Rule of Thumb for wagering at Keeneland

Originally Posted by oracle80

You tell us you have no vested interest in this stuff, yet you consistently shill it. I respect anyone's right to privacy, I really do. But you telling us that you are seeking out Biancone to ask him questions on the backside, reading minutes of a Keeneland meeting, and the funniest was when I caught you(and several people noted it to me in pm's saying good work) telling us how Turfway's handle was up opening day when it hadnt been announced to anyone yet what the handle even was. Your explanation whne I pointed this out was that you had spoken to the mutuel guy about it.
Look, I respect your right to be anonymous and not tell us who you are, but there isn't any way that you don't have some sort of vested interest in Turfway or keeneland or polytrack. NONE!
Do you honestly expect us to believe that Turfway's mutuel guy will just give out info not realeased to the public on handle to anyone.
If I called Turfway now and asked for the mutuel guy to give the meet end stats that havent been realeased yet do you think he would give them to me? How about if RandallScott or PointG called?
You are asking me to believe that you have no connection to Kee/TP/Poly and yet have information on handle and minutes of a meeting that public doesn't get.
Please stop insulting my intelligence ok? and everyone elses. You are shilling for everything they do on here, and attempting to tell us that you have no vested interest and are just a casual fan. Sorry, but a blind man could see thats not the case.

Don't you have a vested interest in the sport. Do you fear your business declining due to the implementation of polytrack?

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

Don't you have a vested interest in the sport. Do you fear your business declining due to the implementation of polytrack?

I think you miss the point Pillow. Many people have a vested interest in the SPORT, which encompasses many things.
I asked if he had a vestetd interest in a specific track or company.

Originally Posted by oracle80

I think you miss the point Pillow. Many people have a vested interest in the SPORT, which encompasses many things.
I asked if he had a vestetd interest in a specific track or company.

And I have said 100 times that I do not.

Originally Posted by eurobounce

And I have said 100 times that I do not.

Ok enough of that.
Euro Jpops and I are starting the Pillowtrack Corp. After very brief conferring, we are asking you to take on the lead role of publicity and propaganda. We are quite impressed with your resume, including first and foremost not only the experience you have running your business, but the incredible enthusiam and steadfast support of polytrack.
We'd like to you to be CFO and head of marketing and propaganda.
This could be very lucrative.
Do you know where we can a good deal of about 100,000 top of the line pillows. I'm in upstate Ny so I think I can handle the feathers.

[SniperSB23]

Can someone give me some good examples of older consistent horses that have gone to polytrack and absolutely run terrible just because of the surface? I've seen lots of 2yos move up or down off of it but that is normal for 2yos on any surface. Premium Tap ran a poor race but you can blame Kent D for his troubles more than the surface. The only major difference I have seen with polytrack is that turf horses like it a lot more than they like the dirt.

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Can someone give me some good examples of older consistent horses that have gone to polytrack and absolutely run terrible just because of the surface? I've seen lots of 2yos move up or down off of it but that is normal for 2yos on any surface. Premium Tap ran a poor race but you can blame Kent D for his troubles more than the surface. The only major difference I have seen with polytrack is that turf horses like it a lot more than they like the dirt.

How about Lawyer Ron? Hes only earned over a mill on dirt. Lemons Forever comes to mind as well, off the board in a 100 grand polycrap race, next out wins the Oaks. Those are pretty good for starters.
If they stayed on poly they'd have been in for a tag after long.

Originally Posted by oracle80

How about Lawyer Ron? Hes only earned over a mill on dirt. Lemons Forever comes to mind as well, off the board in a 100 grand polycrap race, next out wins the Oaks. Those are pretty good for starters.
If they stayed on poly they'd have been in for a tag after long.

One could argue that the Oaks is suspect since Lemons Forever has been pretty much a no show the rest of the year.

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

One could argue that the Oaks is suspect since Lemons Forever has been pretty much a no show the rest of the year.

She still managed to hit the board in grade ones after that.
Bottom line is that she missed the board in a cheap stakes race filled with nobodies and in her next start won the Oaks.
Look, I can see you are pretty good at trying to play devil's advocate with every statement, but people who attempt that don't impress me. Its a very easy thing to do.
You can make up something along those lines for just about every horse can't you?
How about YOU telling us in for oh so infinite wisdom and knowledge about the ones who ran well on Poly and replicated the form on dirt. I promise not to be like you and play Devil's advocate with each one.
Feel free to enlighten us. Thanks!

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by oracle80

How about Lawyer Ron? Hes only earned over a mill on dirt. Lemons Forever comes to mind as well, off the board in a 100 grand polycrap race, next out wins the Oaks. Those are pretty good for starters.
If they stayed on poly they'd have been in for a tag after long.

Lawyer Ron only ran on poly as a 2yo before he'd ever run on dirt. If he were to run on it now and struggle I'd give it some credence but because he ran so poorly on it so early he could have just improved in that first dirt race in the slop on the quirky Keeneland surface. His next start on dirt wasn't until December which for a 2yo has little relevance to how they were running 3-4 months prior. His turf races after the first dirt race were 25 points higher than all his turf starts early in his career so there is a lot of evidence that he was just simply a much better horse later in the year.

Lemons ran twice on polytrack, winning once and finishing a fast closing third in the stakes falling a length short of winning. I don't see how that is so inconsistent with her form.

I'm looking for a good example of an established dirt horse not running well. Say Happy Ticket or Spun Sugar really tank. Then I'd give some more credence to the theory that good dirt horses won't like poly. You know what though, I betcha they wind up running 1-2 because they are the best horses in the race and the best horses won't have a problem with poly.

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Lawyer Ron only ran on poly as a 2yo before he'd ever run on dirt. If he were to run on it now and struggle I'd give it some credence but because he ran so poorly on it so early he could have just improved in that first dirt race in the slop on the quirky Keeneland surface. His next start on dirt wasn't until December which for a 2yo has little relevance to how they were running 3-4 months prior. His turf races after the first dirt race were 25 points higher than all his turf starts early in his career so there is a lot of evidence that he was just simply a much better horse later in the year.

Lemons ran twice on polytrack, winning once and finishing a fast closing third in the stakes falling a length short of winning. I don't see how that is so inconsistent with her form.

I'm looking for a good example of an established dirt horse not running well. Say Happy Ticket or Spun Sugar really tank. Then I'd give some more credence to the theory that good dirt horses won't like poly. You know what though, I betcha they wind up running 1-2 because they are the best horses in the race and the best horses won't have a problem with poly.

Yeah that loss to Top Notch lady with that "fast closing third place finish" was really powerful.
So she misses the board then she gets beat by Top Notch Lady(anybody seen her after that?) and then wins the Oaks. I definitely see the correlation there

Originally Posted by oracle80

I think you miss the point Pillow. Many people have a vested interest in the SPORT, which encompasses many things.
I asked if he had a vestetd interest in a specific track or company.

If he does I see no harm with promoting his vested interest. You're doing the same thing by denouncing poly due to the fact it could have a negative impact on your business.

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

If he does I see no harm with promoting his vested interest. You're doing the same thing by denouncing poly due to the fact it could have a negative impact on your business.

People will always buy horses.

Originally Posted by oracle80

People will always buy horses.

Exactly and people will figure out which bloodline takes to poly and things will even out in the end.

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

Exactly and people will figure out which bloodline takes to poly and things will even out in the end.

They won't. Its not a breeding thing, its not something a horse can be bred for. It defies all evolution and breeding.

Originally Posted by oracle80

They won't. Its not a breeding thing, its not something a horse can be bred for. It defies all evolution and breeding.

I'm not a scientist but I find that highly illogical.

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

Exactly and people will figure out which bloodline takes to poly and things will even out in the end.

Not in our lifetimes...