Questions for Zenyatta Fans. . .

[DerbyCat]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Yeah I'm not going to knock adding casual fans to the sport. Adding a much larger fan base will get the attention of the networks, so on and so forth blah blah blah.

But to do that you need...

1. better management of the sport
2. lower takeout
3. removal of the tax man
4. braver owners
5. non-despicable owners and trainers with good stock
6. improved facilities
7. more fat charts

Coach knows his sh!t

[tiggerv]

DMR WPS Combined Pool

7/24 - $4,234,464
7/31 - $4,658,515
8/7 - $5,577,436

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by tiggerv

DMR WPS Combined Pool

7/24 - $4,234,464
7/31 - $4,658,515
8/7 - $5,577,436

cool - they probably bet about a million dollars to place on Zenyatta - and the track was stuck with a negative place pool.

[tiggerv]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

cool - they probably bet about a million dollars to place on Zenyatta - and the track was stuck with a negative place pool.

I don't doubt that. $1033223 on her race in the WP pool.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

You're just drooling at the thought of all those easy pickings.

We will see if they prove to be easy pickings.

I was playing as many as 50 or more races a day - seven days a week - on Ehorse's exchange before it went away the first turn .. and in total I had about 11 accounts there - most in my own name and a few for other people.

After about a few months of that - my new nickname became "Auschwitz" because I had lost weight and looked different.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

We will see if they prove to be easy pickings.

I was playing as many as 50 or more races a day - seven days a week - on Ehorse's exchange before it went away the first turn .. and in total I had about 11 accounts there - most in my own name and a few for other people.

After about a few months of that - my new nickname became "Auschwitz" because I had lost weight and looked different.

This was probably against seasoned competition. You don't expect novices to pick up the game as quickly as poker, do you?

The reason I've significantly increased the number of plays I make a day is to see if I can find 'value' playing different tracks. The result is that I find quite of bit of value, some real easy plays. With this, however, comes significantly more pressure in terms of decision making. It's real easy to bet a race incorrectly when you have a few seconds to figure out what you're doing. There's thus a lot of money left on the table. Of course, the pie is larger, balancing things out.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

This was probably against seasoned competition. You don't expect novices to pick up the game as quickly as poker, do you?

There's always like a market setting person or machine in there - it's tough to explain, but he/they set the tone and act like a big fish trying to gobble up all the little minnows. It's frustrating sometimes - but they ensure liquidity and once you get a feel - you can figure out which offers they'll likely match or ignore.

I'd almost always have some action both ways on almost every race.

I've had so many emo meltdowns it wasn't even funny. You could be having a great day - and step into one huge trap and lose 2K on a race.

The worst day I ever had in my entire life betting was opening day of Belmont Spring in 2004. I went zero for the card and had 3 or 4 horses I made significant play against win. I had to lose about 8K or so that one day alone - most of it was my own money. I remember running to KMart to Western Union them money and it was in just in time to get buried some more. I had quite a few awesome runs - but when you get hit, you get hit hard.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by tiggerv

DMR WPS Combined Pool

7/24 - $4,234,464
7/31 - $4,658,515
8/7 - $5,577,436

thanks tiggerv. now, anyone know the usual sat. crowd vs 8/7? that way you could see if the increase in attendance was the same %-wise as the increase in handle. i'm figuring no. tvg said on the radio that a crowd had staked out spots around the paddock starting at the end of race five. obviously those people weren't placing bets if they stood from races five thru nine in one spot.


just saw that it was 10k more than usual...so no, the percentage increase in attendance didn't equate to the same percentage increase in handle. but, still a good day.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Danzig

thanks tiggerv. now, anyone know the usual sat. crowd vs 8/7? that way you could see if the increase in attendance was the same %-wise as the increase in handle. i'm figuring no. tvg said on the radio that a crowd had staked out spots around the paddock starting at the end of race five. obviously those people weren't placing bets if they stood from races five thru nine in one spot.

Del Mar's figures for Saturday go like this:

Attendance: 32,536
On-Track Handle: 3,935,983
In-State: 5,968,638
Inter-State: 9,595,665
Per Capita On-Track: $120.98 (About $110.98 more than that ass-clown in the tank top that TVG showed chanting outside the winner's circle)

On 7/31 these were their numbers:

Attendance: 25,348
On-Track Handle: 3,124,759
In-State: 4,791,554
Inter-State: 8,307,279
Per Capita On-Track: $123.28

On 7/24 these were their numbers:

Attendance: 21,814
On-Track: 2,980,235
In-State: 4,990,118
Inter-State: 7,283,029
Per Capita On-Track: $136.62

By far and away the most positive numbers on Saturday were these (Saratoga 2010 vs. 2009)

In 2009 Saratoga had 39,568 in the place and the total handle was $21,916,837. This year the attendance was a bit lower, 36,658 but the total handle was $24,066,003.

NT

[Athletics005]

I haven't posted here in months, maybe years (have kept reading), but after seeing so many astute handicappers (that I respect) IMO completely miss the mark with this tremendous mare has finally got me out of hiding.

At this point, you have to believe in one of 2 things

1) Zenyatta is simply the luckiest horse ever to live. She runs her A game, max effort every start. It just so happens when she runs a 95, the next best horse runs a 94. When she bring it up to run a 102, the next best horse coincidentally runs a 101. And that 112 just had to be a fluke so lets not go there.....The odds of this happening for 18 straight races is astronomical. A better thoery would be the races are rigged and the jockey's purposely let her win ever race. At least that's statistically possible.

2) Or the crazy theory that she runs to the level of her competition. Zenyatta has many gears, and it only takes watching her races a couple times to see them. Usually she never has to go into 2nd gear (see last race) while others (usually due to Mike Smith underestimating the competition) she needs to into a higher gear to win. Or when she faces superior competition, she can really gear up....While her last race (which earned a mighty 94 beyer) signaled to many of you how crazy zenyatta fans are for claiming her greatness after a race where she beat a weak horse by a head. But just watching the race should clue you in. The pace was 1.15 and change, zenyatta was swung 7 wide, and not only did it not hinder her at all, she was past the leaders in a matter of strides. She was going two to their one. Once she got the lead, she geared down which gave the appearance of closeness when this was by far her easiest race of the year. This signaled to me is the same top form as last year. Remember all those slow beyers before the classic last year due to slow pace?

Why is she different on dirt? Hard to give a definitive answer. But my guess is that she DOES GEAR DOWN ON DIRT TOO. Even when she opens up 3-4 lengths on dirt, she could have gone much faster in that period if there was a horse she had to catch. Why not win by 1-2 lengths like usual? On synthetics shes overcoming such slow paces that even these cheap horses shes beating can fly home and make it seemingly close when Zenyatta gears down. On dirt, Zenyatta tackles the leaders earlier and since they have set a more honest pace, they are tired. And Zenyatta geared down is still running faster than them and pulling away.

Do I think she's the best dirt horse in the world? There is no way to know until she races again real competition on the surface.....But there sure isn't anything in her PP's that give me any hesitation that she will be an absolute dominate force come Classic time. I am with everyone who believes shes be handled with kid gloves. If they didn't want to ship east, at least face the boys out West over her preferred 10F distance. But just because she hasn't be allowed to repeatedly showcase her greatness doesn't mean it doesn't exist.


Quick question: If Zenyatta wins the Classic this year with a 110+ beyer, are the skeptics going to become believers? Or are we going to hear how there was a pace meltdown, or the competition obviously must have been overrated if they lost to her, or that its not hard to win one big race a year when you stay home for the rest of it.

[OldDog]

Originally Posted by Athletics005

I haven't posted here in months, maybe years (have kept reading), but after seeing so many astute handicappers (that I respect) IMO completely miss the mark with this tremendous mare has finally got me out of hiding.

At this point, you have to believe in one of 2 things

1) Zenyatta is simply the luckiest horse ever to live. She runs her A game, max effort every start. It just so happens when she runs a 95, the next best horse runs a 94. When she bring it up to run a 102, the next best horse coincidentally runs a 101. And that 112 just had to be a fluke so lets not go there.....The odds of this happening for 18 straight races is astronomical. A better thoery would be the races are rigged and the jockey's purposely let her win ever race. At least that's statistically possible.

2) Or the crazy theory that she runs to the level of her competition. Zenyatta has many gears, and it only takes watching her races a couple times to see them. Usually she never has to go into 2nd gear (see last race) while others (usually due to Mike Smith underestimating the competition) she needs to into a higher gear to win. Or when she faces superior competition, she can really gear up....While her last race (which earned a mighty 94 beyer) signaled to many of you how crazy zenyatta fans are for claiming her greatness after a race where she beat a weak horse by a head. But just watching the race should clue you in. The pace was 1.15 and change, zenyatta was swung 7 wide, and not only did it not hinder her at all, she was past the leaders in a matter of strides. She was going two to their one. Once she got the lead, she geared down which gave the appearance of closeness when this was by far her easiest race of the year. This signaled to me is the same top form as last year. Remember all those slow beyers before the classic last year due to slow pace?

Why is she different on dirt? Hard to give a definitive answer. But my guess is that she DOES GEAR DOWN ON DIRT TOO. Even when she opens up 3-4 lengths on dirt, she could have gone much faster in that period if there was a horse she had to catch. Why not win by 1-2 lengths like usual? On synthetics shes overcoming such slow paces that even these cheap horses shes beating can fly home and make it seemingly close when Zenyatta gears down. On dirt, Zenyatta tackles the leaders earlier and since they have set a more honest pace, they are tired. And Zenyatta geared down is still running faster than them and pulling away.

Do I think she's the best dirt horse in the world? There is no way to know until she races again real competition on the surface.....But there sure isn't anything in her PP's that give me any hesitation that she will be an absolute dominate force come Classic time. I am with everyone who believes shes be handled with kid gloves. If they didn't want to ship east, at least face the boys out West over her preferred 10F distance. But just because she hasn't be allowed to repeatedly showcase her greatness doesn't mean it doesn't exist.


Quick question: If Zenyatta wins the Classic this year with a 110+ beyer, are the skeptics going to become believers? Or are we going to hear how there was a pace meltdown, or the competition obviously must have been overrated if they lost to her, or that its not hard to win one big race a year when you stay home for the rest of it.

I wish you posted here more often.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Athletics005

I haven't posted here in months, maybe years (have kept reading), but after seeing so many astute handicappers (that I respect) IMO completely miss the mark with this tremendous mare has finally got me out of hiding.

At this point, you have to believe in one of 2 things

1) Zenyatta is simply the luckiest horse ever to live. She runs her A game, max effort every start. It just so happens when she runs a 95, the next best horse runs a 94. When she bring it up to run a 102, the next best horse coincidentally runs a 101. And that 112 just had to be a fluke so lets not go there.....The odds of this happening for 18 straight races is astronomical. A better thoery would be the races are rigged and the jockey's purposely let her win ever race. At least that's statistically possible.

2) Or the crazy theory that she runs to the level of her competition. Zenyatta has many gears, and it only takes watching her races a couple times to see them. Usually she never has to go into 2nd gear (see last race) while others (usually due to Mike Smith underestimating the competition) she needs to into a higher gear to win. Or when she faces superior competition, she can really gear up....While her last race (which earned a mighty 94 beyer) signaled to many of you how crazy zenyatta fans are for claiming her greatness after a race where she beat a weak horse by a head. But just watching the race should clue you in. The pace was 1.15 and change, zenyatta was swung 7 wide, and not only did it not hinder her at all, she was past the leaders in a matter of strides. She was going two to their one. Once she got the lead, she geared down which gave the appearance of closeness when this was by far her easiest race of the year. This signaled to me is the same top form as last year. Remember all those slow beyers before the classic last year due to slow pace?

Why is she different on dirt? Hard to give a definitive answer. But my guess is that she DOES GEAR DOWN ON DIRT TOO. Even when she opens up 3-4 lengths on dirt, she could have gone much faster in that period if there was a horse she had to catch. Why not win by 1-2 lengths like usual? On synthetics shes overcoming such slow paces that even these cheap horses shes beating can fly home and make it seemingly close when Zenyatta gears down. On dirt, Zenyatta tackles the leaders earlier and since they have set a more honest pace, they are tired. And Zenyatta geared down is still running faster than them and pulling away.

Do I think she's the best dirt horse in the world? There is no way to know until she races again real competition on the surface.....But there sure isn't anything in her PP's that give me any hesitation that she will be an absolute dominate force come Classic time. I am with everyone who believes shes be handled with kid gloves. If they didn't want to ship east, at least face the boys out West over her preferred 10F distance. But just because she hasn't be allowed to repeatedly showcase her greatness doesn't mean it doesn't exist.


Quick question: If Zenyatta wins the Classic this year with a 110+ beyer, are the skeptics going to become believers? Or are we going to hear how there was a pace meltdown, or the competition obviously must have been overrated if they lost to her, or that its not hard to win one big race a year when you stay home for the rest of it.

A convincing argument, you are right about the excuses if she wins, outs are already being made post Whitney that the competition this year will be weak.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Athletics005

I haven't posted here in months, maybe years (have kept reading), but after seeing so many astute handicappers (that I respect) IMO completely miss the mark with this tremendous mare has finally got me out of hiding.

At this point, you have to believe in one of 2 things

1) Zenyatta is simply the luckiest horse ever to live. She runs her A game, max effort every start. It just so happens when she runs a 95, the next best horse runs a 94. When she bring it up to run a 102, the next best horse coincidentally runs a 101. And that 112 just had to be a fluke so lets not go there.....The odds of this happening for 18 straight races is astronomical. A better thoery would be the races are rigged and the jockey's purposely let her win ever race. At least that's statistically possible.

2) Or the crazy theory that she runs to the level of her competition. Zenyatta has many gears, and it only takes watching her races a couple times to see them. Usually she never has to go into 2nd gear (see last race) while others (usually due to Mike Smith underestimating the competition) she needs to into a higher gear to win. Or when she faces superior competition, she can really gear up....While her last race (which earned a mighty 94 beyer) signaled to many of you how crazy zenyatta fans are for claiming her greatness after a race where she beat a weak horse by a head. But just watching the race should clue you in. The pace was 1.15 and change, zenyatta was swung 7 wide, and not only did it not hinder her at all, she was past the leaders in a matter of strides. She was going two to their one. Once she got the lead, she geared down which gave the appearance of closeness when this was by far her easiest race of the year. This signaled to me is the same top form as last year. Remember all those slow beyers before the classic last year due to slow pace?

Why is she different on dirt? Hard to give a definitive answer. But my guess is that she DOES GEAR DOWN ON DIRT TOO. Even when she opens up 3-4 lengths on dirt, she could have gone much faster in that period if there was a horse she had to catch. Why not win by 1-2 lengths like usual? On synthetics shes overcoming such slow paces that even these cheap horses shes beating can fly home and make it seemingly close when Zenyatta gears down. On dirt, Zenyatta tackles the leaders earlier and since they have set a more honest pace, they are tired. And Zenyatta geared down is still running faster than them and pulling away.

Do I think she's the best dirt horse in the world? There is no way to know until she races again real competition on the surface.....But there sure isn't anything in her PP's that give me any hesitation that she will be an absolute dominate force come Classic time. I am with everyone who believes shes be handled with kid gloves. If they didn't want to ship east, at least face the boys out West over her preferred 10F distance. But just because she hasn't be allowed to repeatedly showcase her greatness doesn't mean it doesn't exist.


Quick question: If Zenyatta wins the Classic this year with a 110+ beyer, are the skeptics going to become believers? Or are we going to hear how there was a pace meltdown, or the competition obviously must have been overrated if they lost to her, or that its not hard to win one big race a year when you stay home for the rest of it.

The problem is that we are still speculating about a 6 year old horse that has 18 starts and now her entire legacy will boil down to one start and again her competition will play a bigger part in her performance than it should. That just isnt how the game is supposed to be played.

IMO of all the leading contenders she is probably is best suited to win a 1 1/4 race. I just hope she loses so that we don't have more of the idiotic, copy-catting that goes on in this game. That is the reason why big owners seem to feel like there are only 5 guys who can train a stake horse. That is the reason why every horse is now campaigned in kid gloves, start every 7-8 weeks if that. And if she is sucessful (or RA for that matter) in making the entire 365 day year come down to only 1 race (essentially a lottery drawing) that matters then the sport of horse racing is further doomed to obscurity.

[Athletics005]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

The problem is that we are still speculating about a 6 year old horse that has 18 starts and now her entire legacy will boil down to one start and again her competition will play a bigger part in her performance than it should. That just isnt how the game is supposed to be played.

IMO of all the leading contenders she is probably is best suited to win a 1 1/4 race. I just hope she loses so that we don't have more of the idiotic, copy-catting that goes on in this game. That is the reason why big owners seem to feel like there are only 5 guys who can train a stake horse. That is the reason why every horse is now campaigned in kid gloves, start every 7-8 weeks if that. And if she is sucessful (or RA for that matter) in making the entire 365 day year come down to only 1 race (essentially a lottery drawing) that matters then the sport of horse racing is further doomed to obscurity.

I agree that is not how the game is supposed to be played. That is why (despite my admiration for Zenyatta) I firmly believed the HOY should have gone to Rachel Alexandra last year. Her overall campaign was by far more impressive because she was actually allowed to prove her ability repeatedly and therefore should be rewarded with the ultimate prize.

However, just because it may be a bad precedent for the sport, Zenyatta should be the one being judged and not her connections. And sadly for those who feel she can't be judged appropriately by her previous 18 races (either due to surface or competition), her legacy to them will be judged by a single race. I have no problem with people taking that stance. I have a problem with people who feel they can judge her negatively based on her previous 18 races which I find to be an indefensible position. From what I have seen she has already proven herself to be a great mare, but I don't believe we have seen her best performance yet (because she hasn't faced the best competition yet), and she will have to bring that out in the Classic if she is going to prove herself to be the super horse on dirt. It's a shame that she will only have been given the chance to be full out twice in a 20 race career.

[Port Conway Lane]

[quote=Cannon Shell;680759]The problem is that we are still speculating about a 6 year old horse that has 18 starts and now her entire legacy will boil down to one start and again her competition will play a bigger part in her performance than it should.

Excellent point. No matter what happens her legacy will be exaggerated, positively or negatively

IMO of all the leading contenders she is probably is best suited to win a 1 1/4 race. I just hope she loses so that we don't have more of the idiotic, copy-catting that goes on in this game.
The connections of Zenyatta are no more guilty than anyone else in the last 10 years of running a limited schedule. Since when are owners and/or trainers of females expected to run in available races against males? If this trend is recent because of the poor quality of the male division or the brilliance of the female division then why aren't Life At Ten's connections held accountable for their choices ? Blame's 5 race schedule ending in the BCC doesn't inspire me more than anyone else's but if he wins the race where all the big guns meet he will be a deserving winner.