8/29 (SAR): Personal Ensign S. (G1)

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The pace - at the six furlong call - was 27 full points faster than the final time.

So - let's get very conservative and say Persistantly just ran to her 85 Beyer last time out (which came with a 3wide first turn and 5 wide 2nd turn trip - in a race with a lot less pace to set her up)

That would make the pace figure for six furlongs a 112... and you don't get any more conservative than that... the number is probably a lot higher.

When you run a 112 pace figure - with intense head-to-head pressure from the start - you're going to stop at some point.

Assuming you want to go with a 112-85 for this race. That means Life At Ten ran a pace figure of 111 and a final figure of in the mid 70's.

This pace figure is most likely about a 120-to-123 and Persistantly's winning Beyer is about a 92-to-95.

The fact that she crawled home doesn't mean it was a fast pace relative to the speed of the track. And your pace figure dissertation doesn't explain why she's likely to ever get 10 furlongs in a top class race.