7/28 (SAR): Lake George S. (G2)

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I figured your boy Sciacca gave you a tip over a bowl of Carbonara at King Umberto's.

I don't trust House of Grace at all.

Why dont you trust her?

[hockey2315]

Well. . . For one, I think a lot of the horses she was running against last year have ended up being overrated or disappointments. I guess you could say she needed the last race, but trip wise I didn't think she had any excuse not to blow by those horses - she came to them and they repelled her - and Granted Tiger didn't exactly flatter her today. I also don't think Suroor (Metee) is an upgrade over McPeek. Plus she'll be overbet.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Well. . . For one, I think a lot of the horses she was running against last year have ended up being overrated or disappointments. I guess you could say she needed the last race, but trip wise I didn't think she had any excuse not to blow by those horses - she came to them and they repelled her - and Granted Tiger didn't exactly flatter her today. I also don't think Suroor (Metee) is an upgrade over McPeek. Plus she'll be overbet.

I disagree.... Tapitsfly has yet to run back, so who knows whats up with her. Hatheer just blew a field away at Belmont, Rose Catherine is 2/3 and her loss she DID ALL THE RUNNING EARLY. Het 2 wins have been really strong. Ill give you Smart Seattle though she SUCKS. Really though, what does 2yr old form have to do with now? She is eiether talented or shes not, I think the Suroor is a giant upgrade over Mcpeek.
Last 5 years at Saratoga on turf, pretty simple stat-

Suroor- 7/21, 28%, 52% ITM $2.18 ROI

Mcpeek- 5/39, 9%, 38% ITM $1.58 ROI

Last 5 years at Saratoga, PERIOD

Mcpeek- 12/70, 11%, 41% ITM $1.58 ROI

Suroor- 23/45, 37%, 67% ITM $2.54

Suroor>Mcpeek anyday of the week and ESPECIALLY AT SARATOGA.

[hockey2315]

Hatheer is terrible. . . and her recent win came over yielding ground. Rose Catherine's a sprinter. Obviously I'm a Tapitsfly fan--and I hope she comes back strong--but I'm dubious.

Comparing McPeek's win percentage to Suroor's like that is painfully simple-minded. . . even for you. Their stock is completely different, so what they do with other horses is irrelevant to me. Simply put - I doubt "Suroor" (not really him) has or ever will train this horse in a way that will serve to improve her. How many maiden winners has "he" gotten from Albertrani that never reproduce their form?

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Hatheer is terrible. . . and her recent win came over yielding ground. Rose Catherine's a sprinter. Obviously I'm a Tapitsfly fan--and I hope she comes back strong--but I'm dubious.

Comparing McPeek's win percentage to Suroor's like that is painfully simple-minded. . . even for you. Their stock is completely different, so what they do with other horses is irrelevant to me. Simply put - I doubt "Suroor" (not really him) has or ever will train this horse in a way that will serve to improve her. How many maiden winners has "he" gotten from Albertrani that never reproduce their form?

Again I just threw the 2yr olds out there, what does 2yr old form from 8 months ago have to do with now? The simple minded comment... even for me, is a low blow. You and I both know this, is it safe to say last year you spent more time talking to me about Toga-Belmont then anyone? Im pretty sure my opinion was golden more then once last Summer. Its all good though Brian, Joey understands. Discussing the horses is one thing, I posted some stats, if you wanted to critize it would have been fine, I dont like the shot though.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Hatheer is terrible. . . and her recent win came over yielding ground. Rose Catherine's a sprinter. Obviously I'm a Tapitsfly fan--and I hope she comes back strong--but I'm dubious.

Comparing McPeek's win percentage to Suroor's like that is painfully simple-minded. . . even for you. Their stock is completely different, so what they do with other horses is irrelevant to me. Simply put - I doubt "Suroor" (not really him) has or ever will train this horse in a way that will serve to improve her. How many maiden winners has "he" gotten from Albertrani that never reproduce their form?

McPeek has been absolutely slaughtered with older horses at Saratoga over the last five years (5-74, $1.07) and overall he's far from impressive with them (18%, $1.65). In stakes races for older horses over the last five years, McPeek is 14-196, with an ROI of $0.89. Can he train 2YOs? Absolutely, but I'd hate to risk my money on a McPeek 2YO being a good 3YO.

His 2YOs have rarely held their form and his two stable stars from 2009, Beautician and Noble's Promise, are a combined 0-8 this year and Beautician most recently lost at 3/5 to a filly who was beaten by a city block in the CCA Oaks.

Even if his stock is lesser than Godolphin's, which is an understatement, McPeek's numbers with older horses are not exactly the type that make you say, "Wow, no one could improve on those."

There are fewer nicknames assigned be Indian Charlie that are more appropriate than "McPeeked."

NT

[hockey2315]

I'm not really a fan of his at all. . . and you're basically proving my point. It's highly unlikely that she'll be better this year - and she probably wasn't that good last year. What McPeek does with 3yo+ is equally as irrelevant in this case, isn't it?

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I'm not really a fan of his at all. . . and you're basically proving my point. It's highly unlikely that she'll be better this year - and she probably wasn't that good last year. What McPeek does with 3yo+ is equally as irrelevant in this case, isn't it?

How are you not a fan? It was the basis of your argument vs me. I dont like HOG is a lock, but I expect a BIG LATE RUN. We will see in about 45 hours if that run is big enough.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I'm not really a fan of his at all. . . and you're basically proving my point. It's highly unlikely that she'll be better this year - and she probably wasn't that good last year. What McPeek does with 3yo+ is equally as irrelevant in this case, isn't it?

What McPeek does with older horses sort of gives you a snapshot of where she was likely headed had she stayed in his barn. I think Godolphin's operation, with all of their flaws, is a clear upgrade over McPeek.

It remains to be seen with her but given how horribly Godolphin has done at the Belmont spring-summer meet over the last two years, and how well they did at Saratoga in 2009, there's reason to believe she'll bounce back in here. Whether she was ever any good is also a question that we'll likely get an answer to on Wednesday.

My thought on her all in all is that her effort last time out gives no indication whatsoever of her ability. She should fare better in an honestly run race but is far from a lock in what looks like a contentious field.

NT

[Danzig]

i liked caminadora in her last, and see no reason she can't pull this one off. should be pace for her to close into..
also don't trust house of grace off one start this year, first of july at a mile- third in a field of three.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i liked caminadora in her last, and see no reason she can't pull this one off. should be pace for her to close into..
also don't trust house of grace off one start this year, first of july at a mile- third in a field of three.

I can see knocking HOG at 3-1 ML, but shes 8-1. Even if she gets bet, I cant see her going under 4-1. I think with Ramon from the rail, shes an ok play.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i liked caminadora in her last, and see no reason she can't pull this one off. should be pace for her to close into..
also don't trust house of grace off one start this year, first of july at a mile- third in a field of three.

There are a number of reasons that everyone betting the Lake George should watch the replay of the Regret.

#1 - To see why Julien Leparoux is a vastly superior turf rider to Jose Lezcano, who fought with Queen of the Creek during the first 5 furlongs of that race. Leparoux rode her to perfection this afternoon.

#2 - To see how dreadful Albarado's ride on Dynazaper was. There was absolutely no reason to tackle Go Ask Alex with 5/16ths to go. Of course, then he thinks he's done just inside the eighth pole so he basically stands up before realizing that he might be able to pick up a check, so he flags her a few times with the whip. Leparoux getting back on her is a colossally important rider change.

During all of this, one horse capitalized on the multiple moves that were made into the pacesetter, and that was Caminadora. Could she run well again? Perhaps, but the whole wedding-funeral racing adage is definitely applicable.

NT