Breeders Cup betting??

[philcski]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Oh great. . . you're back.

These threads are so worthless every time someone starts one. I have no idea how this guy should bet the Breeders' Cup. All I can tell him is how I would bet it, but the way I bet it is based on the types of opinions that I formulate on my own. Saying that pk3s are good bets if the guy's opinion is that some longshot can get in the tri or whatever isn't going to do him any good.

Look at the two posts before this - one praising the pk3 and one condemning it. They're both right, or both wrong. It's a good bet for some people, or for some opinions, but not others.

No bet is better or worse than another without considering what is being bet. The tri is not inherently better or worse than the Pk3 when you don't know what numbers are going to fill either one.

The win/place thing was just a shot at PG, who fails to understand why betting win/place is terrible despite my many attempts to explain it to him.

I would disagree that Win/Place is always a terrible bet. Sometimes it works out to be a better choice. For example, the other day at Keeneland I liked a horse that was 3-1 ML and decided (a) the odds would likely go down on her from the ML and (b) the pick 3 could offer value because both the last leg was very difficult and the first leg potentially tough. I played a 5x1x8 pick 3, and with a $21.80 horse in the last it paid $212 for a buck. Ok, not bad for a 3-1 ML- I was certainly pleased. Well my instinct was wrong on her odds as she drifted up to 5.5-1 and paid $13 to win, so for the same $40 I would have gotten $260 despite having a good result in the last. Did I make the right bet based on my opinion? Yes. Did it work out great? Yes and no. Remember that in most jurisdictions (KY excluded) there is a significant takeout penalty for playing a pick 3 versus a WPS bet.

My best suggestion is if you like a horse that is double digits, bet it to win/place and be happy with the result, or press it with an exacta. If it's less than 10-1 pick 3's (or even doubles) make sense.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by philcski

I would disagree that Win/Place is always a terrible bet. Sometimes it works out to be a better choice. For example, the other day at Keeneland I liked a horse that was 3-1 ML and decided (a) the odds would likely go down on her from the ML and (b) the pick 3 could offer value because both the last leg was very difficult and the first leg potentially tough. I played a 5x1x8 pick 3, and with a $21.80 horse in the last it paid $212 for a buck. Ok, not bad for a 3-1 ML- I was certainly pleased. Well my instinct was wrong on her odds as she drifted up to 5.5-1 and paid $13 to win, so for the same $40 I would have gotten $260 despite having a good result in the last. Did I make the right bet based on my opinion? Yes. Did it work out great? Yes and no. Remember that in most jurisdictions (KY excluded) there is a significant takeout penalty for playing a pick 3 versus a WPS bet.

My best suggestion is if you like a horse that is double digits, bet it to win/place and be happy with the result, or press it with an exacta. If it's less than 10-1 pick 3's (or even doubles) make sense.

That's not what I'm saying. Obviously win bets alone are fine. . . obviously. Win PLUS place is terrible.

[jms62]

I recall reading somewhere that the P3's average in excess of 1K on a dollar ticket. How is that a bad bet?

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by jms62

I recall reading somewhere that the P3's average in excess of 1K on a dollar ticket. How is that a bad bet?

On this day or 2 days, its far and away the best bet. Its not even close. Chalk-Chalk-Chalk is an overlay most times because of the large fields and huge pools.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by jms62

I recall reading somewhere that the P3's average in excess of 1K on a dollar ticket. How is that a bad bet?

The P6 averages six figures on a $2 ticket... it's all relative...

[philcski]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

That's not what I'm saying. Obviously win bets alone are fine. . . obviously. Win PLUS place is terrible.

Again, depends. I liked Friendly Island some as a crazy longshot in the Sprint back in '06. Did I think he could win at 60-1? No, not really. Bet him across the board (and keyed my top choice Bordonaro in multi's & exotics), and he paid $50 to place and $32.80 to show. How would I have felt if I just bet him to win, even though that wasn't really my opinion?

However, what I think you are getting at, would betting Zenyatta or Goldikova win PLUS place this year be a poor wager? Of course.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by philcski

Again, depends. I liked Friendly Island some as a crazy longshot in the Sprint back in '06. Did I think he could win at 60-1? No, not really. Bet him across the board (and keyed my top choice Bordonaro in multi's & exotics), and he paid $50 to place and $32.80 to show. How would I have felt if I just bet him to win, even though that wasn't really my opinion?

However, what I think you are getting at, would betting Zenyatta or Goldikova win PLUS place this year be a poor wager? Of course.

I think what he is getting at is bet to win and then back it up with exactas with the horse you like for second instead of betting to place. It's one of the mistakes I make more often than I should. I like a big priced horse, it finishes second to a logical horse and I'm left with nothing because I didn't take a few extra dollars and back it up.

There was a thread, probably 3 or 4 years ago that dealt with something like this. The gist of it was it was better finacially to just put your horse under the favorite than bet the horse to place.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I think what he is getting at is bet to win and then back it up with exactas with the horse you like for second instead of betting to place. It's one of the mistakes I make more often than I should. I like a big priced horse, it finishes second to a logical horse and I'm left with nothing because I didn't take a few extra dollars and back it up.

There was a thread, probably 3 or 4 years ago that dealt with something like this. The gist of it was it was better finacially to just put your horse over the favorite than bet the horse to place.

A thread does not make it right. If you like a big priced horse bet it w/p. Who says the chalk is always going to win?

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

A thread does not make it right. If you like a big priced horse bet it w/p. Who says the chalk is always going to win?

The thread examined 250 races. That is a pretty large sample. Obviously I wouldn't recommend JUST playing the favorite, but that was how the thread went.

I know you have no desire to look at other ways of doing things, but some might. Say you like a horse and are going to bet $20 win/place. You're better off playing $25 or $30 to win and then using the rest playing your horse second in exactas.

I used to bet win/place, but I almost never do anymore.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

The thread examined 250 races. That is a pretty large sample. Obviously I wouldn't recommend JUST playing the favorite, but that was how the thread went.

I know you have no desire to look at other ways of doing things, but some might. Say you like a horse and are going to bet $20 win/place. You're better off playing $25 or $30 to win and then using the rest playing your horse second in exactas.

I used to bet win/place, but I almost never do anymore.

I look at things different, and of course I have a desire to make $/more $. I just dont think its a lock system. You play it that way, then what happens if a bomb runs 1,3 and you can get $20p $12S..... Or something bigger like Phil said $50p $30s

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I think what he is getting at is bet to win and then back it up with exactas with the horse you like for second instead of betting to place. It's one of the mistakes I make more often than I should. I like a big priced horse, it finishes second to a logical horse and I'm left with nothing because I didn't take a few extra dollars and back it up.

There was a thread, probably 3 or 4 years ago that dealt with something like this. The gist of it was it was better finacially to just put your horse over the favorite than bet the horse to place.

It was " under " the favorite...not over.

I realize you know why, but for those that don't, it's just takeout dispersion.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It was " under " the favorite...not over.

I realize you know why, but for those that don't, it's just takeout dispersion.

My bad, that was what I meant. That's what I get for trying to do more than one thing at a time.

[blackthroatedwind]

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10605

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I think what he is getting at is bet to win and then back it up with exactas with the horse you like for second instead of betting to place. It's one of the mistakes I make more often than I should. I like a big priced horse, it finishes second to a logical horse and I'm left with nothing because I didn't take a few extra dollars and back it up.

There was a thread, probably 3 or 4 years ago that dealt with something like this. The gist of it was it was better finacially to just put your horse under the favorite than bet the horse to place.

I think the longshot win + exacta underneath logicals is a great play and obviously the one I use the most. Net pool pricing has made it less valuable relative to just win + place than it used to. In my specific example I would have struck out on the exacta because Thor's Echo was nowhere near my tickets, but on a regular basis it's the smartest play, especially in jursidictions with cheap exacta takeout like KY or NY.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by philcski

I would disagree that Win/Place is always a terrible bet. Sometimes it works out to be a better choice. For example, the other day at Keeneland I liked a horse that was 3-1 ML and decided (a) the odds would likely go down on her from the ML and (b) the pick 3 could offer value because both the last leg was very difficult and the first leg potentially tough. I played a 5x1x8 pick 3, and with a $21.80 horse in the last it paid $212 for a buck. Ok, not bad for a 3-1 ML- I was certainly pleased. Well my instinct was wrong on her odds as she drifted up to 5.5-1 and paid $13 to win, so for the same $40 I would have gotten $260 despite having a good result in the last. Did I make the right bet based on my opinion? Yes. Did it work out great? Yes and no. Remember that in most jurisdictions (KY excluded) there is a significant takeout penalty for playing a pick 3 versus a WPS bet.

My best suggestion is if you like a horse that is double digits, bet it to win/place and be happy with the result, or press it with an exacta. If it's less than 10-1 pick 3's (or even doubles) make sense.

As usual 80% of my handle will be Win, Doubles, and exactas.
Plenty of to be made with good opinions on those bets on Cup day.
I'm am just not comfortable putting $100-200 into tri's,supers, and p3's on multiple races.
I might play a $200 p4 if I really like a sequence and think I can beat a heavy fav.
Id' love to make a DrugS like score this year.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

As usual 80% of my handle will be Win, Doubles, and exactas.
Plenty of to be made with good opinions on those bets on Cup day.
I'm am just not comfortable putting $100-200 into tri's,supers, and p3's on multiple races.
I might play a $200 p4 if I really like a sequence and think I can beat a heavy fav.
Id' love to make a DrugS like score this year.

I agree with doubles.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

As usual 80% of my handle will be Win, Doubles, and exactas.
Plenty of to be made with good opinions on those bets on Cup day.
I'm am just not comfortable putting $100-200 into tri's,supers, and p3's on multiple races.
I might play a $200 p4 if I really like a sequence and think I can beat a heavy fav.
Id' love to make a DrugS like score this year.

Your handle seems like its going to be a lot bigger then mine this year. Good Luck VJ.