Etched & the Classic

Dahoss · #1 10-28-2010, 08:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PatCummings

It might look that way on paper, but you can't deny a few things...

Toss his race in Dubai without Lasix and an effort in the Clark where something clearly went wrong, and the horse is 7 for 7. He does have the third off angle going for him and he gutted back after Musket Man took a narrow lead in the Monmouth Cup. He's fresh and is out of a BC Distaff longshot winner. He'll get pace sit off of which hasn't been the case in his two starts this season.

All that being said, he'll be at least 30-1, but isn't without some angles.

It's easy to get creative when discussing a horse's chances, but you can't deny a few things...

Musket Man, while a nice horse hasn't really shown a huge desire to win this year and missed significant training time prior to the Monmouth Cup. Etched has beaten a field of 4 and 6 this year. He's not going to be sitting a perfect trip off of Chirac or Great Debater in the Classic.

You're right, he'll be a big price, but he should be. I just don't see how it is possible that he runs early and hangs on late.

PatCummings · #2 10-28-2010, 09:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss

It's easy to get creative when discussing a horse's chances, but you can't deny a few things...

Musket Man, while a nice horse hasn't really shown a huge desire to win this year and missed significant training time prior to the Monmouth Cup. Etched has beaten a field of 4 and 6 this year. He's not going to be sitting a perfect trip off of Chirac or Great Debater in the Classic.

You're right, he'll be a big price, but he should be. I just don't see how it is possible that he runs early and hangs on late.

I'm not saying I'm picking him as my first choice, but he has infinitely better qualities to win a 10 furlongs dirt race at Churchill than say...Mine That Bird. I'll be interpreting KML's comments next week and that should tell you all you need to know.

Dahoss · #3 10-28-2010, 09:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PatCummings

I'm not saying I'm picking him as my first choice, but he has infinitely better qualities to win a 10 furlongs dirt race at Churchill than say...Mine That Bird. I'll be interpreting KML's comments next week and that should tell you all you need to know.

Yeah, trainerspeak is almost as solid as listening to what jocks have to say.

Serious question, if he is owned by someone else what kind of a chance do you give him?

PatCummings · #4 10-28-2010, 11:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Yeah, trainerspeak is almost as solid as listening to what jocks have to say.

Serious question, if he is owned by someone else what kind of a chance do you give him?

That's one you should ask yourself or anyone else...say it's another KML client...everything else applies. I'm a sucker for the third race off form, and considering the rest of that form is perfect save what I talked about earlier...

Dahoss · #5 10-29-2010, 02:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PatCummings

That's one you should ask yourself or anyone else...say it's another KML client...everything else applies. I'm a sucker for the third race off form, and considering the rest of that form is perfect save what I talked about earlier...

I could care less who owns the horse. His form is perfect except for the times he's lost. It also looks better than it is IMO because of things like Musket man missing two months of training or Mint Lane missing the break at Saratoga.

He'll be long, so good luck. I just think he's more likely to finish 12th than 3rd or better.

Linny · #6 10-29-2010, 09:57 AM

I don't see him as a win candidate but, his late pace figs indicate that he might hang around for part of the tri or super. I expect a contested pace and Etched will be part of it. Depending on where is is relative to other speed (possibly just off Haynesfield, Espoir City and QR) and how fast they go I can see him sticking around for a while. Of course, he could be the first of the pressers to fade...

Etched could run 4th or last and neither would surprise me.

ateamstupid · #7 10-28-2010, 09:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PatCummings

I'm not saying I'm picking him as my first choice, but he has infinitely better qualities to win a 10 furlongs dirt race at Churchill than say...Mine That Bird.

Pretty ironic statement.

NTamm1215 · #8 10-28-2010, 09:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PatCummings

I'll be interpreting KML's comments next week and that should tell you all you need to know.

Is he going to be speaking a different language?

PatCummings · #9 10-28-2010, 11:17 PM

It's easy to tell when KML has a live horse and when he doesn't in a big stakes race, and I know NTamm knows that one too.

letswastemoney · #10 10-28-2010, 11:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PatCummings

I'm not saying I'm picking him as my first choice, but he has infinitely better qualities to win a 10 furlongs dirt race at Churchill than say...Mine That Bird. I'll be interpreting KML's comments next week and that should tell you all you need to know.

Are you saying Etched has better qualities to win the Classic at Churchill rather than if Mine That Bird, the Derby winner, was in the race?

PatCummings · #11 10-29-2010, 12:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Are you saying Etched has better qualities to win the Classic at Churchill rather than if Mine That Bird, the Derby winner, was in the race?

My comparison was...

Take a look at the past performances of MTB before the 2009 Kentucky Derby and Etched before this year's Classic and tell me who looks more likely to win a respective 10 furlong race at Churchill Downs. I am saying Etched does have better qualities to win this year's Classic than MTB had to win the 2009 Derby.

All that being said, I still think Etched is a longshot and would never be my pick to win the race...but he's got some usability angles. If I'm alive in a pick four going into the Classic, I wouldn't mind a $.50 ticket alive to Etched.