What do you make of Blame's loss yesterday?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by outofthebox

For some reason, he never looked good to me. He should have been under a strangle hold off those fractions, and not off the bit like he was. Rail Trips been working in 11 and 12 at Aqueduct, and hes struggling to keep up with a 13 pace. Cant figure it. Just a total toss in my mind. Just inflates his odds if your planning on betting him in the classic.

Too much is made about naked fractions like that. Unless you have pace and final time pars and charts - and you can use them to account for the speed of the track - you can't really gauge fractions well.

I have them for every distance at Belmont except 10fs and 12fs... so I'm in the same boat with everyone else.

But, that 10 furlong start at Belmont is right on the first turn - and I'm sure that makes the pace appear slower than it really is.

If anyone remembers last years Jockey Club Gold Cup - two high quality speed horses in Tizway and Quality Road were up front setting a 49.73 pace ... and neither had any answer late for Summer Bird.

49.73 doesn't mean much when you don't have the right information to quantify it.