Rule of Thumb for wagering at Keeneland

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I will be surprised if the handle is up and 13% is pretty....ambitious?

I am on the fence but I think the least we can do is pay careful attention and even though I don't plan on betting much, especially early, it is the first good test, at least for me, for polytrack and trying to handicap it.

My gut feeling is that it won't be significantly different but the randomness factor feels like it will increase. If nothing else, I can refute Biancone who told me 95% of horses will perform the same on Polytrack as dirt. I find that hard to believe but he knows better than I do...at least at this point.

One of the joys of handicapping and playing the horses is the adventure and since Polytrack is here, and probably will be appearing at more tracks, it's time to give it a whirl....if not for money then for sport.

13% is pretty ambitious, but I dont think it is not possible. I am also a little cautious when Biacone says his horses will perform on dirt just as they do on PolyTrack. But to me, handicapping and figuring out how to handicap different surfaces, tracks etc etc is what makes this sport great. I look forward to see top class horses compete at PolyTrack.

Originally Posted by eurobounce

13% is pretty ambitious, but I dont think it is not possible. I am also a little cautious when Biacone says his horses will perform on dirt just as they do on PolyTrack. But to me, handicapping and figuring out how to handicap different surfaces, tracks etc etc is what makes this sport great. I look forward to see top class horses compete at PolyTrack.

Just make sure and wake me up when a top class horse wins on polytrack and replicates his dirt form.
After Ball Four, Ghetto, Cohiba, Reigning Court, and BB, lol, I'm not holding my breath.

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Just make sure and wake me up when a top class horse wins on polytrack and replicates his dirt form.
After Ball Four, Ghetto, Cohiba, Reigning Court, and BB, lol, I'm not holding my breath.

The 2yo races were unpredictable because the horses running in them were lightly raced and most were trying a new distance, and around two turns, for the first time. The most fancied runners in the filly and mare race (Prospective Saint, Splendid Blended) looked like they would be gasping for air at the 8th pole - Polytrack does seem to demand more stamina than many surfaces. The mare race winner hadn't tried 2 turns in a very long while (at least 2 years), her pedigree said she should like it, and her form this year was decent in sprints. And the sprint winner had become a different horse with Douglas up; his form was was no worse than most in the field - a mdn win and a n1x win. These fields were not filled with established top class horses to begin with.

[Pedigree Ann]

The reason tracks are installing artificial surfaces instead of better dirt tracks is maintenance costs. A good, deep dirt track that is properly banked on the turns takes a lot of care - to keep the cushion from migrating to the rail on the turns (gravity), to keep it at the right density by harrowing water into it, to keep it from becoming a quagmire in rain or a skating rink in cold. This means a lot of workers and a lot of equipment. Track managers are counting the beans and see that a surface that only needs occasional harrowing will save them beaucoup bucks. The cheap and easy way to keep horses from breaking down more often, as opposed to what we traditionalists would call the right way.

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

The reason tracks are installing artificial surfaces instead of better dirt tracks in maintenance costs. A good, deep dirt track that is properly banked on the turns takes a lot of care - to keep the cushion from migrating to the rail on the turns (gravity), to keep it at the right density by harrowing water into it, to keep it from becoming a quagmire in rain or a skating rink in cold. This means a lot of workers and a lot of equipment. Track managers are counting the beans and see that a surface that only needs occasional harrowing will save them beaucoup bucks. The cheap and easy way to keep horses from breaking down more often, as opposed to what we traditionalists would call the right way.

yeah God Forbid you use long gallops with occasional works not tilted towards seeing how fast the horse can possibly go every 7 days. Shoot if people did that, they might have sounder horses and win more races. Can't have that now can we.

[Round Pen]

Originally Posted by oracle80

yeah God Forbid you use long gallops with occasional works not tilted towards seeing how fast the horse can possibly go every 7 days. Shoot if people did that, they might have sounder horses and win more races. Can't have that now can we.

I like that

Originally Posted by Round Pen

I like that

You are in good company then Round Pen. Frankel and Dutrow like that as well.