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#1
08-31-2010, 12:31 PM
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D'bigcat sure as hell didn't disgrace that figure yesterday (running a furlong further than he wants to) and who knows what Fastus Cactus would've done if he didn't bolt at the top of the stretch. This is a bad example of phony figures.
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#2
08-31-2010, 12:38 PM
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Surely, you can't believe that those races were for real? Fastus Cactus only won by 2.4 lengths and D'big Cat by 4.75 lengths. Who was behind them and why are their connections wasting time running them on turf? Is it a methodological issue or a JUICE issue? Maybe Fastus Cactus is a STAKE horse on DIRT (and a relative plug on Poly and turf.)
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#3
08-31-2010, 12:48 PM
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Devilish Due, who ran a 77 (not out of character) in running second to D'bigcat, was an MTO like D'bigcat was. Especially considering what Rudy's been capable of, the 90 for D'bigcat makes plenty of sense. Again, he ran well yesterday considering he clearly doesn't want to go a step beyond six furlongs. I don't know what the Beyer was, I'd guess in the low 80s. Fastus Cactus' number is the more questionable one, but again, he beat an MTO in My Golden Opinion, who was 6+ clear of third and ran a 94. I didn't buy that number because I don't think MGO is capable of that at this point in his career and it made me take a stand against FC. However, like I said, considering FC completely blew the turn, we can't know whether or not he could've run close to the 101. My guess is no, but he was taken out of the race.
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#4
08-31-2010, 01:10 PM
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I haven't looked at the PPs of the horses behind them in those races. But, I suspect, many turfers ran significantly faster than they ever have on dirt.
It's not about someone with an opinion buying into these numbers, as, cleary, neither had a shot (to win) going 7F -- both the distance and the setup were against them. But, these stick out like sore thumbs and, I'd think, that there'd be some work put in towards making sense of them. If it's the case (likely) that they just got the best of it on the front end, given the distance, then the figure should be tweaked. Not like this would be unprecedented.
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#5
08-31-2010, 01:18 PM
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Dixie Night Out (73/76) Cayo Hueso (69/73) Morning Run (68/75) Regal Soul (62/83) Little Alex (58/65) Count Catamount (45/78) So, nobody behind D'bigcat even ran back to their previous dirt top, much less improved on it. Fastus Cactus' race: Subtitles (76/98) Patron Saint (71/88) Estimator (73/89) Sumfun (55/93) A. P. Eddie (51/90) Now obviously, these weren't all 'turf' horses. But other than My Golden Opinion running second behind FC, there's no also-ran fig that jumps out at you as phony high.
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#6
08-31-2010, 01:27 PM
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So, everything in these races ran significantly SLOWER than their best dirt effort? And the winners were the only ones to improve (noticeably).
It's a juice thing then.
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#7
08-31-2010, 01:40 PM
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Not reading closely through what was already written so shoot me if something has been covered or if this isn't relevant, but. . .
This is probably the worst possible case to use for attacking figures considering the players involved. D'bigcat, who was a pretty obvious claim considering the amount of speed he showed at the sales and at two, followed up his 90 two back with an 89 at a distance that isn't his best yesterday. And wasn't he an MTO on the 16th? Broken Home, the only other horse to run back out of the race on the 16th, came back to run 5 points higher after being claimed FROM Dub and Chip Dutrow. Nothing the Cactus did is worth anything considering his behavior throughout the race, but the big fig he earned doesn't seem that out of whack considering the surface and distance changes - especially since he showed an inability to rate on the turf.
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#8
08-31-2010, 01:49 PM
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#9
08-31-2010, 01:18 PM
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Hybrid Mode
