races are bet.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I thought Court Vision had a wonderful setup and perfect trip in the Woodbine Mile win. I liked him more than The Usual QT going into that race - but I actually thought that The Usual QT ran the better race of the two that day and the outcome didn't reflect that ... so that's basically why I'm not using Court Vision and will be using The Usual QT.

This is one of the funniest Breeders Cup's I ever remember from a handicapping and betting standpoint.

I'm so used to having such strong convictions for these races because I follow all regions and circuits closely all year long. It's not like you can have those strong convictions any more - mostly because of synthetic surfaces. Only a complete fool can have strong convictions about a single horse winning in some of these races.

It's actually A LOT easier to handicap these BC cards on synthetic. It's basically synthetic form versus turf form - the Euro's are a lot stronger - and toss the dirt horses - especially the ones with speed. It's dizzying when it's on dirt.

You got the 19% takeout on super's and pick 4's at Churchill - and a lot of the biggest and better bettors are really just regional guys - so sharpies can become dopes on days like this. It's going to be interesting to see how some of these races are bet.

Yeah, agreed on Court Vision, but I figured you'd be using him underneath in exotics.

Obviously I like QT more.

[King Glorious]

Marathon
Alcomo
Bright Horizon
Gabriel's Hill
Precision Break

F/M Sprint
Sara Louise
Champagne d'Oro
Rightly So
Informed Decision

Juv Fillies
Awesome Feather
R Heat Lightning
Tell a Kelly
AZ Warrior

F/M Turf
Midday
Harmonious
Forever Together
Red Desire

Distaff
Life At Ten
Unrivaled Belle
Blind Luck
Havre de Grace

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Funny how Shirreffs is suppose to be so scared, but he takes a shot with Harmonious. She should of easily won that day at Del Mar. She was wet before that race. She's her own worst enemy. I don't know why she was that wide late in the race. Smith takes her way wide on the turn, and never got her to come back in. Like I said she was bothered by the crowd (or whatever,) and looked horrible 5 minutes before post. Still had plenty of run, but wasted it. She's talented. She's not limited by some figure. She's limited more by herself. Find out today if she's able to hang with these. Wouldn't just toss her out, but that's me. She's a bad ride away from being a three time Grade 1 winner.Those were 3 year olds, and we'll see if she can compete with these.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Mile

A simple exacta backwheel of Gio Ponti to the only rational contenders is a bet I've had a great deal of luck with on multiple occasions this year.

His win last time out was in a race just tailor made for him. You had 3 quality speeds. One hopeless speed that was going to go out and spoil the race for the 3 quality speeds... and basically the only two remaining horse were Gio Ponti in the hapless Society's Chairman.

Gio Ponti won what amounted to a match race over Society's Chairman in a final time slower than Provisio needed to edge out C. S Silk at the same distance on the same card. The three quality speeds in there where all compromised by the desperate and hopeless cheap speed.

The performance by Gio Ponti was so underwhelming - that it's got me scratching my head and wondering if he's good enough to run 2nd here - and if the bet is even worth it because he will attract money.

I'm going back to the well one more time. I'll be keying Gio Ponti in the 2nd slot - using only Paco Boy, The Usual QT, Sidney's Candy, and Goldikova in the top slot.

Nice call. He's almost a Perfect Driftish sure thing on the backweel.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Thanks. The Usual QT and Paco Boy getting 3rd and 4th was big for me. Hadn't been a good day at all to that point.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Thanks. The Usual QT and Paco Boy getting 3rd and 4th was big for me. Hadn't been a good day at all to that point.

Good job Doug.