I need to listen to ATR more often

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Are the odds better that Rail Trip and Zenyatta face each other this year or that Zenyatta runs in the Breeders Cup Classic?

I think the only chance of Rail Trip and Zenyatta facing each other this year will be in the BC Classic, if they both make it there in one piece.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Keep convincing yourselves that Rail Trip is a s.hitbag and unworthy of a challenge by Zenyatta.

NT

Hes not a shitbag, but she would likely run him down going 10f. Do you disagree?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Hes not a shitbag, but she would likely run him down going 10f. Do you disagree?

If he were to run the race he did in last year's Hol Gold Cup I'm quite confident he'd beat her.

NT

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

If he were to run the race he did in last year's Hol Gold Cup I'm quite confident he'd beat her.

NT

By a lot. . .

What I don't get about Davidowitz's position is how exactly he's evaluating Zenyatta as a "physical entity" or whatever he called her without some sort of perspective. Her figs are slow, her competition is weak and serves to downgrade her races, and she's running on a surface that rewards mediocrity and serves to shorten the gaps between runners. He's watching her in that context - not in a vacuum.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I'm not a big numbers guy and I don't have much confidence in the numbers. I trust my eye more than I trust the numbers. But for argument's sake, let's assume that the numbers are correct and the 108 and 103 numbers were correct. How many lengths would 11 pounds cost a horse? I would guess about 1 1/2 lengths. So at equal weights, Rail Trip would have still run faster. If they both caryy 118 pounds, Zenyatta's number moves up 3 points to 106. So he still ran faster. Not only that, he was geared down. He could have easily won by another length or two. That would move his number up by 2-4 points.

Certain horses hit a threashold with weight, for instance for Zenyatta we know she can run well up to 129, for Rail Trip 129 is a question mark, one that hasn't been answered yet. Until they do it no one can be certain how they will handle it. Regardless some say for every length = 1 lbs, this isn't a concise science, there are some Trainer's that look at weight religiously, as Bobby Frankel once did, we know if he didn't like the weight assignments for a race he would have no qualms scratching a horse. I don't think it's an inconsequencial factor that should just be dismissed nor do I think it's an all determining factor. Every situation is unique, I do believe letting Rail Trip carry 118 in a grade 2 was like handing candy to a child, it couldn't have been any sweeter to Ellis I surmise.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by CSC

Certain horses hit a threashold with weight, for instance for Zenyatta we know she can run well up to 129, for Rail Trip 129 is a question mark, one that hasn't been answered yet. Until they do it no one can be certain how they will handle it. Regardless some say for every length = 1 lbs, this isn't a concise science, there are some Trainer's that look at weight religiously, as Bobby Frankel once did, we know if he didn't like the weight assignments for a race he would have no qualms scratching a horse. I don't think it's an inconsequencial factor that should just be dismissed nor do I think it's an all determining factor. Every situation is unique, I do believe letting Rail Trip carry 118 in a grade 2 was like handing candy to a child, it couldn't have been any sweeter to Ellis I surmise.

I don't know a single person in the business that thinks one length= 1 pound. That is preposterous. It is possible that 5 pounds= 1 length. If 1 length equaled 1 pound, you could put one of those 7 pound apprentices on your horse and expect the horse to move up 7 lengths. That is rediculous.

I do agree with you that it's not an exact science and there are probably some horses that would have a tougher time carrying 129 pounds than other horses. In general, a bigger, stronger horse will be able to carry more weight than a smaller horse.