Rule of Thumb for wagering at Keeneland

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

No, Joel, that is NOT the " bottom line ".

The " bottom line " in that race, regarding Premium Tap, is that with a competent rider/ride he would not have been beaten by ANY horses in that race.

Bad example.

His paycheck was fourth place money....say what you will, he ran fourth...I agree he got a bad ride but thats racing...who knows what would have happened had he gotten through (I thought there was a hole for him and he chickened out to be honest with you and it close through ggod race riding)...yes, he lost a few lengths but I'm not going to annoint ANY horse in the winner's circle on Polytrack just because I thought they had a bad ride and MAY have been best.....who knows, I've seen MANY big middle moves or blow-ups on the far turn on that surface where you are just sure a horse is going to win and then they flatten out....that surface is too hard to figure out for anybody to come on here and say that Premium Tap was the winner with a clean trip...maybe on dirt, but not that crap...I really believe that..

..Oh, and its not like hes a world beater and we can make a case that he was POUNDS the best because he wasn't pounds the best coming in....he barely beat Second of June last out for Gods sake...

Again, thye point is that Poltrack ruins the stakes program at tracks because shippers are at a HUGE disadvantage.....check out all of the stakes run last weekend and the Lane's End result earlier this year.....I've never seen so many longshots win in my life, and likewise I've nevere seen so many horses run horrible who had great dirt form coming in.....