Some preliminary BC thoughts - Page 3

Dahoss · #41 10-23-2010, 10:13 PM

I'm a bit confused as to how someone can like Quality Road, but not think Blame can win the race.

I don't think it's a stretch to think he wasn't fully cranked for the JCGC and I don't think it was his "A" race. He came home pretty quick and the goal was the Classic, not the JCGC.

RockHardTen1985 · #42 10-23-2010, 10:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I'm a bit confused as to how someone can like Quality Road, but not think Blame can win the race.

I don't think it's a stretch to think he wasn't fully cranked for the JCGC and I don't think it was his "A" race. He came home pretty quick and the goal was the Classic, not the JCGC.

If your going to go that route, the goal for QR has been the Classic since late 2009. His main goals had to be Met Mile and Classic. I guess we will see in 14 days, I know Im excited.

Dahoss · #43 10-23-2010, 10:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

If your going to go that route, the goal for QR has been the Classic since late 2009. His main goals had to be Met Mile and Classic. I guess we will see in 14 days, I know Im excited.

Instead of looking to argue, understand what I am saying. There isn't a whole lot separating them. I actually view QR as one of the contenders. Maybe the 10th furlong will be his undoing, but we'll see.

What I don't understand is how you can boldly claim to like one of them. Then say the other has no shot.

RockHardTen1985 · #44 10-23-2010, 10:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Instead of looking to argue, understand what I am saying. There isn't a whole lot separating them. I actually view QR as one of the contenders. Maybe the 10th furlong will be his undoing, but we'll see.

What I don't understand is how you can boldly claim to like one of them. Then say the other has no shot.

I understand, I dont like Blame much and wont be using. I really dont know why, I guess I think QR style and connections make him a bit more dangerous.

Smooth Operator · #45 10-23-2010, 10:59 PM

B is clearly the horse to beat given his multiple scores at CD.

Probably took some stamina away from that JCGC effort too … not to mention the fact that he trains on superior synthetic.

Should be a solid post-time fav … but probably won't be with Z in there.

RockHardTen1985 · #46 10-23-2010, 11:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smooth Operator

B is clearly the horse to beat given his multiple scores at CD.

Probably took some stamina away from that JCGC effort too … not to mention the fact that he trains on superior synthetic.

Should be a solid post-time fav … but probably won't be with Z in there.

Is this an attempt at humor?

hockey2315 · #47 10-23-2010, 11:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Is this an attempt at humor?

Attempt at hedging.

Smooth Operator · #48 10-23-2010, 11:11 PM

Dead serious, Rock

B looks like the most likely winner at this point…

RockHardTen1985 · #49 10-23-2010, 11:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smooth Operator

Dead serious, Rock

B looks like the most likely winner at this point…

If your going to jump off Z, why not with QR or L@L...
You have to take a stand somewhere to make $, mine is Blame.

RockHardTen1985 · #50 10-23-2010, 11:29 PM

I am really curious to see how people will respond to this...

Why can Blame handle 10f? Because they say he can. Is that not the reasson he was such a heavy chalk in the JCGC, because he is supposed to relish 10f and they wanted to get him going long and blah blah... Then he runs like **** IMO.

Z can get it. Lucky is more proven then Blame to get it IMO.

QR, well QR has run a race at 10f that might be good enough to win this thing, but people still question the distance. What was wrong with his JCGC last year? Im really curious of this? Why is Blame wanting this such a given. The way he is always hard ridden, and his plodding grinding style IMO is not suited for 10f chasing QR and with the runs L@L and Z will surely come with. Of the big 4, Blame is most likely not to show up IMO.

ateamstupid · #51 10-23-2010, 11:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

The 2 best horses Blame has defeated are QR and Battle Plan, I like both of them. One of them is now in Japan? The other is everyones toss for the BC. DOes not say much, right?

Blame also beat Haynesfield. Who is light years ahead of anyone Zenyatta's beaten this year. Just deal with it. In her whole career, she has one serious win, and it came on a surface that basically no one other than her was guaranteed to handle.

Dahoss · #52 10-23-2010, 11:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I am really curious to see how people will respond to this...

Why can Blame handle 10f? Because they say he can. Is that not the reasson he was such a heavy chalk in the JCGC, because he is supposed to relish 10f and they wanted to get him going long and blah blah... Then he runs like **** IMO.

Z can get it. Lucky is more proven then Blame to get it IMO.

QR, well QR has run a race at 10f that might be good enough to win this thing, but people still question the distance. What was wrong with his JCGC last year? Im really curious of this? Why is Blame wanting this such a given. The way he is always hard ridden, and his plodding grinding style IMO is not suited for 10f chasing QR and with the runs L@L and Z will surely come with. Of the big 4, Blame is most likely not to show up IMO.

If you start out thinking he ran like s.hit, we'll probably not agree. But I didn't think his JCGC was bad. He held second, came home quick to a loose on he lead horse that loves Belmont.

Just by looking at his races it seems like he'll have no problem gettin one more furlong. Out of the 5 contenders I have in mind the only one with a slight distance concern is Quality Road. But I think Pletcher is going to have him in fine form. I think Pletcher is lining up for a real strong day (s)

Smooth Operator · #53 10-23-2010, 11:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

If your going to jump off Z, why not with QR or L@L...
You have to take a stand somewhere to make $, mine is Blame.

Race is unplayable for me, Rock.

Have way too strong a rooting interest with Z to put serious money on B (or any of the others).

Would need to get at least 9-2 or 5-1 on her … which obviously won't happen…

Smooth Operator · #54 10-24-2010, 12:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I am really curious to see how people will respond to this...

Why can Blame handle 10f? Because they say he can. Is that not the reasson he was such a heavy chalk in the JCGC, because he is supposed to relish 10f and they wanted to get him going long and blah blah... Then he runs like **** IMO.

Z can get it. Lucky is more proven then Blame to get it IMO.

QR, well QR has run a race at 10f that might be good enough to win this thing, but people still question the distance. What was wrong with his JCGC last year? Im really curious of this? Why is Blame wanting this such a given. The way he is always hard ridden, and his plodding grinding style IMO is not suited for 10f chasing QR and with the runs L@L and Z will surely come with. Of the big 4, Blame is most likely not to show up IMO.

Horse-for-the-course angle is BIG here.

JCGC turned out to be a good prep for him.

Pedigree says he can handle the trip.

DaTruth · #55 10-24-2010, 01:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smooth Operator

Race is unplayable for me, Rock.

Have way too strong a rooting interest with Z to put serious money on B (or any of the others).

Would need to get at least 9-2 or 5-1 on her … which obviously won't happen…

Why would you need 9-2 on what is pretty close to a sure thing? Certainly if Z runs her race and can handle dirt, the rest are racing for second place. Her place in history and her unbeaten record are on the line.

lemoncrush · #56 10-24-2010, 10:16 AM

[quote=RockHardTen1985;710257]
3- B@T is a toss, UM is 100% horse to beat.QUOTE]

Still waiting anxiously to hear your reasoning behind this. Instead of tossing BOT in the Juvy just because you were so wrong about him in the Hopeful, give us some kind of actual sensible reasoning on why he should be tossed. Current Form, Pedigree, pace scenerio...anything instead of your random cheerleading-like assertions. I'm not saying to bet him at low odds, I just want to know one reason why he should be tossed.

Danzig · #57 10-24-2010, 10:57 AM

i think the big question is what is gained by making selections this far ahead? do you get better odds? a bigger payoff? how can you successfully handicap without having all entries, post positions? what about the weather? any bias on race day? if you don't know all the entries, how can you attempt to figure out how the race will be run?

hockey2315 · #58 10-24-2010, 11:06 AM

These races are so impossibly difficult to handicap, that I think it's beneficial to have ideas at this point. . . it's inevitable to have opinions on horses at this point anyways if you've followed the game as close as most of us have. You get in trouble, though, when you get locked into something and can't adjust to new information.

Danzig · #59 10-24-2010, 12:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

These races are so impossibly difficult to handicap, that I think it's beneficial to have ideas at this point. . . it's inevitable to have opinions on horses at this point anyways if you've followed the game as close as most of us have. You get in trouble, though, when you get locked into something and can't adjust to new information.

which is why i can understand discussion at this point, but not locked in selections. also, i think some get into personal preference, rather than looking with an unbiased point of view. if you have a rooting interest, great. but when money is involved, you have to set aside the rest. there's still a lot of info to take in, also have to see how the horses do coming in.

the_fat_man · #60 10-24-2010, 12:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Why can Blame handle 10f? Because they say he can.
Z can get it. Lucky is more proven then Blame to get it IMO.

QR, well QR has run a race at 10f that might be good enough to win this thing, but people still question the distance.

Blame showed, in the JCJC, that he's not as good going 10F as going shorter. Clearly, if Fly Down was able to change leads, he'd have finished ahead of Blame. Blame probably will make the lead at some point; but he'll get run down by a legitimate 10F horse. His advantage going shorter, the ability to run against the grain, is nullified @ 10F. No doubt he'd be the horse to beat if the race were 9F or less.

Hard to believe that some are continuing to advance the argument that the JCGC was a prep. Why would he need that particular race and not the others he's run this year? Including the win off the long layoff.

LAL shouldn't even be in the conversation.

Hard to believe we're still having a discussion about QR getting 10F.